Ray of hope 58th draw?

[nthom]

Can you please share your spreadsheet insights?

I tried but I need to have the image (of my screenshot) hosted online it seems. I'll create a Google spreadsheet when I get home and include it here.

 

[robb83]

What makes you say so? Have you taken a look at past trends??Fluctuate +/- 20 points and anywhere in between is pretty standard. Looking at the spreadsheet I created of the trend is very helpful. It tells me one thing...Anything can happen!.

Moving forward I think we will see the points fluctuate around 430 / 440.

When there is back to back draws and ITA's remain solid at 3500+ we might see a creep into the later 420's. However when 2/3 weeks go by BAM that will be back up to late 430's/440.

Shame they don't provide snapshots of the pool after every draw.

 

[grapehair]

When the score plunged from 441 to 434, there are was a gap of just one week followed by a 23 day interval with a jump back to 441 during today's draw. This increase was certainly due to the wider gap between the draws and most likely the new ielts score that were released. Let's see what CIC have up their sleeves this time. I hope it doesn't jump that much again

 

[A Onos]

When the score plunged from 441 to 434, there are was a gap of just one week followed by a 23 day interval with a jump back to 441 during today's draw. This increase was certainly due to the wider gap between the draws and most likely the new ielts score that were released. Let's see what CIC have up their sleeves this time. I hope it doesn't jump that much again

It's so unpredictable these days. I'm hoping that a draw happenes in the next week or two so that Those of us betwee 430 and 440 stand a chance

 

[MattyTj]

When the score plunged from 441 to 434, there are was a gap of just one week followed by a 23 day interval with a jump back to 441 during today's draw. This increase was certainly due to the wider gap between the draws and most likely the new ielts score that were released. Let's see what CIC have up their sleeves this time. I hope it doesn't jump that much again

As long as the draw happens by April 5th, no new IELTS scores will be released. That would stem a bit of the inflow into the EE pool. Also, hard to know but hopefully no big PN releases either.

+1 for another back to back draw!! Or at least within 12 days!

 

[Weststarr]

If it will be on April 5th , its gonna drop but not more than 5 points, cuz ILTS and CELPIP scores will be released and PNP's, but when OINP will run out of spots for this year, the drop will be even more significant

 

[grapehair]

If you calculate, there were 163 profiles added every day at or above 441, from 1st to 24th of March. If that's the case, a two week draw will certainly make the score drop again. It'll go even lower with a one week gap. Conversely, it has the potential to rise of the draw interval is of 3 or r week , which seems unlikely.

 

[ajaysharma]

The next draw, if on April 5 and with 3,500+ ITAs, the score will definitely drop to 433-435. Unfortunately, after that, the drop will be extremely marginal.

Because there will be 600-900 people on each point between 425 and 432. These are people like me who have been in the pool for a year. Some longer. And some who will enter before April 19.

So as long as ITAs continue in the 3500+ range every two weeks, the score will drop to 425 by May-end. Hope the number of ITAs remain 7500+ every month for the next few months.

 

[MattyTj]

So the record shortest time from draw to draw is 6 days. Let's break that record with a draw on the 29th of March!

 

[Weststarr]

So the record shortest time from draw to draw is 6 days. Let's break that record with a draw on the 29th of March!

Draw Tomorrow ! ;p

 

[Northstar88]

No, long way to go, CRS 408

Yes it's a long way, but with hope and faith we can achieve our goal.... Canada

 

[tj4canada]

Because there will be 600-900 people on each point between 425 and 432.

I don't doubt this, but I'm curious what your source is. Based on the 2015 report, I would have guessed more like 200-300. Can you give more information?

 

[prvisit]

I don't doubt this, but I'm curious what your source is. Based on the 2015 report, I would have guessed more like 200-300. Can you give more information?

There is no way we can guess how many applicants at what scores. His score is 431. That is why he mentioned till 432 :'(

 

[Alexios07]

Moving forward I think we will see the points fluctuate around 430 / 440.

When there is back to back draws and ITA's remain solid at 3500+ we might see a creep into the later 420's. However when 2/3 weeks go by BAM that will be back up to late 430's/440.

Shame they don't provide snapshots of the pool after every draw.

This is the reason why you cannot predict anything even if you have a snapshot of the pool. The important factors that decide the cutoff score are the ITA per draw and the frequent of draws, and both of them are not obtainable. I used to play a lot with IRCC's data but after a while, I decided it's just a waste of time.

 

[Alexios07]

The next draw, if on April 5 and with 3,500+ ITAs, the score will definitely drop to 433-435. Unfortunately, after that, the drop will be extremely marginal.

Because there will be 600-900 people on each point between 425 and 432. These are people like me who have been in the pool for a year. Some longer. And some who will enter before April 19.

So as long as ITAs continue in the 3500+ range every two weeks, the score will drop to 425 by May-end. Hope the number of ITAs remain 7500+ every month for the next few months.

For 2015, there were 30,284 ITAs issued (23 draws), and 33,782 ITAs for 2016 (27 draws) => average 32,033 ITAs per year.

With only 6 draws with the first 3 months of 2017, IRCC already issued 24,652 ITAs for Express Entry.

Now, what we don't exactly know is the current backlog, this factor will decide how many total ITAs will be issued for this year.

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/canada-immigration-plan-2017-released-t459345.0.html