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Ray of Hope 62nd Draw

Umidjon90

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its very quite in here today, its the first Wednesday i see this thread drops to a position lower than the first 3 threads.
maybe the ray of hope is fading due to the many negative replies in the last week !!
That's probably because of the increase in crs cut off to 423, but next threads will be lively again because of the probable decrease
 

unicorns

Star Member
Apr 19, 2017
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its very quite in here today, its the first Wednesday i see this thread drops to a position lower than the first 3 threads.
maybe the ray of hope is fading due to the many negative replies in the last week !!
Someone like me at 405, still waiting for ECA can't be very hopeful right now. Even if the cut-off score drops low enough to favor me, I can't do anything without my ECA. So all I can do is lurk.
 

_Harry_

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Sep 29, 2016
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That's probably because of the increase in crs cut off to 423, but next threads will be lively again because of the probable decrease
How can you say there will be decrease? :)
We might need to consider this fact that there could be increase from 423 as well !!
 

Dockrrish

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Jun 20, 2016
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I think it's a sign that draw will be held this week.
Normally they do maintenance on Monday-Tuesday
But as draw is planned this week, cic decided to do maintenance at the weekend.
Therefore, I believe we can see draw this week between Wed and Friday with CRS 415.
414 bro
 

Umidjon90

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How can you say there will be decrease? :)
We might need to consider this fact that there could be increase from 423 as well !!
Well, of course i am not sure but if the draw takes place this week it will probably decrease significantly, and the next threads will be lively with hope :)
 

_Harry_

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Sep 29, 2016
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Apart from the regular incoming stream of new candidates in the EE pool, are we expecting any unusual EE candidate flow in near future?
 

fahadsheikh

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its very quite in here today, its the first Wednesday i see this thread drops to a position lower than the first 3 threads.
maybe the ray of hope is fading due to the many negative replies in the last week !!
I agree with that part. I am at 393 and my hopes are sky high, so high that I have decided to wait rather than taking IETLS again. People who are saying score will never fall below 400, few months ago they were saying it will never fall below 450, well guess what, it did and it fell hard!!
So everyone above and below 400 like me, keep your head high and be positive. After all, No Troll Left Behind!
 

fahadsheikh

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Apart from the regular incoming stream of new candidates in the EE pool, are we expecting any unusual EE candidate flow in near future?
Getting into the pool is not as easy at it might seem. Everyone has to go through the ECA and pain in the *peep peep* IELTS before. Of course, new people will join in and are still joining in, but people getting out are more than the people coming in. Which is why the fall of cutoff is inevitable.
 

andieangel

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How can you say there will be decrease? :)
We might need to consider this fact that there could be increase from 423 as well !!
How can you say that there might be increase? Where is the logic in that? Only in more than 3500 people at this moment in the pool have more than 423 which is impossible! Don't say things which you can't back up.
 

Umidjon90

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I agree with that part. I am at 393 and my hopes are sky high, so high that I have decided to wait rather than taking IETLS again. People who are saying score will never fall below 400, few months ago they were saying it will never fall below 450, well guess what, it did and it fell hard!!
So everyone above and below 400 like me, keep your head high and be positive. After all, No Troll Left Behind!
I appreciate your optimism bro, it might well go below 400, but I think if you can you should work to improve your indicators (IELTS, etc). If points are not reaching out to you then you reach them by improving
 
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_Harry_

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Sep 29, 2016
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How can you say that there might be increase? Where is the logic in that? Only in more than 3500 people at this moment in the pool have more than 423 which is impossible! Don't say things which you can't back up.
Chances of it to go above 423 is if we don't have any draw today..and that is what I am basing it on.
On average, there are around 2k new applicant joining the pool on weekly basis having CRS 400+. If the draw happens after every 2 weeks, there is very slim hope that cut off will go 415 or below. You are optimistic - I agree and appreciate, I am just trying to be realistic here.
 
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_Harry_

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Sep 29, 2016
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Getting into the pool is not as easy at it might seem. Everyone has to go through the ECA and pain in the *peep peep* IELTS before. Of course, new people will join in and are still joining in, but people getting out are more than the people coming in. Which is why the fall of cutoff is inevitable.
In case there is regular inflow of candidates. But I read it somewhere that in June, fresh graduates from colleges also join the pool (having avg CRS of 440 or more) and thus the reason of my question.
If there is such unusual inflow of candidates, chances are the pool will have abundance of CRS 440+ candidates and thus cut off will go up rather come down.
 

fahadsheikh

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i appreciate your optimism bro, it might well go below 400, but I think if you can you should work to improve your indicators (IELTS, etc). If points are not reaching you out then you reach them by improving
I will eventually, but I want to see the trend after June changes come into effect. However, it looks like even after June, there won't be much difference at all. I am saying this because:

1. Let's say people at 400 or so have siblings, they will receive 15 additional points which will put them at a position to have ITA. However, it is very likely they will already have ITA before the changes.
2. People below 400 recieve 15 additional points, they will fall at max between 420-30, in this case, they will be flushed out right in the very next draw and pool will be back to normal.
3. As for the francophones, I seriously doubt we have a considerable amount of such people in the pool. Let's be honest about it, most of the people in the pool are from developing countries, and most of them from Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. And I seriously doubt most of them, if not all, do have any knowledge of French language.
4. A few months ago, like 3 or 4 months, we had slightly above 52K candidates in the pool. As of April 28, we have 48K. And that includes the people who joined in between, which proves my statement that people getting out of the pool are more than the people joining in. Hence, resulting in a significant fall in CRS and making it inevitable.
5. Fresh graduates might join in and will be set for the very next draw. In such case, we will observe a rise in the score, just like the last draw, after which it will come back again to normal. Not whole Canada is going to join in the pool.

This is why I am hopeful.
 
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omarkhan

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Guys, if at all there is a draw today, what time should we expect it? Hope there is one today to bring down the score.