Today's draw was good news really. I've updated my projections.
I had projected 432 +/- 1 for today, so it was right there. With the new information we should expect something like this:
- Draw on August 16 with 3200 ITAs: 426 +/-2
- Draw on August 23 with 3200 ITAs: 431 +/-3
- Draw on August 30 with 3200 ITAs: 438 +/-5
With draws every two weeks from now on, the score should drop below 430 on September 6 and below 420 on November 15.
There's not enough data to see the trend of new profiles for the past week, so these projections have a higher error margin.