Ray of hope 58th draw?

[kutt4n]

Yes I did. I allowed them to check my profile. And check the "all provinces or territories" option.


NOC is 6314

My points was originally 435 but I included my common law partner on my application thus the change of points down to 431. I just recently included him on February 17. A few days after, the required points for the draw was 434. I was completely heartbroken.

I know it's wishful thinking, but I am praying for me to be drawn this April 5th with 431 points. How unlikely is that?

We could have used different methods, bayesian statistics, regression - etc if only we had full insight into the various factors that affects score change.
The last draw was in many ways baffling - in the sense, even after reading all the posts, i couldn't arrive at a reason for the sudden influx with absolute certainty. We could guess and attribute it to IELTS results, PNP invitations, or even a sudden interest in canada from a large group of people. But then again, the only thing we know for sure is that there was an additional one week gap. What we also know is that only a certain percentage of ITAs gets translated into PRs. CIC would also be knowing it and factoring it into the process of arriving at draw numbers (hence expecting ~ 3k per draw for the next few months)

Between, Feb 22 and March 1, 3884 people got selected who had scores between 434 and 441 - these were people who were in the pool for a long time. So even if there is a huge unprecedented surge in the number of applications since March 1, i remain hopeful that the scores would come down. I believe it'll be 434 for the next one and it should further come down for the subsequent one or two draws.

By the way, personally i think it's good that you added the partner now. In my opinion, it would be better than delay incurred in sponsoring him later. Is there any way you could improve the scores ( your/partner's IELTS etc). Also, looks like your NOC might have openings in all provinces - would you also want to keep an eye on PNPs from places where you don't necessarily need a job offer.

wishing you the best!

 

[kutt4n]

I'm pretty old. I listed my entire work history on my form. Does that mean I need to get a letter from every employer if I get an ITA? Or just the number of years that I'm claiming as experience that got points?

Thanks

I've also have around 15 years of work experience. I didn't add all of that to by EE profile, since that would mean that I'd have to provide supporting documents for all those profiles. While it is not impossible to do that, I thought it is un-necessary trouble. So for work experience, i've added only the last 6 years, the rest I'd add later in my personal history.

Maybe you could see the impact your work experience has on the score and add only the necessary ones in your EE profile.

 

[comfortablynumb]

I am at 439 after declining a Invite on March 1st. Really Nervours

Why did you do that? We now have 90 days to submit the application which I believe is more than enough. Don't mean to intrude, just curious.

 

[slyap]

Since no new IELTS results will be out by April 5th, I would say you have a 50/50 chance. Hopefully CIC will not space the draws out like the last one. Let's get back on the every 2 week train with an occasional 1 week sprinkled in. Assuming this pattern, I think you would get an ITA by May.

I'm pulling for you! Best of luck!

Thanks! I really hope I'll be drawn this year! Fingers Crossed!

 

[slyap]

We could have used different methods, bayesian statistics, regression - etc if only we had full insight into the various factors that affects score change.
The last draw was in many ways baffling - in the sense, even after reading all the posts, i couldn't arrive at a reason for the sudden influx with absolute certainty. We could guess and attribute it to IELTS results, PNP invitations, or even a sudden interest in canada from a large group of people. But then again, the only thing we know for sure is that there was an additional one week gap. What we also know is that only a certain percentage of ITAs gets translated into PRs. CIC would also be knowing it and factoring it into the process of arriving at draw numbers (hence expecting ~ 3k per draw for the next few months)

Between, Feb 22 and March 1, 3884 people got selected who had scores between 434 and 441 - these were people who were in the pool for a long time. So even if there is a huge unprecedented surge in the number of applications since March 1, i remain hopeful that the scores would come down. I believe it'll be 434 for the next one and it should further come down for the subsequent one or two draws.

By the way, personally i think it's good that you added the partner now. In my opinion, it would be better than delay incurred in sponsoring him later. Is there any way you could improve the scores ( your/partner's IELTS etc). Also, looks like your NOC might have openings in all provinces - would you also want to keep an eye on PNPs from places where you don't necessarily need a job offer.

wishing you the best!

I'm planning to retake IELTS if by April I still don't get an invite. Scores are R - 8.5 L - 8.5 W - 7 S - 7. I was not feeling well when I took the IELTs thus the low scores.

I was hoping for an OINP. But did not get an invite yet I really hope I'll be drawn this month. I have been waiting for a year now. Got all my documents ready, I think. Police clearances as well. Just did not have my Medical yet.

I hope everything goes well for above 430 this month!

 

[ajaysharma]

As long as they keep the draws every 14 days or less, I think that chances are good for 430+ (Maybe even upper 420s). I think once graduation happens in May, ECAs will start to roll in around mid to late June. This combined with the new sibling bonus means things should be interesting in June-July and on. I'm not saying that points will rise for sure though, we just gotta keep watching.

IELTS results will present the biggest influx of candidates during the next 2 months. The main influx of candidates will coincide with results releases. The next dates are April 7th (from Mar 25 test), April 21st (from Apr 8 test), May 12th (from Apr 29 test), and May 26th (from May 13 test).

As long as IRCC does an April 5th draw, I personally think this represents the best chance of a score drop to the low 430s. Let's keep our fingers crossed!

I absolutely agree with this analysis. I would only add one more thing to his first sentence. The no.of ITAs has to be 3600+ every 14 days.

 

[thejkhan]

IELTS results will present the biggest influx of candidates during the next 2 months. The main influx of candidates will coincide with results releases. The next dates are April 7th (from Mar 25 test), April 21st (from Apr 8 test), May 12th (from Apr 29 test), and May 26th (from May 13 test).

Lol. IELTS results are released around (more or less) every 2 weeks. Draws also happen mostly every 2 weeks. So I don't see how coming IELTS result release dates will change anything.

 

[Maverick28]

Lol. IELTS results are released around (more or less) every 2 weeks. Draws also happen mostly every 2 weeks. So I don't see how coming IELTS result release dates will change anything.

IELTS results helps in increasing your score drastically. If you are CLB 7-8 and get CLB 9-10, you get approx 30-40 points extra. If results are declared every 2 weeks and draw happens every 2 weeks, the balance is kind of maintained between the applicants and ITA. But if the results are declared every 2 weeks and the draw is not regular, the pool might have more people with higher scores and this increases the cut-off for CRS in the next draw. I think this was one of the reason for higher CRS cut-off in the last draw.

 

[alizaidi]

We could have used different methods, bayesian statistics, regression - etc if only we had full insight into the various factors that affects score change.
The last draw was in many ways baffling - in the sense, even after reading all the posts, i couldn't arrive at a reason for the sudden influx with absolute certainty. We could guess and attribute it to IELTS results, PNP invitations, or even a sudden interest in canada from a large group of people. But then again, the only thing we know for sure is that there was an additional one week gap. What we also know is that only a certain percentage of ITAs gets translated into PRs. CIC would also be knowing it and factoring it into the process of arriving at draw numbers (hence expecting ~ 3k per draw for the next few months)

Between, Feb 22 and March 1, 3884 people got selected who had scores between 434 and 441 - these were people who were in the pool for a long time. So even if there is a huge unprecedented surge in the number of applications since March 1, i remain hopeful that the scores would come down. I believe it'll be 434 for the next one and it should further come down for the subsequent one or two draws.

By the way, personally i think it's good that you added the partner now. In my opinion, it would be better than delay incurred in sponsoring him later. Is there any way you could improve the scores ( your/partner's IELTS etc). Also, looks like your NOC might have openings in all provinces - would you also want to keep an eye on PNPs from places where you don't necessarily need a job offer.

wishing you the best!

Oh yes, I have been reading the statistics and predictions of people here after January and no offence to anyone but nobody has predicted the score going up this much and with the 3500+ invitations with any rational support. I do not buy any of the reasons of this score rise, be it IELTS, graduation or PNP because none of this makes sense at all and they are all irrational assumptions. As far as we guys predict for fun or just for hope its fine but there is no point in analysing rationally without the data/annual report 2016. After the last draw, I believe there are so many factors which are involved in the fluctuation of scores which we do not know and only CIC does.

I am at 420 and gave up all the hopes now after the last draw, not because scores do not have a chance to come down to 420 this year but the waiting is killing me as there are so many other things in life to focus on i.e. career. I am appearing on IELTS again on 29 April and will try to bump my score to 478. *Fingers Crossed*

 

[robinsonjoel]

I'm planning to retake IELTS if by April I still don't get an invite. Scores are R - 8.5 L - 8.5 W - 7 S - 7. I was not feeling well when I took the IELTs thus the low scores.

I was hoping for an OINP. But did not get an invite yet I really hope I'll be drawn this month. I have been waiting for a year now. Got all my documents ready, I think. Police clearances as well. Just did not have my Medical yet.

I hope everything goes well for above 430 this month!

Hello! What is your CRS score?

And could we have a tab on the no. of people in each CRS scores category currently? I know we had people help in piecing it together, but a recent one could help us know if ITA to be issued will be range bound 3500, +/-. thanks!

 

[prakash419]

Friends I really need your urgent help and advice -

I did my BTECH in 2005 and worked for 7 years as a software engineer (NOC 2173, Category 0) and then in 2012 I quit my job and joined a full time MBA, graduating in 2014 and then from last 2 years 9 months working as a procurement manager (NOC 0113, category B), also during MBA I worked for 3 months as an intern (paid, full time in a fortune 50 company). Now I am confused about which NOC to use as primary , bottom line is I really need the full points for CRS (which requires 3 years continuous work experience in same NOC) so was intending to use NOC 2173 as primary, but in the CRS application it says use your most recent experience (within last 5 years) as primary, but if I do that I will not get full point since my most recent NOC (0113) is only 2 years 9 months continuous work experience. Please advise urgently what should I do, I am confused. Thanks.

 

[Maverick28]

Friends I really need your urgent help and advice -

I did my BTECH in 2005 and worked for 7 years as a software engineer (NOC 2173, Category 0) and then in 2012 I quit my job and joined a full time MBA, graduating in 2014 and then from last 2 years 9 months working as a procurement manager (NOC 0113, category B), also during MBA I worked for 3 months as an intern (paid, full time in a fortune 50 company). Now I am confused about which NOC to use as primary , bottom line is I really need the full points for CRS (which requires 3 years continuous work experience in same NOC) so was intending to use NOC 2173 as primary, but in the CRS application it says use your most recent experience (within last 5 years) as primary, but if I do that I will not get full point since my most recent NOC (0113) is only 2 years 9 months continuous work experience. Please advise urgently what should I do, I am confused. Thanks.

You need to stop posting this question everywhere. Please be patient and someone will answer your query. Posting it in all the threads will not help.

 

[prakash419]

You need to stop posting this question everywhere. Please be patient and someone will answer your query. Posting it in all the threads will not help.

Ok thanks. Can you provide some guidance plz? will greatly appreciate. thanks.

 

[Maverick28]

Ok thanks. Can you provide some guidance plz? will greatly appreciate. thanks.

What was the NOC for your MBA internship?

 

[prakash419]

What was the NOC for your MBA internship?

0113, same as my current (post MBA) job.