Ray of Hope 68th Draw

[kuber101]

The only upside of OINP "temporary halting" is that there will be fewer above 600 CRS scores as we go into late summer and autumn. That added with consistent over 3000 ITA per draw will bring the scores down at a faster speed.

 

[StevieFray]

Well at this point I want yo agree with someone who once said Ontario's Business strategy is excellent. This move is yet another conformation. So even if they open again soon, people will no longer gamble with the NOIs but jump at the opportunity for fear of stuffs like this

Well you didn't lie about that, like I ALWAYS been telling peeps, CIC and Ontario are working together. Yes it is my little conspiracy but so far, I've been right on the money. lol Now that there is a hold on intake, there is a high likelihood of a draw occurring tomorrow because CIC knows exactly the CRS score to use given those new nominations. In other words Ontario is close to getting their ~4.2 mill CAD (1500cad x 3515 nominations)..Probably even more if some folks were rejected or simply withdrew.

Ultimately accept the NOI if your score is not over the last CRS score.

 

[Pranavpal]

Guys I found something interesting here, is a open source information from the government of Canada:

http://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/593e9165-c6ce-4f9b-b519-03d315f92cd4

As of 31st May 2017, there are around 47876 ITAs issued but only 16630 submitted their application

One ITA might end up with 2ppl, even 3,4 ppl if possible, so the approximately new PRs might be *I don't know, bad at math

That's unbelievable, 1/3 seems quite low !
I gotta read that document throughly

 

[qwerty69]

The only upside of OINP "temporary halting" is that there will be fewer above 600 CRS scores as we go into late summer and autumn. That added with consistent over 3000 ITA per draw will bring the scores down at a faster speed.

This is correct. It'll help

 

[CCanadavis]

Hi, currently waiting on WES issue the ECA, status is "Evaluation report being prepared for delivery", have the english test done and the results, Visa is up in 1 month, the CIC website points calculator is saying I have 441, anyone know how reliable this is ? Iv heard it will be less ?

Hoping somehow to get an email today or tomorrow with the ECA to get in the upcoming draw but seems unlikely

Thanks

 

[Timmyfemmy]

The only upside of OINP "temporary halting" is that there will be fewer above 600 CRS scores as we go into late summer and autumn. That added with consistent over 3000 ITA per draw will bring the scores down at a faster speed.

OINP knows that a lot of people will register once they see the CRS tomorrow.

Anyways, you can't tell that >600 will reduce because of the temporary hold. Do recall that people who already submitted and those who have created profiles already will keep getting Nomination still.

 

[Timmyfemmy]

I imagine 431-440 will now be carrying up to 2000 candidates.
I wish it was possible to see a further breakdown that can reflect score distribution for people with CRS 431 - 440.
In this lies the secret or clue to what the next CRS would be.
If >600 now has 300 people, 451 -600 has 800 (this band filled up to 764 in two weeks) and 441-450 now has 100 people also. A large draws size may be needed to bring down the CRS cut-off in the range 431-440

All the best to everyone out there.

Prediction for 68th Draw (25.07.2017) : 435 +/- 1

Breakdown of pool candidates with score in the band 431-440. This band should have a minimum of 2000 applicants by draw date. We can imagine that the population is not evenly distributed across the score band that i have given below.

440 --> 150 (New pool entrants having 440 cannot logically be more than 200. All the CRS 440 made the last draw. Besides it is not easy to come by that score )

Progressively across the bands, the number of candidates will be higher as score in the band decreases. This is logical since even in the pool, the larger majority have lower score. We can expect the distribution in this band to also follow same pattern observed in the pool. Hence, the distribution below is logical.
437 - 439 --> 400
434 - 436 --> 600
431 - 433 --> 850


Refer to the quote
>600 300
451 -600 800
441-450 1000
Total 2100

If draw size is atleast 3200, just like last draw, Then the CRS will fall enough to take in people in the band 434 - 436. For any larger draw size, the chance of the CRS cut-off falling below 435 becomes considerably high.

Once again, all the best.

Now if this draw doesn't happen tomorrow, I hope people don't go looking for selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs)

 

[kuber101]

OINP knows that a lot of people will register once they see the CRS tomorrow.

Anyways, you can't tell that >600 will reduce because of the temporary hold. Do recall that people who already submitted and those who have created profiles already will keep getting Nomination still.

Yes ofcourse there would be some people whose nomination applications are in process and they will probably come through over the next few weeks. Thats why I said " as we go into late summer and autumn".....

and I quote from OINP website - "The program will also place a hold on sending any additional Notifications of Interest for the Human Capital Priorities stream"

 

[Pranavpal]

That's unbelievable, 1/3 seems quite low !
I gotta read that document throughly

So i did some calculations -
First of all, we gotta minus all the draws which happened after 31 st may and 45 days before that( because it takes time to fill your ITA application) so, if we remove all this, we are left with atleast 28,928 applicants who had an ita and out of which only 16,630 applications went into processing. So to conclude, the rate of ITA being processed should be around 55%.

P.S. - link used for calculating (1st june '17 update ) http://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/593e9165-c6ce-4f9b-b519-03d315f92cd4

So if we pessimistically assume that 40% of applicants will not be rejected or cancelled then cic will issue approx 1,30,000 ITA's. So with 55k ITA already been issued and only 22 weeks are left the draw size should be around 3300-3500.

 

[thourb]

Hi, currently waiting on WES issue the ECA, status is "Evaluation report being prepared for delivery", have the english test done and the results, Visa is up in 1 month, the CIC website points calculator is saying I have 441, anyone know how reliable this is ? Iv heard it will be less ?

Hoping somehow to get an email today or tomorrow with the ECA to get in the upcoming draw but seems unlikely

Thanks

When I got that message I got ECA the following day. It was a fortnight ago and I got the email from WES one hour after the draw was made, hence I missed out on the last draw by just a couple of hours. EE profile was all ready to submit except for WES reference!

Hope you get more lucky than I did!

 

[tjsecondtry]

The only upside of OINP "temporary halting" is that there will be fewer above 600 CRS scores as we go into late summer and autumn. That added with consistent over 3000 ITA per draw will bring the scores down at a faster speed.

I don't think this is logically correct. They halted because they have a very large number of people already started in the process to get 600 points. I think there will be a regular stream of nominations.

 

[CCanadavis]

When I got that message I got ECA the following day. It was a fortnight ago and I got the email from WES one hour after the draw was made, hence I missed out on the last draw by just a couple of hours. EE profile was all ready to submit except for WES reference!

Hope you get more lucky than I did!

Thanks for the reply. Hopefully youl sail through tomorrow.

What it is exactly im waiting for, a new reference number to put on the EE profile or? or is it the same reference number that i have been using with WES all along ?

Thanks

 

[andieangel]

Guys girls, just have smth to say to everyone and especially those who just lost their hope: we all know that it's important to immigrate to Canada and hope we will organize our parties in Yukon for sure and probably the next one in Quebec city in 2018 And today we saw the news about a Hold on Intake announced by Ontario, yes may be it is not easy for those who have lower score (below 400) and the ones who were on the brink of accepting NOI, but on the bright side, from now on we should see next 2-3 draws' score and hopefully it decreases gradually (at least I believe so).
It said it is temporary hold however we don't know how long. That's why my bigger advice is that please wait and follow all the changes and analyse next 2-3 draws, may be it's good sign for everybody coz there won't be those 600 receivers by Ontario for a while.
Keep your hope high and alive, I feel our ITAs are coming sooner than expected This is ROH!

All the best to everyone, please do not fall asleep during draw announcement tomorrow
Tomorrow is gonna be the day for some people and hope to see CRS 425 (+-3) with more ITAs, don't throw your stones at me, I'm just that optimist guy Our refresh party is on the way, let's to F5 tomorrow from 9:00 AM Toronto time

You are true positive pillar of this thread! Well done! Due to this I name you the Light Knight! Because you turn dark into light! Since I'm Secretary General this is in my jurisdiction! Keep it up Knight!

 

[StevieFray]

You are true positive pillar of this thread! Well done! Due to this I name you the Light Knight! Because you turn dark into light! Since I'm Secretary General this is in my jurisdiction! Keep it up Knight!

Haha, that is a good one.

 

[pessacanada]

You are true positive pillar of this thread! Well done! Due to this I name you the Light Knight! Because you turn dark into light! Since I'm Secretary General this is in my jurisdiction! Keep it up Knight!

I'm so pleased to have such honour my Lady. As your Light Knight I order everyone to be like me (positive) And we all get our Light ITAs very soon

PS: I'm at your service your Honour