RAY of HOPE 55th Draw (Predictions)

[deril]

Deril Whats your crs?

My CSR is 481

 

[sutyfornow]

Any idea when pnps will have an impact on the draws? Like next month or after 2 months? What about sakast. And british colombia?

 

[sutyfornow]

Me:

Considering the quota and clearing of the backlog there should be at least 60.000 ITAs issued through ExpressEntry, and that's minimum (before it was 30.000 ITAs and they said 50% of the quota came from Express Entry so now it should be 60.000 + the quota is higher than in 2016. so even more)

Also we know they started filling quota for 2017. around October (source: CIC guy) so looking at the numbers around 20.000 ITAs for 2017. is already issued (lets say that is 30.000 PR's (because someone said it was 1.5 PR per 1 ITA if I am not mistaken)..

that leaves us with about 30.000 ITAs through EE (45.000 PR's) since they plan 73,700 economic migrants..

+ there is another 20.000 PNP nominations planned (51.000 PNP PR's, some are paper-based??)..

that makes for another 50.000 ITA's until October 2017. when they will start filling quota for 2018.

Thats my calculation- it makes about 6.500 ITAs per month including PNPs (which is already happening). With this rate we'll hit low 400 CRS.

Pawshi:

I totally agree with your views. However, I have difference of opinion on PNP figures. I consider this as to be 15% in each draw.

From October 2016 to till date almost 26610+ ITAs have been issued. Considering 15% of them as PNP, then it becomes 22600+ as economic immigrants till date.

Total annual target for economic immigrants is 72000+. If we consider 1:1.5 as ITA vs family ratio, then we need 54000 ITAs from October 2016 to September 2017 period. Already 22600 is gone, so we are left with 31400 ITAs for next 7 months. This breaks down to 4500 per month. Add 1000 for the PNP per month. Add conservative rejection ratio - 20% (which used to be 35% earlier). This leads to 1000 per month.

So overall, 4500+1000+1000=6500 per month means 3200 plus draw every two weeks.

I dont see a reason of the fall in draw size, atleast for the next three months. March, April and May 2017. Considering total 7 draws (including one more draw of Feb), I do believe that scores will drop to 420+/- 10 by May end.


PS. Edited after posting to better match the numbers.

Any idea when the pnps will have an impact on the draws? I was wondering in the past draws were there any pnps included?

 

[eamrshh]

Me:

Considering the quota and clearing of the backlog there should be at least 60.000 ITAs issued through ExpressEntry, and that's minimum (before it was 30.000 ITAs and they said 50% of the quota came from Express Entry so now it should be 60.000 + the quota is higher than in 2016. so even more)

Also we know they started filling quota for 2017. around October (source: CIC guy) so looking at the numbers around 20.000 ITAs for 2017. is already issued (lets say that is 30.000 PR's (because someone said it was 1.5 PR per 1 ITA if I am not mistaken)..

that leaves us with about 30.000 ITAs through EE (45.000 PR's) since they plan 73,700 economic migrants..

+ there is another 20.000 PNP nominations planned (51.000 PNP PR's, some are paper-based??)..

that makes for another 50.000 ITA's until October 2017. when they will start filling quota for 2018.

Thats my calculation- it makes about 6.500 ITAs per month including PNPs (which is already happening). With this rate we'll hit low 400 CRS.

Pawshi:

I totally agree with your views. However, I have difference of opinion on PNP figures. I consider this as to be 15% in each draw.

From October 2016 to till date almost 26610+ ITAs have been issued. Considering 15% of them as PNP, then it becomes 22600+ as economic immigrants till date.

Total annual target for economic immigrants is 72000+. If we consider 1:1.5 as ITA vs family ratio, then we need 54000 ITAs from October 2016 to September 2017 period. Already 22600 is gone, so we are left with 31400 ITAs for next 7 months. This breaks down to 4500 per month. Add 1000 for the PNP per month. Add conservative rejection ratio - 20% (which used to be 35% earlier). This leads to 1000 per month.

So overall, 4500+1000+1000=6500 per month means 3200 plus draw every two weeks.

I dont see a reason of the fall in draw size, atleast for the next three months. March, April and May 2017. Considering total 7 draws (including one more draw of Feb), I do believe that scores will drop to 420+/- 10 by May end.


PS. Edited after posting to better match the numbers.

But I think we are not considering students who graduates every year from Canada. Also many new applicants add up every month.
Considering that i suspect if it will go down to 420 this Year.Moreover the no of people increases more at each point as we go down.

 

[Rajveer]

Cant really say what will happen in the next few months but there are quite a bit of people stuck in the 430 range. They probably might go down till 425 and stay stable there..
1 work year experience 2 year diploma and a good ielts score can get you in the 430's easily..

But the next 2 -3 months will tell us what will start to happen. Because the PNP draws the OINP all of this should show some effect by then.

They need the immigrants you won't have a working population in Canada if you really make the immigration hard

Alot of the PNP applicants involve students who have studied here found a job pay taxes are educated or even skilled.. Jacking the score back up wouldnt really benefit anyone

 

[SGtoCAD]

hello! i am from sg too! but sitting at 430....

Don't worry buddy! you will get your ITA soon, believe it! I waited long for mine too but it doesn't end here.

 

[coolex2017]

Hello Guys please help ,

here is what happened , 3 months back we have created our express entry profile , and then last week we pulled back and create a new profile to apply to Ontario ; then we created a new job bank , but then
we couldn't still see our new express entry profile is active (although our job bank profile is active) . When I check it says the Ircc system is currently down .
what should I do ? please help , we are sitting on 440 and we are so afraid we are gonna loose the chance for nothing because our preofile couldn't get active . By the way when is the next draw?

thanks guys . Good luck

 

[eamrshh]

Hello Guys please help ,

here is what happened , 3 months back we have created our express entry profile , and then last week we pulled back and create a new profile to apply to Ontario ; then we created a new job bank , but then
we couldn't still see our new express entry profile is active (although our job bank profile is active) . When I check it says the Ircc system is currently down .
what should I do ? please help , we are sitting on 440 and we are so afraid we are gonna loose the chance for nothing because our preofile couldn't get active . By the way when is the next draw?

thanks guys . Good luck

why u felt to delete your profile .you cud have probably uodated ur profile.thats what m planning to do..I have ita but I am planning to decline it and waiting for next draw which I will be applying with my family...som planning to update my profile without deleting it .hence I wud not need to make my job profile again since it will be already active and my profile too.

 

[bints]

My CSR is 481

Hi Deril,

You must have received ITA directly for 481, why were you waiting for NOI from OINP ? Any specific reason?

 

[coolex2017]

why u felt to delete your profile .you cud have probably uodated ur profile.thats what m planning to do..I have ita but I am planning to decline it and waiting for next draw which I will be applying with my family...som planning to update my profile without deleting it .hence I wud not need to make my job profile again since it will be already active and my profile too.

Well actually i ve asked one immigration lawyer and they saod you have to withdraw your previous express entry profile and re do it again with an option to ontorio pnp. And we did like that but unfortunately somehow my new express entry profile doesnt get active altough my job bank profile is active. We are so worried about the situation since the other draw could be this wendsday. Hopefully we coupd resolve the matter during that time. Please anyone has any suggestion or idea whats happening. ?

 

[thestunner316]

Well actually i ve asked one immigration lawyer and they saod you have to withdraw your previous express entry profile and re do it again with an option to ontorio pnp. And we did like that but unfortunately somehow my new express entry profile doesnt get active altough my job bank profile is active. We are so worried about the situation since the other draw could be this wendsday. Hopefully we coupd resolve the matter during that time. Please anyone has any suggestion or idea whats happening. ?

when did you re-create your profile ?

usually takes 24-48 hrs for profile to be active...

 

[coolex2017]

when did you re-create your profile ?

usually takes 24-48 hrs for profile to be active...

We have created 24 th of feb. Right now my job bank still active but my express entry profile is not.
What do u think ? Where is the problem. I search over the net and sometimes they say there is a glicth but i dont onow how to fix.
Thanks for reply

 

[thestunner316]

We have created 24 th of feb. Right now my job bank still active but my express entry profile is not.
What do u think ? Where is the problem. I search over the net and sometimes they say there is a glicth but i dont onow how to fix.
Thanks for reply

give it time till tuesday afternoon... hopefully it should be fixed by then.

did you check your profile completely to see if you missed any piece of information ?

 

[coolex2017]

give it time till tuesday afternoon... hopefully it should be fixed by then.

did you check your profile completely to see if you missed any piece of information ?

Oh yes we check several times everything seems ok but it still didnt get activated. Do you guys know how many days before the draw our account should be activated in order to get selected on that draw.
Thanks for the support

 

[badz2]

to those who recreated their ee profile,how did you answer the question if you have applied to ircc before?did you answer it as yes or no?