Ray of Hope 62nd Draw

[umar127]

I hope I am wrong but I do not see score coming down in next draw. More than 2000 people already in 410-420 and that was until April 28. Guess how many more entered the pool? I thinks a lots. So my prediction is 427-430 CRS next draw if May 12 or 430 n above if May 17

 

[amarsale]

Well as a matter of fact, the overall candidates for 401- 450 is declining. Apr 13: around 9000 candidates. Apr 28: 7,178.
There is not much of activities happening between 450-600 (unless off course this mystical 2000 candidates appearing from nowhere ).
So there is still much more hope for 400+ guys if this declining trend continues. ;D

I am just curious, how can you say that 2000 candidates appeared between 450-600, even when the distribution list says 1023 ??

 

[monavy]

I hope I am wrong but I do not see score coming down in next draw. More than 2000 people already in 410-420 and that was until April 28. Guess how many more entered the pool? I thinks a lots. So my prediction is 427-430 CRS next draw if May 12 or 430 n above if May 17

if you observe carefully, there is a reduction in numbers between 400-410 and from 380-400. Most part of this increase this time is due to the recent ielts result.

 

[andieangel]

if you observe carefully, there is a reduction in numbers between 400-410 and from 380-400. Most part of this increase this time is due to the recent ielts result.

Exactly.

 

[abhishek_89]

I did a recalculation based on the April 28 CRS score distribution data..If the draw was yesterday (May 3), CRS 420 would have been the cut off..Around 210 unlucky folks (with CRS ranging 420-422) missed out on an ITA in the 61st draw due to this 1 day delay in the draw..

 

[abhishek_89]

Those with CRS below 420 should pray for draws to happen with only 1 week gap..If not the CRS cut off would remain around the 420 mark if it is 2 week gap between draws..Basically, in 2 weeks/14 days, the EE pool has around 3700-3800 new folks added with CRS 420 and above.This is the current trend..

 

[andieangel]

I hope I am wrong but I do not see score coming down in next draw. More than 2000 people already in 410-420 and that was until April 28. Guess how many more entered the pool? I thinks a lots. So my prediction is 427-430 CRS next draw if May 12 or 430 n above if May 17

You are wrong, next cut off 413-415.

 

[andieangel]

Those with CRS below 420 should pray for draws to happen with only 1 week gap..If not the CRS cut off would remain around the 420 mark if it is 2 week gap between draws..Basically, in 2 weeks/14 days, the EE pool has around 3700-3800 new folks added with CRS 420 and above.This is the current trend..

You are wrong, cut off will hit 400 till June, they need new immigrants who will land even during this year, to do that and to complete their quota they need to brake 400 limit, which will also happen this year. This what are you saying was said before in the exact same way for 450, and then for 440 and then for 430 and now you are saying for 420... Just sit and watch, 400 is coming!

 

[abhishek_89]

I just came here to tell everyone do not panic. Almost 1.2K above 450 means PNPs were issued. It will come back down in the next draw.
Also, the number in lower segments has not increased significantly. Just a slight raise in candidates between 400-10. And only 2K between 410-420. That is really great for people who already in the pool!

And it will go below 410 in the next draw!

All those who have PNP nominations would have above 600 points..If you see the CRS distribution on April 28, there are 1000+ people added within the 450-600 range in 9 days after the April 19th draw, which means without PNP's..Mostly the CEC folks..So PNPs are not contributing to this rise in CRS..I have been researching on the CRS distribution data for almost a month now..And I have observed there are lots of folks getting added newly every other day in the EE pool..which in itself is sufficient to have a cut off around 420 CRS in 2 weeks..With the ITA count hovering between 3700-3800..

 

[monavy]

All those who have PNP nominations would have above 600 points..If you see the CRS distribution on April 28, there are 1000+ people added within the 450-600 range in 9 days after the April 19th draw, which means without PNP's..Mostly the CEC folks..So PNPs are not contributing to this rise in CRS..I have been researching on the CRS distribution data for almost a month now..And I have observed there are lots of folks getting added newly every other day in the EE pool..which in itself is sufficient to have a cut off around 420 CRS in 2 weeks..With the ITA count hovering between 3700-3800..

count the difference between total pool member and you will notice a reduction of about 600. so net addition to the pool in these 2 weeks of about 3200 people yet there were 3800 people above 423. how did this happen? because 1. Many people improved their scores. 2. Many people who had high scores declined the previous ITAs and got again. 3 people with high scores couldnot complete and submit their applications in 90 days and came back into the pool.

Chill out. all these points to a decrease in scores in coming draws although a gradual one.

 

[abhishek_89]

You are wrong, next cut off 413-415.

Next cut off is not fixed, it is varying based on the date of the next draw..

If the next draw happens tomorrow, yes it can reach close to 400 immediately..If there are 3 consecutive draws this month, then yes again the cut off can reach 400 by end of this month..

But then if the next draw is after 3 weeks, the cut off can go above 430 too..

So the only hope is draws happening with lesser gaps..Preferably 1 week gaps..Like what happened in April (3 draws in 3 weeks)..

 

[andieangel]

count the difference between total pool member and you will notice a reduction of about 600. so net addition to the pool in these 2 weeks of about 3200 people yet there were 3800 people above 423. how did this happen? because 1. Many people improved their scores. 2. Many people who had high scores declined the previous ITAs and got again. 3 people with high scores couldnot complete and submit their applications in 90 days and came back into the pool.

Chill out. all these points to a decrease in scores in coming draws although a gradual one.

You are right, points under 2 and 3 make bad statistics and also are reason for scores to go up again on our expense, don't think that's fer

 

[abhishek_89]

You are wrong, cut off will hit 400 till June, they need new immigrants who will land even during this year, to do that and to complete their quota they need to brake 400 limit, which will also happen this year. This what are you saying was said before in the exact same way for 450, and then for 440 and then for 430 and now you are saying for 420... Just sit and watch, 400 is coming!

The number of ITA's being issued in 2015 and 2016 in each draw was around 750-1500..This year the number of ITA's being issued for each draw is around 3750..This is the reason why the CRS cut offs came below 450 this year..

Basically, the CRS cut off is determined by the number of ITA's they are issuing in each draw..

If the ITA counts remain around 3750 per draw, then the points I have mentioned in my previous post holds good..

 

[umar127]

if you observe carefully, there is a reduction in numbers between 400-410 and from 380-400. Most part of this increase this time is due to the recent ielts result.

The reduction in 410-420 is due to the 60th draw which had cutoff 415

 

[umar127]

Those with CRS below 420 should pray for draws to happen with only 1 week gap..If not the CRS cut off would remain around the 420 mark if it is 2 week gap between draws..Basically, in 2 weeks/14 days, the EE pool has around 3700-3800 new folks added with CRS 420 and above.This is the current trend..

Agree. 2 weeks draw will keep score around 420s, even higher may be