Ray of hope 61st draw

[Raorulz]

Re: Ray of hope 61th draw

Ray of Hope 60th Draw must have been the shortest one ever lol. I have been following hope threads since 53rd and it is nice to see how the demography changes with scores declining. There was a general thinking that score will continue to decline with less difference couple of months ago, but it is consistently declining at 6-9 points. Hence it is not too long before 400 mark will be breached.

For those who think June update will make score to rise, it of course will for couple of draws and once the affected profile is cleared, normal service will resume. Additional points for French language will not affect as much at all unless half of francophone will decide to migrate to Canada. Only thing that can drive points to go upwards will be Canadian graduates and that too will be cleared with few draws. So guys, i believe, nothing too much to worry about. I will benefit with June update, i also studied French until level 4 but trust me it is difficult. Attaining CBL 7 in TEF is no easy feat. I have stopped learning French for now and my complete focus is on IELTS. Unfortunately my last test go messed up big time. My confidence is all time low for IELTS. But i will keep fighting for my Canadian dream and i wish same to all of you. Cheers

A very dumb question: how to add IELTS and CRS Score in my signature. kindly help.

 

[Confused_oldman]

Re: Ray of hope 61th draw

Can anybody post April 7th data here. I know someone posted this, am unable to find it.

 

[Confused_oldman]

Re: Ray of hope 61th draw

A very dumb question: how to add IELTS and CRS Score in my signature. kindly help.

You need to post about 20 times, i think, before you can do that.

 

[CANCANADA]

Re: Ray of hope 61th draw

Looking at the April 13 distribution, i cant help but feel something really weird is going on.
For eg, 691 people joined in 1 day above 430.
While no one can say this is not possible, there is one more data which is confounding.
Even assuming no one joined after April 13 till April 19th when draw took place, to get to 3665 ITAs at 415,
we have,
691(>430) + 2115(>420) = 2806.
WHich leave only 859 ITAs in the 415-420 band.
Which means in the remaining 4 points(411-414) we have 3165-859=2306 people, which is very weird.

All this is just assuming no one joined in the pool in 6 days.

All this leads me to believe the values are somehow wrong.
Likely explanation. We know April 12th draw happened quite late in the day.
April 13th data is taken in the morning.
It takes 24 hrs for the mails to be sent out for April 12th draw recipients, so many of those who were yet to recieve ITAs were still in pool
and so got added while taking April 13th pool data.

Since, i believe the April 13th data is inaccurate, i am unable to predict next draw. :'( (I predicted right last 2 draws)

You have a Point here old man... but i personally feel that if a draw happens on the 3rd of may the points will slide a bit if not lots for sure ....just keeping fingers crossed that the draw this time doesn't happen after a long 3-4 week gap else it would go slightly up or remain constant at these levels

 

[Raorulz]

Re: Ray of hope 61th draw

8)

You need to post about 20 times, i think, before you can do that.

8)
ohhh got it.

 

[can_indian]

Re: Ray of hope 61th draw

My First Post after 6 months of stalking!!!

Prediction 410 & 3750 ITA on May 3rd


Sitting at 413 dropping to 408 on May 17th

Than you should hope for little lower than that, Lets say 408 to be on a safe side.

 

[UBC 2017]

Re: Ray of hope 61th draw

Looking at the April 13 distribution, i cant help but feel something really weird is going on.
For eg, 691 people joined in 1 day above 430.
While no one can say this is not possible, there is one more data which is confounding.
Even assuming no one joined after April 13 till April 19th when draw took place, to get to 3665 ITAs at 415,
we have,
691(>430) + 2115(>420) = 2806.
WHich leave only 859 ITAs in the 415-420 band.
Which means in the remaining 4 points(411-414) we have 3165-859=2306 people, which is very weird.

All this is just assuming no one joined in the pool in 6 days.

All this leads me to believe the values are somehow wrong.
Likely explanation. We know April 12th draw happened quite late in the day.
April 13th data is taken in the morning.
It takes 24 hrs for the mails to be sent out for April 12th draw recipients, so many of those who were yet to recieve ITAs were still in pool
and so got added while taking April 13th pool data.

Since, i believe the April 13th data is inaccurate, i am unable to predict next draw. :'( (I predicted right last 2 draws)

411 - 414 = 2306
401 - 410 = 3611 , if the next draw at 3700 ITA's , then they need to take 1300+ from the group (401-410) , assuming new applications , the next draw should be between 405 - 410

 

[AlliBatista]

Re: Ray of hope 61th draw

Can anybody post April 7th data here. I know someone posted this, am unable to find it.

There you go:

Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of April 7, 2017
CRS Score Range Number of Candidates
601-1200 49
451-600 212
401-450 9,878
441-450 52
431-440 86
421-430 2,973
411-420 3,157
401-410 3,610
351-400 21,118
391-400 3,292
381-390 4,020
371-380 4,380
361-370 4,603
351-360 4,823
301-350 15,608
0-300 2,789
Total 49,654

 

[CANCANADA]

Re: Ray of hope 61th draw

411 - 414 = 2306
401 - 410 = 3611 , if the next draw at 3700 ITA's , then they need to take 1300+ from the group (401-410) , assuming new applications , the next draw should be between 405 - 410

and what about the new people joining in the pool in the next 2-3 weeks, where do you factor in that??

 

[Raorulz]

Re: Ray of hope 61th draw

I am waiting for my WES...

unfortunately It took me a lot of time to collect the transcripts. The reason was that I am from defence background so completed my education from various institutions all across the country. Finally dispatched the transcripts last week via DHL. the tracker shows it as delivered on Tuesday but WES still shows documents awaited status.


My score adds up to 420. my worrial is that how much time would be taken by WES to complete the ECA so that i could enter the EE pool. If it gets delayed by a long time, then scores might go up.


what do you people predict.

any suggestions to get the WES ECA expedited.


kindly help

 

[us1313]

Re: Ray of hope 61th draw

There you go:

Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of April 7, 2017
CRS Score Range Number of Candidates
601-1200 49
451-600 212
401-450 9,878
441-450 52
431-440 86
421-430 2,973
411-420 3,157
401-410 3,610
351-400 21,118
391-400 3,292
381-390 4,020
371-380 4,380
361-370 4,603
351-360 4,823
301-350 15,608
0-300 2,789
Total 49,654

Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of April 13, 2017
CRS Score Range Number of Candidates
601-1200 108
451-600 354
401-450 9,120
441-450 93
431-440 136
421-430 2,115
411-420 3,165
401-410 3,611
351-400 21,028
391-400 3,249
381-390 3,992
371-380 4,393
361-370 4,593
351-360 4,801
301-350 15,526
0-300 2,778
Total 48,914
We should notice also that between our last two pool statistics, despite of newcomers to the express entry, the number of people between 350-400 has reduced. What, in fact, means that people are doing language test in order to improve their score.

 

[ArjonDJ]

Re: Ray of hope 61th draw

Looking at the April 13 distribution, i cant help but feel something really weird is going on.
For eg, 691 people joined in 1 day above 430.
While no one can say this is not possible, there is one more data which is confounding.
Even assuming no one joined after April 13 till April 19th when draw took place, to get to 3665 ITAs at 415,
we have,
691(>430) + 2115(>420) = 2806.
WHich leave only 859 ITAs in the 415-420 band.
Which means in the remaining 4 points(411-414) we have 3165-859=2306 people, which is very weird.

All this is just assuming no one joined in the pool in 6 days.

All this leads me to believe the values are somehow wrong.
Likely explanation. We know April 12th draw happened quite late in the day.
April 13th data is taken in the morning.
It takes 24 hrs for the mails to be sent out for April 12th draw recipients, so many of those who were yet to recieve ITAs were still in pool
and so got added while taking April 13th pool data.

Since, i believe the April 13th data is inaccurate, i am unable to predict next draw. :'( (I predicted right last 2 draws)

Hello.
On page 6 of this thread there is an good assumption on what might have happened that caused that high number of applications over the cut-off of April 12th

I honestly doubt if so many people entered the pool in 1 day (691 for 431 & above).

My assumption is that majority of these would be pending invitations as the period of invitations spans the next day as well. Since the ITAs were still being issued, their profiles were live & hence the high number in 431 & above. See the ministerial quote for the 12th draw.

"1. (1) For the purposes of paragraph 10.2(1)(b) of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, the number of invitations that may be issued during the period beginning on April 12, 2017 and ending on April 13, 2017 is 3,923."

If we evenly distribute the candidates in the 411-420 range, roughly 1800-1900 would have been picked from the pool.

That is why even in my opinion it would be better if we consider the distribution of march 29th and april 7 to calculate the potential newcomers to the pool.

 

[AlliBatista]

Re: Ray of hope 61th draw

CRS score distribution table

https://ibb.co/dWzavk

Nice way of tracking the draws.

 

[Bloodrose]

Re: Ray of hope 61th draw

Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of April 13, 2017
CRS Score Range Number of Candidates
601-1200 108
451-600 354
401-450 9,120
441-450 93
431-440 136
421-430 2,115
411-420 3,165
401-410 3,611
351-400 21,028
391-400 3,249
381-390 3,992
371-380 4,393
361-370 4,593
351-360 4,801
301-350 15,526
0-300 2,778
Total 48,914
We should notice also that between our last two pool statistics, despite of newcomers to the express entry, the number of people between 350-400 has reduced. What, in fact, means that people are doing language test in order to improve their score.

Wow, tbh it is surprising that one of the wealthiest countries on Earth and one of the very remaining few with an open immigration policy only has 49k people waiting in line to immigrate to it. I would have expected the numbers to be way higher than that.

 

[baaboo2u]

Re: Ray of hope 61th draw

Has anyone witnessed 4th draw in a month ever? fingers crossed with big hope at 409...