Ray of hope 57th draw?

[KlausKarp]

Hello

For those of you who still can't sleep and are up for a little statisticising, go ahead and copy the list below (tab-separated) into excel (all data from the CIC express-entry past-rounds page). You may then create a chart which beautifully demonstrates the overall upwards-trend of people invited (esp. since #42, with a significant exception in #48), and the slight overall downwards-trend of required CRS.

I don't know how to insert pictures here (or even hyperlink them), but maybe someone would care to put the excel graph generated from these numbers online somewhere for the world to see.

If the current draw #57 follows recent trends (since #42), then we can anticipate 4,105 invitees and a lowest score of 428 (average 6 points less and 221 people more per draw, ignoring statistical bolters). However, disasters like #48 are possible at any time I guess, which would mean a score of 786 and only 559 people invited. The reality will lie somewhere in between, eh

Round Date Number of Invitations Lowest CRS Score
1 January 31, 2015 779 886
2 February 7, 2015 779 818
3 February 20, 2015 849 808
4 February 27, 2015 1,187 735
5 March 20, 2015 1,620 481
6 March 27, 2015 1,637 453
7 April 10, 2015 925 469
8 April 17, 2015 715 453
9 May 22, 2015 1,361 755
10 June 12, 2015 1,501 482
11 June 26, 2015 1,575 469
12 July 10, 2015 1,516 463
13 July 17, 2015 1,581 451
14 August 7, 2015 1,402 471
15 August 21, 2015 1,523 456
16 September 8, 2015 1,517 459
17 September 18, 2015 1,545 450
18 October 2, 2015 1,530 450
19 October 23, 2015 1,502 489
20 November 13, 2015 1,506 484
21 November 27, 2015 1,559 472
22 December 4, 2015 1,451 461
23 December 18, 2015 1,503 460
24 January 6, 2016 1,463 461
25 January 13, 2016 1,518 453
26 January 27, 2016 1,468 457
27 February 10, 2016 1,505 459
28 February 24, 2016 1,484 453
29 March 9, 2016 1,013 473
30 March 23, 2016 1,014 470
31 April 6, 2016 954 470
32 April 20, 2016 1,018 468
33 May 6, 2016 799 534
34 May 18, 2016 763 484
35 June 1, 2016 762 483
36 June 15, 2016 752 488
37 June 29, 2016 773 482
38 July 13, 2016 747 482
39 July 27, 2016 755 488
40 August 10, 2016 754 490
41 August 24, 2016 750 538
42 September 7, 2016 1,000 491
43 September 21, 2016 1,288 483
44 October 12, 2016 1,518 484
45 October 19, 2016 1,804 475
46 November 2, 2016 2,080 472
47 November 16, 2016 2,427 470
48 November 30, 2016 559 786
49 December 16, 2016 1,936 497
50 December 22, 2016 2,878 475
51 January 4, 2017 2,902 468
52 January 11, 2017 3,334 459
53 January 25, 2017 3,508 453
54 February 8, 2017 3,644 447
55 February 22, 2017 3,611 441
56 March 1, 2017 3,884 434

 

[limestone]

More predictions plz..Let the Ray of hope be alive

Well, here is my estimates for upcoming rounds. As long as no PNP points are discharged.

round 55 high 430s
round 56 low 430s
round 57 low 420s
round 58 mid 410s
round 59 mid 400s
round 60 I don't care baby 8) my CRS 409

Well, above is what I posted some weeks ago. My estimates for -then- upcoming rounds.

- As long as no PNP points are discharged. And invites contnue ~3500
- Based on candidate CRS distribution is more less same in July 2016 report (https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.cerc.ca/resource/resmgr/government_relations/Express_entry_national_stake.pdf)
- And assuming number of candidates in pool was ~20,000 before draw 55.

round 55 high 430s - It was 441
round 56 low 430s - It was 434
round 57 low 420s - I predict 423 to 425
round 58 mid 410s -
round 59 mid 400s - this is what I hope for

 

[anirr]

Well, above is what I posted some weeks ago. My estimates for -then- upcoming rounds.

- As long as no PNP points are discharged. And invites contnue ~3500
- Based on candidate CRS distribution is more less same in July 2016 report (https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.cerc.ca/resource/resmgr/government_relations/Express_entry_national_stake.pdf)
- And assuming number of candidates in pool was ~20,000 before draw 55.

round 55 high 430s - It was 441
round 56 low 430s - It was 434
round 57 low 420s - I predict 423 to 425
round 58 mid 410s -
round 59 mid 400s - this is what I hope for

wow!!!! thats quite interesting!!! Lets see...

 

[xpressentry]

Well, above is what I posted some weeks ago. My estimates for -then- upcoming rounds.

- As long as no PNP points are discharged. And invites contnue ~3500
- Based on candidate CRS distribution is more less same in July 2016 report (https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.cerc.ca/resource/resmgr/government_relations/Express_entry_national_stake.pdf)
- And assuming number of candidates in pool was ~20,000 before draw 55.

round 55 high 430s - It was 441
round 56 low 430s - It was 434
round 57 low 420s - I predict 423 to 425
round 58 mid 410s -
round 59 mid 400s - this is what I hope for

Do you think CIC will have some cut off where they will say we won't go lower than this else nobody will opt for PNP and the provinces won't make any money through application fees.

 

[Shaz1]

Precisely how many hrs left for draw?

 

[anirr]

Precisely how many hrs left for draw?

its 10:37 am UTC now

 

[Indi- canada]

i think it will be 430 with 3500 ITA

 

[limestone]

Do you think CIC will have some cut off where they will say we won't go lower than this else nobody will opt for PNP and the provinces won't make any money through application fees.

I see the conflict you are pointing, but then "in theory" they can reduce PNP CRS requirements accordingly.

I think the fall is not happening by chance, it is falling by CIC design. When they stopped giving 600 pts for jobs (and convert to 50 and 200), they cut low CRS candidates ability to leapfrog with job arrangement pts. I think this applies mostly to inland applications, since outland job arrangement practically low-low chances.

Please check draw #48 cutoff 786!!! Meaning someone with 186 CRS+600 pts achieved ITA. 186!? (even if you add current 200pts still 386pts)

To increase the influx of candidates with higher HC pts, I believe CIC designed point values, in a way to reach 400s in cutoffs. May be even slightly lower. In this points situation, like I said above, PNP can still function, if they reduce PNP CRS requirements accordingly. They will help ppl with CRS 300 to 400.

I personally think, the economic benefit gained from a candidate, with 300+ has a lot of HC value compared to 186. Hence, CIC is executing this.

BR

 

[Manylivesmanymasters]

With CIC surprising us last week, my only concern is if we will have the draw today.

Hope there is one , I predict 429 with 3500+ ITAs

 

[Jemin]

I see the conflict you are pointing, but then "in theory" they can reduce PNP CRS requirements accordingly.

I think the fall is not happening by chance, it is falling by CIC design. When they stopped giving 600 pts for jobs (and convert to 50 and 200), they cut low CRS candidates ability to leapfrog with job arrangement pts. I think this applies mostly to inland applications, since outland job arrangement practically low-low chances.

Please check draw #48 cutoff 786!!! Meaning someone with 186 CRS+600 pts achieved ITA. 186!? (even if you add current 200pts still 386pts)

To increase the influx of candidates with higher HC pts, I believe CIC designed point values in a way to reach 400s in cutoffs. May be even slightly lower. In this points situation, like I said above, PNP can still function, if they reduce PNP CRS requirements accordingly. They will help ppl with CRS 300 to 400.

I personally think, the economic benefit gained from a candidate, with 300+ has a lot of HC value compared to 186. Hence, CIC is executing this.

BR

Wow!!! I think you have a very strong and pertinent point. Add to that no backlog of applications filed before express entry system and more intakes in 2017.

 

[nabilkhan]

I see the conflict you are pointing, but then "in theory" they can reduce PNP CRS requirements accordingly.

I think the fall is not happening by chance, it is falling by CIC design. When they stopped giving 600 pts for jobs (and convert to 50 and 200), they cut low CRS candidates ability to leapfrog with job arrangement pts. I think this applies mostly to inland applications, since outland job arrangement practically low-low chances.

Please check draw #48 cutoff 786!!! Meaning someone with 186 CRS+600 pts achieved ITA. 186!? (even if you add current 200pts still 386pts)

To increase the influx of candidates with higher HC pts, I believe CIC designed point values in a way to reach 400s in cutoffs. May be even slightly lower. In this points situation, like I said above, PNP can still function, if they reduce PNP CRS requirements accordingly. They will help ppl with CRS 300 to 400.

I personally think, the economic benefit gained from a candidate, with 300+ has a lot of HC value compared to 186. Hence, CIC is executing this.

BR

what about students??? they are now getting extra points...they are young, good IELTS Score, educated and some of them have Canadian experience.. each one of them can easily get 400+ and they are in 1000s...

 

[ExpatingSinceLong]

can anyone advise when is draw 57 happening? is it today? I am waiting at 427. any chances for ITA?

 

[paras123]

can anyone advise when is draw 57 happening? is it today? I am waiting at 427. any chances for ITA?

It is expected today, but nobody can tell you for sure. If the trend continues, you might get an ITA in this draw.

 

[nabilkhan]

can anyone advise when is draw 57 happening? is it today? I am waiting at 427. any chances for ITA?

there is also hope....and hope for super-duper ;D, mega, giant draw.. around like 5000+

 

[ExpatingSinceLong]

Thank for replying dear, i wish you the same, I see you are sitting at much better CRS than me. good luck and lets hope

It is expected today, but nobody can tell you for sure. If the trend continues, you might get an ITA in this draw.