Ray of Hope 68th Draw

[opopop]

Feel hopeful after read you guys' post

 

[pessacanada]

thanks for your reply. i did calculate and it is around 409. If my wife attempts IELTS and gets average score of 6 in all levels and her WES (bachelors) done, then the point goes to 429.

Yo should have more points than you just mentioned, you will have more points if your spouse did some degree my friend.

PS: Bravo for your IELTS results, all the best for your family members for upcoming ILETS.

 

[pessacanada]

Hello everyone, so today's shiny in my city, so does on the side of DRAW happening, I'm always hopeful and there is draw today, hope to see more ITAs with lower score

 

[pessacanada]

After reading 10 whole pages (you guys tortured me ) I made my conclusion: as usual our Secretary General Andie is right, coz the only catastrophic thing would be stopping EE system, the rest is for timing, I mean we have to be patient and see what's going on and will happen, so everyone I order you to be more positive As your Light Knight, I just signed this order with the permission of our @andieangel hope you now understand where this order comes from

Hope for the best and that would be to see a draw out with 3900 ITAs, CRS 427 (+-3)

 

[andieangel]

After reading 10 whole pages (you guys tortured me ) I made my conclusion: as usual our Secretary General Andie is right, coz the only catastrophic thing would be stopping EE system, the rest is for timing, I mean we have to be patient and see what's going on and will happen, so everyone I order you to be more positive As your Light Knight, I just signed this order with the permission of our @andieangel hope you now understand where this order comes from

Hope for the best and that would be to see a draw out with 3900 ITAs, CRS 427 (+-3)

Yey! That's the spirit!

 

[cnrp]

I wish good luck to everyone. This my first post to this forum (long one) and started my express entry journey 2 months ago.
Also I'm an econometrician so I've spent too much time with numbers of previous rounds within these months.

I got some basic conclusions and I'd like to share with you guys:

First of all people are keep saying that 70k immigrant target for federal class they should give about 50k more ITAs. That would be correct if receiving ITAs is enough to reach their targets. I guess people receiving ITAs after round 66 could be able to complete their immigration process in 2018. So bad news for CIC but they already failed to reach their targets. On the other hand as soon as they realise this they should increase the number of rounds, ITAs per round or hire some people to quicken up the evaluation process.

If we look at the Score distribution, the statistics are showing that number of ITAs within periods of 30 days determines the lowest score for invitation:

Below 5000 ITAs per 30 days ---> 450+
Around 5000 ITAs per 30 days ---> 440-450
Around 6500 ITAs per 30 days ---> 430-440
Around 7500 ITAs per 30 days ---> 420-430
More than 9000 ITAS per 30 days ---> 400-420

Verbally, if we see one of these scenarios frequently for example, 6500 ITAs per 30 days all year long so the lowest score would go down around 420s but the new application and ITA number will be balanced soon and not possibly go below 420 line. However, if they do 3 rounds per month as January, April, and May 2017, the score could even go down to 400s.

So my optimistic forecast for this year:

Draw 68 (July 28 - August 2, 2017) 435+
Draw 69 (August 16 - August 18, 2017) 425+
Draw 70 (August 30 - September 1, 2017) 415 +
Draw 71 (September 13 - September 15, 2017) 420+
Draw 72 (September 27- September 29, 2017) 415+
Draw 73 (October 11- October 13, 2017) 420+
Draw 74 (October 25 - October 27, 2017) 415+
Draw 75 (November 8 - November 10, 2017) 410+
Draw 76 (November 22- November 24, 2017) 410+
Draw 77 (December 6 - December 8, 2017) 410+
Draw 78 (December 20 - December 22, 2017) 410+

If we take average ITAs per round 3750 that would make 41250 more ITAs this year.
I guess most of the people lurking around here will be gone by Halloween and will be busy with document preparation!
I only got one concern and that is a possible boom in applications after July as people like me will start to realise that Express Entry is actually pretty possible to do nowadays. I won't share my pessimistic forecast to not to break the positive energy of these threads

 

[eshahari12]

JUST AFFIRM - THERE IS A DRAW TODAY AND CRS HAS DIPPED BY 10 POINTS!

And who confirmed this?

 

[andieangel]

I wish good luck to everyone. This my first post to this forum (long one) and started my express entry journey 2 months ago.
Also I'm an econometrician so I've spent too much time with numbers of previous rounds within these months.

I got some basic conclusions and I'd like to share with you guys:

First of all people are keep saying that 70k immigrant target for federal class they should give about 50k more ITAs. That would be correct if receiving ITAs is enough to reach their targets. I guess people receiving ITAs after round 66 could be able to complete their immigration process in 2018. So bad news for CIC but they already failed to reach their targets. On the other hand as soon as they realise this they should increase the number of rounds, ITAs per round or hire some people to quicken up the evaluation process.

If we look at the Score distribution, the statistics are showing that number of ITAs within periods of 30 days determines the lowest score for invitation:

Below 5000 ITAs per 30 days ---> 450+
Around 5000 ITAs per 30 days ---> 440-450
Around 6500 ITAs per 30 days ---> 430-440
Around 7500 ITAs per 30 days ---> 420-430
More than 9000 ITAS per 30 days ---> 400-420

Verbally, if we see one of these scenarios frequently for example, 6500 ITAs per 30 days all year long so the lowest score would go down around 420s but the new application and ITA number will be balanced soon and not possibly go below 420 line. However, if they do 3 rounds per month as January, April, and May 2017, the score could even go down to 400s.

So my optimistic forecast for this year:

Draw 68 (July 28 - August 2, 2017) 435+
Draw 69 (August 16 - August 18, 2017) 425+
Draw 70 (August 30 - September 1, 2017) 415 +
Draw 71 (September 13 - September 15, 2017) 420+
Draw 72 (September 27- September 29, 2017) 415+
Draw 73 (October 11- October 13, 2017) 420+
Draw 74 (October 25 - October 27, 2017) 415+
Draw 75 (November 8 - November 10, 2017) 410+
Draw 76 (November 22- November 24, 2017) 410+
Draw 77 (December 6 - December 8, 2017) 410+
Draw 78 (December 20 - December 22, 2017) 410+

If we take average ITAs per round 3750 that would make 41250 more ITAs this year.
I guess most of the people lurking around here will be gone by Halloween and will be busy with document preparation!
I only got one concern and that is a possible boom in applications after July as people like me will start to realise that Express Entry is actually pretty possible to do nowadays. I won't share my pessimistic forecast to not to break the positive energy of these threads

Thank you for you analysis however please explain why do you think that scores will be increasing if there are done in regular 2 weeks intervals? And also I think your analysis is pessimistic one since you see a drop of only few points by each draw and also haven't took in consideration that not everyone who gets ITA will accept it.

 

[pessacanada]

I wish good luck to everyone. This my first post to this forum (long one) and started my express entry journey 2 months ago.
Also I'm an econometrician so I've spent too much time with numbers of previous rounds within these months.

I got some basic conclusions and I'd like to share with you guys:

First of all people are keep saying that 70k immigrant target for federal class they should give about 50k more ITAs. That would be correct if receiving ITAs is enough to reach their targets. I guess people receiving ITAs after round 66 could be able to complete their immigration process in 2018. So bad news for CIC but they already failed to reach their targets. On the other hand as soon as they realise this they should increase the number of rounds, ITAs per round or hire some people to quicken up the evaluation process.

If we look at the Score distribution, the statistics are showing that number of ITAs within periods of 30 days determines the lowest score for invitation:

Below 5000 ITAs per 30 days ---> 450+
Around 5000 ITAs per 30 days ---> 440-450
Around 6500 ITAs per 30 days ---> 430-440
Around 7500 ITAs per 30 days ---> 420-430
More than 9000 ITAS per 30 days ---> 400-420

Verbally, if we see one of these scenarios frequently for example, 6500 ITAs per 30 days all year long so the lowest score would go down around 420s but the new application and ITA number will be balanced soon and not possibly go below 420 line. However, if they do 3 rounds per month as January, April, and May 2017, the score could even go down to 400s.

So my optimistic forecast for this year:

Draw 68 (July 28 - August 2, 2017) 435+
Draw 69 (August 16 - August 18, 2017) 425+
Draw 70 (August 30 - September 1, 2017) 415 +
Draw 71 (September 13 - September 15, 2017) 420+
Draw 72 (September 27- September 29, 2017) 415+
Draw 73 (October 11- October 13, 2017) 420+
Draw 74 (October 25 - October 27, 2017) 415+
Draw 75 (November 8 - November 10, 2017) 410+
Draw 76 (November 22- November 24, 2017) 410+
Draw 77 (December 6 - December 8, 2017) 410+
Draw 78 (December 20 - December 22, 2017) 410+

If we take average ITAs per round 3750 that would make 41250 more ITAs this year.
I guess most of the people lurking around here will be gone by Halloween and will be busy with document preparation!
I only got one concern and that is a possible boom in applications after July as people like me will start to realise that Express Entry is actually pretty possible to do nowadays. I won't share my pessimistic forecast to not to break the positive energy of these threads

Good analysis, Not that bad but I would love to add my prediction to these, by the end of November people with 400 CRS will be celebrating their success and in December we will likely see the BREAK of the wall of CRS 399 and less score, I'm pretty sure about it, coz soon CIC will booming us again with 3800, 3900, even 4000 or more ITAs to get to their established target (I mean PR issuance guys, not ITAs issuance), so hope for the best and we have to be patient and we all get our ITAs
An this very moment, some CIC agents are having their vacation time or other break period, you don't believe me, check out other years of this period.
As @andieangel always repeats, our ITAs are on the way! Yayyyyyy

 

[hahaHHH]

JUST AFFIRM - THERE IS A DRAW TODAY AND CRS HAS DIPPED BY 10 POINTS!

I want to believe!!!

 

[sandhu2012]

I wish good luck to everyone. This my first post to this forum (long one) and started my express entry journey 2 months ago.
Also I'm an econometrician so I've spent too much time with numbers of previous rounds within these months.

I got some basic conclusions and I'd like to share with you guys:

First of all people are keep saying that 70k immigrant target for federal class they should give about 50k more ITAs. That would be correct if receiving ITAs is enough to reach their targets. I guess people receiving ITAs after round 66 could be able to complete their immigration process in 2018. So bad news for CIC but they already failed to reach their targets. On the other hand as soon as they realise this they should increase the number of rounds, ITAs per round or hire some people to quicken up the evaluation process.

If we look at the Score distribution, the statistics are showing that number of ITAs within periods of 30 days determines the lowest score for invitation:

Below 5000 ITAs per 30 days ---> 450+
Around 5000 ITAs per 30 days ---> 440-450
Around 6500 ITAs per 30 days ---> 430-440
Around 7500 ITAs per 30 days ---> 420-430
More than 9000 ITAS per 30 days ---> 400-420

Verbally, if we see one of these scenarios frequently for example, 6500 ITAs per 30 days all year long so the lowest score would go down around 420s but the new application and ITA number will be balanced soon and not possibly go below 420 line. However, if they do 3 rounds per month as January, April, and May 2017, the score could even go down to 400s.

So my optimistic forecast for this year:

Draw 68 (July 28 - August 2, 2017) 435+
Draw 69 (August 16 - August 18, 2017) 425+
Draw 70 (August 30 - September 1, 2017) 415 +
Draw 71 (September 13 - September 15, 2017) 420+
Draw 72 (September 27- September 29, 2017) 415+
Draw 73 (October 11- October 13, 2017) 420+
Draw 74 (October 25 - October 27, 2017) 415+
Draw 75 (November 8 - November 10, 2017) 410+
Draw 76 (November 22- November 24, 2017) 410+
Draw 77 (December 6 - December 8, 2017) 410+
Draw 78 (December 20 - December 22, 2017) 410+

If we take average ITAs per round 3750 that would make 41250 more ITAs this year.
I guess most of the people lurking around here will be gone by Halloween and will be busy with document preparation!
I only got one concern and that is a possible boom in applications after July as people like me will start to realise that Express Entry is actually pretty possible to do nowadays. I won't share my pessimistic forecast to not to break the positive energy of these threads

hmmmmmm.....

 

[Sararohit]

I don't want to believe anyone.

I am making only one wish since Wednesday that each one is us should get PR later or sooner.

 

[Wacky1.nash]

I wish good luck to everyone. This my first post to this forum (long one) and started my express entry journey 2 months ago.
Also I'm an econometrician so I've spent too much time with numbers of previous rounds within these months.

I got some basic conclusions and I'd like to share with you guys:

First of all people are keep saying that 70k immigrant target for federal class they should give about 50k more ITAs. That would be correct if receiving ITAs is enough to reach their targets. I guess people receiving ITAs after round 66 could be able to complete their immigration process in 2018. So bad news for CIC but they already failed to reach their targets. On the other hand as soon as they realise this they should increase the number of rounds, ITAs per round or hire some people to quicken up the evaluation process.

If we look at the Score distribution, the statistics are showing that number of ITAs within periods of 30 days determines the lowest score for invitation:

Below 5000 ITAs per 30 days ---> 450+
Around 5000 ITAs per 30 days ---> 440-450
Around 6500 ITAs per 30 days ---> 430-440
Around 7500 ITAs per 30 days ---> 420-430
More than 9000 ITAS per 30 days ---> 400-420

Verbally, if we see one of these scenarios frequently for example, 6500 ITAs per 30 days all year long so the lowest score would go down around 420s but the new application and ITA number will be balanced soon and not possibly go below 420 line. However, if they do 3 rounds per month as January, April, and May 2017, the score could even go down to 400s.

So my optimistic forecast for this year:

Draw 68 (July 28 - August 2, 2017) 435+
Draw 69 (August 16 - August 18, 2017) 425+
Draw 70 (August 30 - September 1, 2017) 415 +
Draw 71 (September 13 - September 15, 2017) 420+
Draw 72 (September 27- September 29, 2017) 415+
Draw 73 (October 11- October 13, 2017) 420+
Draw 74 (October 25 - October 27, 2017) 415+
Draw 75 (November 8 - November 10, 2017) 410+
Draw 76 (November 22- November 24, 2017) 410+
Draw 77 (December 6 - December 8, 2017) 410+
Draw 78 (December 20 - December 22, 2017) 410+

If we take average ITAs per round 3750 that would make 41250 more ITAs this year.
I guess most of the people lurking around here will be gone by Halloween and will be busy with document preparation!
I only got one concern and that is a possible boom in applications after July as people like me will start to realise that Express Entry is actually pretty possible to do nowadays. I won't share my pessimistic forecast to not to break the positive energy of these threads

Super like!!!

This is by far the best analysis I have seen here. Me thinks me in love

 

[andieangel]

Good analysis, Not that bad but I would love to add my prediction to these, by the end of November people with 400 CRS will be celebrating their success and in December we will likely see the BREAK of the wall of CRS 399 and less score, I'm pretty sure about it, coz soon CIC will booming us again with 3800, 3900, even 4000 or more ITAs to get to their established target (I mean PR issuance guys, not ITAs issuance), so hope for the best and we have to be patient and we all get out ITAs
An this very moment, some CIC agents are having their vacation time or other break period, you don't believe me, check out other years of this period.
As @andieangel always repeats, our ITAs are on the way! Yayyyyyy

As @pessacanada said!

 

[CCanadavis]

has anyone had any trouble opening up the completed wes report, it it this morning but its just blank when i open..just need my certificate number n can apply for a possible draw today ?

or was the cert number different to the reference number?

thanks