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Long post warning.....Take time and read through patiently.
Disclaimer: Below post is my personal opinion and all numbers are estimates and all predictions are speculations.... (source - various forums, news articles, CIC immigration data, research and anaylsis of public data and personally collated data)
I have tried to work on some figures based on various draws and CRS data available, as well as taking into account public data on landed immigrant target numbers for the year 2016/2017 and expected numbers for 2018.
Immigration numbers for Economic programs for 2018 is expected to be in the range of 170k-195k . Of this the numbers for EE and PNP may be in the range of 122k-135k.
It is also expected that PNP quotas will be increased as was indicated in the Ministers forum on the 15th September.
The quotas are strict for provinces, however for federal EE program its a range and the program may exceed the upper limit.
Target 2017 = 122700 (EE + PNP)
Total ITAs issued 60960
Approx rejection/decline: 32%
Successful: 41452
Average number of landed immigrant per ITA = 2.35
Total expected landed immigrant based on ITA issued = 97412
Remaining target for 2017 = 122700-97412 = 25288
25288 @ 2.35 landed immigrant = 10760 Successful ITAs
with 32% rejection/decline = 15825 remaining ITAs for 2017
This means with approximate 6 draws remaining the ITA size may well stay within the range of 2600-2800 per draw.
I hope my mathematics above is correct.
This may well mean that we may not see a big drop in CRS is the draw size remains in this range, since CIC is nearing the target for 2017.
Expectation for 2018
It is expected that new immigration targets and PNP quotas will be announced before 01st November. These targets will essentially take effect from 01st January. However there is also an odd possibility that owing to faster processing, CIC may start taking into account the 2018 targets effective November onwards (as those immigrants will land only in 2018 and hence count towards the target of 2018).
This is sure to increase the draw sizes and therefore result in CRS drops.
It is expected that the 2018 targets for EE+PNP will be in the range of 122-135k.
It is also expected that IRCC will invest more money in technology to improve process and make it smoother, faster and simpler. This may however not mean that more immigrants will be accepted.
As of now CIC wants to clear all the backlogs that they have from the paper applications (last few batch remaining), PNPs, CECs. This will have to be done before Parliamentary announcements in March/April.
My prediction for 420+ scores
I would not expect a big drop in upcoming draws as it will largely depend on the ITA size.
With an average of 200+ applicants with scores over 430 entering the pool everyday. It may have been difficult to see the CRS drop below 430 in the near future. However Nominations quotas are all ending soon, so that means fewer 600+ scores and therefore lowered CRS during November-January.
January will see the reset of PNP quotas.
Hence 420 should clear out once the 2018 new numbers are announced and the ITA size increase, which may happen by November/December or worst case early 2018.
My prediction for sub 420 scores.
Since CRS has already dropped to the lowest levels of 413 once, there is no saying it wont touch that again or possible even lower. A year back no one would have given any chance to 430s and yet that is the new average now.
However few figures are not in the favour. Those are more applicants entering the pool with high 420+ scores. More students entering the Canadian shores and annually graduating with Canadian education and hence increased CRS points. So if there is any opportunity for sub 420s to go though the PNP route, they must grab it instead of waiting for the CRS to drop, which may or may not happen.
ICT Categories
2018 seems another promising year for ICT category with Canadian government now wanting to replicate Silicon Valley success in Canada. This means ICT Nocs will start appearing in most OIDs and OINP may yet again offer NOIs to sub 400 CRS Scores. Keep an eye out.
Thats all from my side. As I said the above is just my personal opinion based on my understanding of available data, past trends and expected numbers. (Read Speculation).
Good luck to all aspiring applicants. May the odds forever be in your favour.
#foreverhopeful
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CRS Data link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/4/d/1CNPZqJo7ZoRYiwAeNnrVT68FEVg0MYAOmPoFfx3KXVk/edit#gid=1633880733
