RAY of HOPE 55th Draw (Predictions)

[pacificislander]

What pnps have opened?

AIPP, although it's a pilot project under PNPs of NB, NL, NS and PEI. They will start this March/April and OINP will be opening this week.

 

[sutyfornow]

Thanks, that makes me NOT crazy and thats really important to me

You should get it April/May yes... CRS shouldnt shoot up.. I think it will more likely go slower donwnwards after May, not upwards..

Why do you think it will go lower? Im afraid pnps would raise the scores of draws

 

[astralsource]

Why do you think it will go lower? Im afraid pnps would raise the scores of draws

Because I did some anaylsis based on FSW quotas, PNP's, number of draws.. I think shooting up scores are a matter of past. Aim of CIC is to allow good Human capital to get in, and they see everything above 400+ as GOOD. For now.

 

[sutyfornow]

AIPP, although it's a pilot project under PNPs of NB, NL, NS and PEI. They will start this March/April and OINP will be opening this week.

But i think their impact on the draws might be seen probably in may or afterwards , right?

 

[sutyfornow]

Because I did some anaylsis based on FSW quotas, PNP's, number of draws.. I think shooting up scores are a matter of past. Aim of CIC is to allow good Human capital to get in, and they see everything above 400+ as GOOD. For now.

I really wish you are right

 

[resu]

Because I did some anaylsis based on FSW quotas, PNP's, number of draws.. I think shooting up scores are a matter of past. Aim of CIC is to allow good Human capital to get in, and they see everything above 400+ as GOOD. For now.

Can you throw some light on the analysis...
Even some lines would give many here much more than a single ray of hope.

 

[pacificislander]

Why do you think it will go lower? Im afraid pnps would raise the scores of draws

I think it will take time for the PNP applicants to get their nominations and their number is relatively fewer than the current number of ITAs issued lately. So i hope they will not have significant effect in the coming draws.

 

[softwaretesting]

Why do you think it will go lower? Im afraid pnps would raise the scores of draws

How much is overall PNP Quota? For Ontario it is 6k, which they will be issuing with pauses, so approx. 1500 per quarter (i.e. avg of 250 every 2 weeks). My prediction is that with 3500 nominations every 2 weeks, these numbers will not increase cutoffs & even if it increases, it will be temporary increase for a draw.

 

[astralsource]

Me:

Considering the quota and clearing of the backlog there should be at least 60.000 ITAs issued through ExpressEntry, and that's minimum (before it was 30.000 ITAs and they said 50% of the quota came from Express Entry so now it should be 60.000 + the quota is higher than in 2016. so even more)

Also we know they started filling quota for 2017. around October (source: CIC guy) so looking at the numbers around 20.000 ITAs for 2017. is already issued (lets say that is 30.000 PR's (because someone said it was 1.5 PR per 1 ITA if I am not mistaken)..

that leaves us with about 30.000 ITAs through EE (45.000 PR's) since they plan 73,700 economic migrants..

+ there is another 20.000 PNP nominations planned (51.000 PNP PR's, some are paper-based??)..

that makes for another 50.000 ITA's until October 2017. when they will start filling quota for 2018.

Thats my calculation- it makes about 6.500 ITAs per month including PNPs (which is already happening). With this rate we'll hit low 400 CRS.

Pawshi:

I totally agree with your views. However, I have difference of opinion on PNP figures. I consider this as to be 15% in each draw.

From October 2016 to till date almost 26610+ ITAs have been issued. Considering 15% of them as PNP, then it becomes 22600+ as economic immigrants till date.

Total annual target for economic immigrants is 72000+. If we consider 1:1.5 as ITA vs family ratio, then we need 54000 ITAs from October 2016 to September 2017 period. Already 22600 is gone, so we are left with 31400 ITAs for next 7 months. This breaks down to 4500 per month. Add 1000 for the PNP per month. Add conservative rejection ratio - 20% (which used to be 35% earlier). This leads to 1000 per month.

So overall, 4500+1000+1000=6500 per month means 3200 plus draw every two weeks.

I dont see a reason of the fall in draw size, atleast for the next three months. March, April and May 2017. Considering total 7 draws (including one more draw of Feb), I do believe that scores will drop to 420+/- 10 by May end.


PS. Edited after posting to better match the numbers.

 

[resu]

What my empty brain says is people are more inclined to Ontario/BC and Alberta. ONIP has opened this week. BC is tough I guess and dont know about Alberta. So we shouldn't be worried about PNPs. Anyone with more than 400 shouldn't be.

My Plan -

1. Wait for ITA.
2. If comes before ONIP. ONIP goes to trash bin.
3. If ONIP comes, wait for 30 days for ITA. If not forget ITA and accept ONIP.
4. If both don't come. Never mind...
5. Wait again for ITA.

 

[resu]

Me:

Considering the quota and clearing of the backlog there should be at least 60.000 ITAs issued through ExpressEntry, and that's minimum (before it was 30.000 ITAs and they said 50% of the quota came from Express Entry so now it should be 60.000 + the quota is higher than in 2016. so even more)

Also we know they started filling quota for 2017. around October (source: CIC guy) so looking at the numbers around 20.000 ITAs for 2017. is already issued (lets say that is 30.000 PR's (because someone said it was 1.5 PR per 1 ITA if I am not mistaken)..

that leaves us with about 30.000 ITAs through EE (45.000 PR's) since they plan 73,700 economic migrants..

+ there is another 30.000 PNP nominations planned (51.000 PNP PR's)..

that makes for another 60.000 ITA's until October 2017. when they will start filling quota for 2018.

Thats my calculation- it makes about 7.000 ITAs per month including PNPs (which is already happening). With this rate we'll hit 400 CRS.

Pawshi:

I totally agree with your views. However, I have difference of opinion on PNP figures. I consider this as to be 15% in each draw.

From October 2016 to till date almost 26610+ ITAs have been issued. Considering 15% of them as PNP, then it becomes 22600+ as economic immigrants till date.

Total annual target for economic immigrants is 72000+. If we consider 1:1.5 as ITA vs family ratio, then we need 54000 ITAs from October 2016 to September 2017 period. Already 22600 is gone, so we are left with 31400 ITAs for next 7 months. This breaks down to 4500 per month. Add 1000 for the PNP per month. Add conservative rejection ratio - 20% (which used to be 35% earlier). This leads to 1000 per month.

So overall, 4500+1000+1000=6500 per month means 3200 plus draw every two weeks.

I dont see a reason of the fall in draw size, atleast for the next three months. March, April and May 2017. Considering total 7 draws (including one more draw of Feb), I do believe that scores will drop to 420+/- 10 by May end.

Do you call that analysis?? That's a whole POC for EE.
Hats off to you guys...

 

[ramansingh05]

What my empty brain says is people are more inclined to Ontario/BC and Alberta. ONIP has opened this week. BC is tough I guess and dont know about Alberta. So we shouldn't be worried about PNPs. Anyone with more than 400 shouldn't be.

My Plan -

1. Wait for ITA.
2. If comes before ONIP. ONIP goes to trash bin.
3. If ONIP comes, wait for 30 days for ITA. If not forget ITA and accept ONIP.
4. If both don't come. Never mind...
5. Wait again for ITA.


When we get NOI from OINP then do we have 30 days to accept it ??..

 

[ramansingh05]

Me:

Considering the quota and clearing of the backlog there should be at least 60.000 ITAs issued through ExpressEntry, and that's minimum (before it was 30.000 ITAs and they said 50% of the quota came from Express Entry so now it should be 60.000 + the quota is higher than in 2016. so even more)

Also we know they started filling quota for 2017. around October (source: CIC guy) so looking at the numbers around 20.000 ITAs for 2017. is already issued (lets say that is 30.000 PR's (because someone said it was 1.5 PR per 1 ITA if I am not mistaken)..

that leaves us with about 30.000 ITAs through EE (45.000 PR's) since they plan 73,700 economic migrants..

+ there is another 30.000 PNP nominations planned (51.000 PNP PR's)..

that makes for another 60.000 ITA's until October 2017. when they will start filling quota for 2018.

Thats my calculation- it makes about 7.000 ITAs per month including PNPs (which is already happening). With this rate we'll hit 400 CRS.

Pawshi:

I totally agree with your views. However, I have difference of opinion on PNP figures. I consider this as to be 15% in each draw.

From October 2016 to till date almost 26610+ ITAs have been issued. Considering 15% of them as PNP, then it becomes 22600+ as economic immigrants till date.

Total annual target for economic immigrants is 72000+. If we consider 1:1.5 as ITA vs family ratio, then we need 54000 ITAs from October 2016 to September 2017 period. Already 22600 is gone, so we are left with 31400 ITAs for next 7 months. This breaks down to 4500 per month. Add 1000 for the PNP per month. Add conservative rejection ratio - 20% (which used to be 35% earlier). This leads to 1000 per month.

So overall, 4500+1000+1000=6500 per month means 3200 plus draw every two weeks.

I dont see a reason of the fall in draw size, atleast for the next three months. March, April and May 2017. Considering total 7 draws (including one more draw of Feb), I do believe that scores will drop to 420+/- 10 by May end.

+1 for you... Hats off to u.. what's your CRS??..

 

[tarpank]

;DI remember myself closing my eyes before looking at the draw score.

 

[astralsource]

Unclear about OINP deadline, it doesnt say ??? That "30 days" refers to Step 3 long after applying! Nobody seems to have a solution.