RAY of HOPE 54th Draw (Predictions)

[Mthornt]

Now is the time for "Refocusing Express Entry" plan to really come true in real life.

Now we are so close to 54 draw.. I would like to quote IRCC to remove doubts and anxiety..
*Moving forward, slide from IRCC presentation: May 2016.

"Because of the high volume of candidates with scores of 600 or more, and modest invitation rounds, the invitation cut‐off score has never decreased below 450 points, making it difficult for candidates with high levels of human capital to receive invitation".

So changes implemented in November are meant to affect the cut-off score to go lower, also The average human capital of invited candidates will become higher (in comparison to before when a lot of <300 CRS candidates got through LMIAs).. also, The occupational profile of invited candidates will change since the majority until now were Cooks and Food supervisors (2015 data).

The number of ITA should stabilise if not in February, then March, following OINP re-opening..

Those are mine expectations.

Astral can you post the link to the location of this statement pls? Thx

 

[somnavie]

Hi Guys !

Sitting at 440 ......

Any luck for CRS to drop below 440 in coming weeks.

Thanks for your revert....


Cheers

Navie

 

[astralsource]

Astral can you post the link to the location of this statement pls? Thx

I could repost it forever! https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.cerc.ca/resource/resmgr/government_relations/Express_entry_national_stake.pdf

Sorry its from July not May...

@somnavie I see it in March...

 

[Mthornt]

Thx, from the looks of this (page 4) 59% of candidates through May of last year had PNP or job offer. If this percentage remains similar, consistent draws should certainly drop the score. Job offers (for the most part) are not offering as many points, so many of these candidates will no longer leap to the front, at least not in the numbers that they were previously doing. Pretty interesting.

"About two‐thirds (66%) of candidates with offers
of arranged employment claimed core scores of
300 or less, meaning a majority of job offer
candidates had core human capital scores that
would place them in the bottom 7% of the
distribution"

 

[astralsource]

Yes, and + a lot of the the (paperbased applications) backlog cleared, and a higher 2017 quota.. they know exactly what they are doing

 

[Pawshi]

the question comes out is - what is considered high human capital?

 

[astralsource]

the question comes out is - what is considered high human capital?

As per IRCC, we know its below 450 but dont know how low... I would say 400 since OINP human capital has this mark (and could be even further below with the new EE hierarchy)

 

[Pawshi]

Also, remember that every draw has PNP candidates. So those does not eat the economic immigrant quota. They are from PNP quota.

Also, all the PNPs does not comes into purview of EE. Like the BC PNP, some of the streams are province specific. The recent draw of BC PNP only 232 comes into EE. Rest all is province specific.

Similarly, SINP OID is not related to EE.


BC PNP Draw of Feb 3, 2017

Date Stream / Category Minimum
Score Number of
Invitations


Feburary 3, 2017
EEBC - Skilled Worker 95 137
EEBC - International Graduate 85 95
SI - Skilled Worker 100 76
SI - International Graduate 90 88
SI - Entry Level and Semi-Skilled 70 61

 

[Pawshi]

yes, that is the first indicative score for the high human capital as OINP kept the cutoff to that level for 2015 and early 2016.

 

[Pippin]

Agree with the above statements. However, the low human capital claimed by LMIA applicants may reflect the fact they had no NEED to get ECA or highest IELTS they could. Now the 600 is gone for LMIA, they are probably improving their capital.

 

[astralsource]

Agree with the above statements. However, the low human capital claimed by LMIA applicants may reflect the fact they had no NEED to get ECA or highest IELTS they could. Now the 600 is gone for LMIA, they are
pribably improving their capital.

Most of them were in food industry and I think no college is needed for those occupations.. so getting ECA is not going to change much for them.. not sure how many points they get for high school education.. I think LMIA was the only way for those candidates.

 

[danif69]

Let's breach that god damn threshold of 450!!

 

[sunchaser]

Come 446 with 3500 ITAs... good luck guys

 

[astralsource]

Let's breach that god damn threshold of 450!!

ABOUT TIME!!!!!

 

[monavy]

over the period of 1 year, i believe the score will even breach 400 if the trend continuous.