The time stamp throws a whole new set of possibilities.
1. As the points drop, the # of candidates in each point would increase and thus CIC would have to compulsorily draw higher number for a cut off points and the draw size may increase beyond 4K. So to restrict the draw size with the falling points scenario, CIC would differentiate basis seniority (Time stamp). So CIC expects that the points will have to be dropped to meet the quota.
2. The rejection rate of candidates who have received ITA is very high this year, one of the reasons being multiple profiles. I cant say to what extent, but this would dissuade people from having multiple profile created as the newer profile might not get an invitation, which is anyway a wasted ITA. Although this would only work in the 400 - 420 zone, as I think people more than that would anyway get invited multiple times due to higher points. Thus CIC is trying to drive some sort of discipline among the candidates.
3. However, this complicates the OINP situation. If you recreate a profile for OINP, you might get a nomination but not necessarily an ITA. So either OINP will have to drop the new profile clause and dip in the pool, which is a good thing for the existing profiles, or drop the 400 points barrier.
So CIC has again added an unknown parameter in the equation and there goes all the speculations and calculations out of the window. However, I strongly feel that the points are gonna fall and the draw size would hover around 3.5K - 3.8K.