Ray of hope 61st draw

[Confused_oldman]

last draw had about 100 people above 600 scores.
if only 73700 through EE, would you care to explain how did these people manage to get more than 600 points?

100 people who are applying for PR, with PNPs. I didnt understand the question honestly.

 

[monavy]

100 people who are applying for PR, with PNPs. I didnt understand the question honestly.

I wanted to point that a large portion of PNPs will also come from EE.
73700 are just the federal numbers. If we assume 50% of 52500 PNPs, total number through EE will be 100K.

for the other question, lets say cic issues 100 ITAs. 36% did not follow through. so 64% follow through.
Now average family size is 1.88. 64 x 1.88 = 120.32
so for every 100 ITAs, cic gets 120 people. so the ITA to immigration ratio is roughly 1.203

Regards

 

[Confused_oldman]

I wanted to point that a large portion of PNPs will also come from EE.
73700 are just the federal numbers. If we assume 50% of 52500 PNPs, total number through EE will be 100K.

for the other question, lets say cic issues 100 ITAs. 36% did not follow through. so 64% follow through.
Now average family size is 1.88. 64 x 1.88 = 120.32
so for every 100 ITAs, cic gets 120 people. so the ITA to immigration ratio is roughly 1.203

Regards

PNPs dont come from EE, it is a separate process. Once you get a PNP, you can enter EE for PR.
EE target will remain same regardless of PNP.
Both are separate processes and independent of each other.
In theory, if PNP candidates enter EE, EE target should increase to meet the overall 300k target, but as far as i know this doesnt happen as they are separate. One is provincial, other is federal.

 

[monavy]

PNPs dont come from EE, it is a separate process. Once you get a PNP, you can enter EE for PR.
EE target will remain same regardless of PNP.
Both are separate processes and independent of each other.
In theory, if PNP candidates enter EE, EE target should increase to meet the overall 300k target, but as far as i know this doesnt happen as they are separate. One is provincial, other is federal.

Not all but a part of it does come form EE and cic wants to increase that part.
out of 33782 ITAs issues last year, 8798 were PNPs. roughly 26%.

 

[_Harry_]

So based on the above statistics of ITA Applications, ITA Rejection / Cancellation Rate and 2017 Required ITA of 72k EE + 50k PNP..

What you guys think..CRS will decrease or remain below 420 in the coming few draws for the quota to get filled as expected?

 

[kadian]

Guys What wud be the next draw Score

A Guess with a logic ?

I guess either 407 or 423 with approx 3600 ita's

Logic: Past trend suggest 8 points change (drop//rise)

 

[Confused_oldman]

Not all but a part of it does come form EE and cic wants to increase that part.
out of 33782 ITAs issues last year, 8798 were PNPs. roughly 26%.

I think you may be right. EE includes skilled(FSW,CEC,FST),Atlantic and PNP.
Skilled and Atlantic make up 73.7k.
PNP make up 51k, which may be through EE or separate.
I looked at 2016 immigration report. They have achieved 95% of target which was 47k.
But EE report shows only 8.8k came through EE. This means 20% came through EE.
Assuming 25% come through EE in 2017, out of 51k, we will have 12.75k.
So PRs through EE will be 73.7k+12.75k=86,450.
Using your 1.2 ratio of ITAs to PRs, we will need 103,750 ITAs.

35973 ITAs issued so far in 10 draws in 4 months.
67777 ITAs remain.
Assuming 20 more draws in remaining 8 months, we have
3389 ITAs per draw.

Note: It is assumed PNPs increase from 20% to 25% this year.

 

[andieangel]

Guys What wud be the next draw Score

A Guess with a logic ?

I guess either 407 or 423 with approx 3600 ita's

Logic: Past trend suggest 8 points change (drop//rise)

I think the same. Your logic is on right track

 

[_Harry_]

I think the same. Your logic is on right track

Between 407 and 423..we have 15 points..that's 100's of applications and ITA waiting folks
Can't we predict which one's its gonna be..407 or 423?

 

[Confused_oldman]

I think you may be right. EE includes skilled(FSW,CEC,FST),Atlantic and PNP.
Skilled and Atlantic make up 73.7k.
PNP make up 51k, which may be through EE or separate.
I looked at 2016 immigration report. They have achieved 95% of target which was 47k.
But EE report shows only 8.8k came through EE. This means 20% came through EE.
Assuming 25% come through EE in 2017, out of 51k, we will have 12.75k.
So PRs through EE will be 73.7k+12.75k=86,450.
Using your 1.2 ratio of ITAs to PRs, we will need 103,750 ITAs.

35973 ITAs issued so far in 10 draws in 4 months.
67777 ITAs remain.
Assuming 20 more draws in remaining 8 months, we have
3389 ITAs per draw.

Note: It is assumed PNPs increase from 20% to 25% this year.

One thing i forgot is, the rejection rate, which is ~8%.
This is among the 64 who do apply. 8% comes to 5.12 people.
So new ITA to PR ratio becomes, (64-5.12)*1.88 which gives 110 or 1.1 ratio.

Now repeating above calculation with 1.1,
95095 ITAs
So assuming 20 remaining draws,
2956 ITAs per draw

Or

If there are no more back to back draws, only bi-monthly, we will have 16 draws, then,
3695 ITAs per draw.

But pl note 25% PNPs ought to come through EE for this.

 

[baaboo2u]

2 days to go... May 3rd... 410 with 4000 ITAs... Fingers crossed...

 

[unicorns]

WES is taking so much time, I dont want to miss out on this low cutoff trend

 

[andieangel]

Between 407 and 423..we have 15 points..that's 100's of applications and ITA waiting folks
Can't we predict which one's its gonna be..407 or 423?

If there are many people whose score went up due to ielts results on 21st April and alot of new came in with higher scores then we can expect slight increase but if it's the opposite then we will see decrease by 7-8 points which I'm rooting for!

 

[KarinneSS]

Guys, I have 410 points, waiting for the draw in 2 days.

But I have a pretty big doubt. I am finishing my College now, my classes ended last week and I already have all my grades, but my official documents will only be available June 2nd. Do you think I should wait until this day to update my profile (in case they do not call 410 or less)?

Thanks.



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410 Points | Waiting ITA | NOI received, but not applied
Better IELTS: 8.5, 9, 7.5, 6.5
Last IELTS: 9, 8.5, 6.5, 7 (waiting for EOR)

 

[can_indian]

Guys, I have 410 points, waiting for the draw in 2 days.

But I have a pretty big doubt. I am finishing my College now, my classes ended last week and I already have all my grades, but my official documents will only be available June 2nd. Do you think I should wait until this day to update my profile (in case they do not call 410 or less)?

Thanks.


That's a really bad idea

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410 Points | Waiting ITA | NOI received, but not applied
Better IELTS: 8.5, 9, 7.5, 6.5
Last IELTS: 9, 8.5, 6.5, 7 (waiting for EOR)