I wish good luck to everyone. This my first post to this forum (long one) and started my express entry journey 2 months ago.
Also I'm an econometrician so I've spent too much time with numbers of previous rounds within these months.
I got some basic conclusions and I'd like to share with you guys:
First of all people are keep saying that 70k immigrant target for federal class they should give about 50k more ITAs. That would be correct if receiving ITAs is enough to reach their targets. I guess people receiving ITAs after round 66 could be able to complete their immigration process in 2018. So bad news for CIC but they already failed to reach their targets. On the other hand as soon as they realise this they should increase the number of rounds, ITAs per round or hire some people to quicken up the evaluation process.
If we look at the Score distribution, the statistics are showing that number of ITAs within periods of 30 days determines the lowest score for invitation:
Below 5000 ITAs per 30 days ---> 450+
Around 5000 ITAs per 30 days ---> 440-450
Around 6500 ITAs per 30 days ---> 430-440
Around 7500 ITAs per 30 days ---> 420-430
More than 9000 ITAS per 30 days ---> 400-420
Verbally, if we see one of these scenarios frequently for example, 6500 ITAs per 30 days all year long so the lowest score would go down around 420s but the new application and ITA number will be balanced soon and not possibly go below 420 line. However, if they do 3 rounds per month as January, April, and May 2017, the score could even go down to 400s.
So my optimistic forecast for this year:
Draw 68 (July 28 - August 2, 2017) 435+
Draw 69 (August 16 - August 18, 2017) 425+
Draw 70 (August 30 - September 1, 2017) 415 +
Draw 71 (September 13 - September 15, 2017) 420+
Draw 72 (September 27- September 29, 2017) 415+
Draw 73 (October 11- October 13, 2017) 420+
Draw 74 (October 25 - October 27, 2017) 415+
Draw 75 (November 8 - November 10, 2017) 410+
Draw 76 (November 22- November 24, 2017) 410+
Draw 77 (December 6 - December 8, 2017) 410+
Draw 78 (December 20 - December 22, 2017) 410+
If we take average ITAs per round 3750 that would make 41250 more ITAs this year.
I guess most of the people lurking around here will be gone by Halloween and will be busy with document preparation!
I only got one concern and that is a possible boom in applications after July as people like me will start to realise that Express Entry is actually pretty possible to do nowadays. I won't share my pessimistic forecast to not to break the positive energy of these threads