It is possible. I would have said no if the draw hadn't have happened last week however CIC seem confident their *bugs* have been suitably fixed. I think it's 50/50. Let's wait and seeaniket2789 said:
Ray of HOPE *50th Draw*(Score Prediction)
- Thread starter OMG_Chakromakro
- Start date
9 - nope, there is also "Score prediction" in the title of this thread. You can run on the pure hope if you have either not much chance to further influence your situation (for example you have serious health condition you are fighting with all you can and hope keeps you on running) or if are in the very changing enviroment where you cannot predict much the outcome (you hope, that the weather on your next holiday will be nice). when it comes to the point system neither is the case. The only sudden change of the points can only come if they will change the rules again of if the amount of accepted candidates is significantly higher. Otherwise the system will stay rather stable with no significant points fluctuation.johnsyk said:
What I was stating before was the real example of how many EE accounts were created within 80 days (between beginning of August and second half of October). That can give you a bit idea about newcomers (new applicants in the system). And the points redistribution (a Flash photo of the system at the certain point), can give you idea how many of them are with high amount of points.
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ensak link=topic=465586.msg5656016#msg5656016 date=1482139463]
9 - nope, there is also "Score prediction" in the title of this thread. You can run on the pure hope if you have either not much chance to further influence your situation (for example you have serious health condition you are fighting with all you can and hope keeps you on running) or if are in the very changing enviroment where you cannot predict much the outcome (you hope, that the weather on your next holiday will be nice). when it comes to the point system neither is the case. The only sudden change of the points can only come if they will change the rules again of if the amount of accepted candidates is significantly higher. Otherwise the system will stay rather stable with no significant points fluctuation.
What I was stating before was the real example of how many EE accounts were created within 80 days (between beginning of August and second half of October). That can give you a bit idea about newcomers (new applicants in the system). And the points redistribution (a Flash photo of the system at the certain point), can give you idea how many of them are with high amount of points.
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You ramble and ramble, speaking over my head ( instead of into my head) .....As far as this last post is concerned, you have said nothing, absolutely nothing !
ensak link=topic=465586.msg5656016#msg5656016 date=1482139463]
9 - nope, there is also "Score prediction" in the title of this thread. You can run on the pure hope if you have either not much chance to further influence your situation (for example you have serious health condition you are fighting with all you can and hope keeps you on running) or if are in the very changing enviroment where you cannot predict much the outcome (you hope, that the weather on your next holiday will be nice). when it comes to the point system neither is the case. The only sudden change of the points can only come if they will change the rules again of if the amount of accepted candidates is significantly higher. Otherwise the system will stay rather stable with no significant points fluctuation.
What I was stating before was the real example of how many EE accounts were created within 80 days (between beginning of August and second half of October). That can give you a bit idea about newcomers (new applicants in the system). And the points redistribution (a Flash photo of the system at the certain point), can give you idea how many of them are with high amount of points.
[/quote]
You ramble and ramble, speaking over my head ( instead of into my head) .....As far as this last post is concerned, you have said nothing, absolutely nothing !
vensak said:
I think what you are trying to say has been addressed in point 10.
Ever considered doing IELTS again to improve your scores because you are clearly a 5 in writing.
thats a comment in poor taste... if you dont like what someone is trying to say, i would suggest dont read it... simplejohnsyk said:
eventually yes, but not in the near future...ajnj2730 said:Will the cut off drop to 450 ever?
Is there any hope at all for those who are in 450ish?
you should look at PNP options
Why would I? I am not running on hope that points will eventually decrease below 400. I have taken actions to work on my score instead of just iddle waiting for next gold pot at the end of the rainbow.kryt0n said:
If this topic is too difficult, I would recommend something more simple to read. For example how to make 20% gain on saving account in Canada would be a topic with equal amount of hope, you are looking for.Castillo said:
I see no problem with writing hard facts. Also I understand that no everybody is capable to understand them or willing to understand them.johnsyk said:
Giving fake hope in this system is actually disposing of potential competition from using alternative ways. The less people will understand the current situation (instead of being lulled by fake hope), the less competition in the PNP for example.
1 - It is too early to predict anything. -
Nope it is not. We have some facts that will not change over the year (quotas for each immigration group and average size of the immigration family for example). On the top we already have the history of the all draws until now. If you are a bit skilled, you can make some statistics from that as well. We have also few static pictures of the system (report of number of candidates in the system at certain date and also report stating number of invited candidates with % of LMIA and PNP candidates and also amount of their human capital core CRS score.). You can even get a fairly good estimation of international students eligible for the EE from the number of graduates as this is also available. The only thing that was missing were the LMIA extempt applicants.
But with all those data you can make a rather good analysis and prediction (of course under condition that no significant changes will be made in the system).
2 - Even if we have enough data, we could still be wrong ( proven multiple times in the past).
Having the data and being able to properly use them are 2 different things. Some of the prediction brough to this forum were from the immigration agents who were selling the Canadian dream. So they were naturaly making nicer picture than the reality. (if a potential clients sees that he can maybe make it, he will be more eager to sign in and to pay them the Money)
3 - CIC is unpredictable. They will do anything anytime.
Again not really. Whole immigration system stems from the priorities for the country. These priorities are given by the ruling government. And this government was at the end of the day elected by people of the country. For those specialised in politics and macroeconomy most of the steps are rather predictable. However for most of common Jills and Joes the whole system is unpredictable.
4 - Sometimes the analysis here makes sense. Most don't.
True. Too many analysis are driven by hope or lack of knowledge so they are either to dark or too nice to be true.
5 - Even the best analysis with data backing is based on a trend. I used to see a lot sensible analysis a few months back. I see less and less of that off-late. Maybe many got their ITA and moved on or they are waiting for more data instead of posting drivel.
The whole system is rather stable. With almost 2 years data you can already recognise what is seasonal trend (like higher amount of PNP candidates) and what is not. And because the whole system has become a common knowledge, the trend of higher average yearly CRS is visible (people have understood how points work and they are now improving their score to be able to get in).
6 - We have not had enough ITA's after the November 19th changes to make any sense of anything. Hence till the middle of March or till the year end report comes in, it's all mostly going to be drivel. Please take everything with a pinch of salt.
This draw can be easily compared with the low draws during the summer (where similar amount of non LMIA and non PNP candidates can be estimated). From that a jump of the +15 points is already there.
7 - Your Hamster or Crystal balls might be more accurate considering that we have no data to back up any of this at the moment.
We are just missing some sound estimation of how many people benefited from +50 points. Datas or good estimations for other parts of the puzzle were already available.
8 - If you do not own a Hamster or crystal ball, there are people who claim to speak to agents every single day on the phone. They are as accurate as the hamster.
You might be refering to the fact the somebody did call CIC Office for some other information and he also asked about if the draw was happening. Upon that he was told no (that was 2 weeks after the point system has changed). That person put that information in full honesty on the forum. Later on, there was last moment draw and people "thanked" him by all kind of complains. Then 2 weeks later calling agent became a popular joke statement. That might also explain the lack of serious analysis on this forum lately (if the reality is not shiny enough you are told to be blabbering nonsense, so next time you will not bother to post something like that on the forum).
9 - This is the Ray of Hope thread. Hope is an emotional feeling which goes beyond logic and hard facts most of the time. Even when everything seems to go against us, we still live on hope. Looking for that ray to shine through. So enjoy that feeling.
Having hope is nice, being foolish can be even damaging to yourself.
10 - End of the day, do whatever it takes to increase your scores. Try LIMA. Try PNP. Go to study. Learn French. Improve your English. Whatever it takes. And then hope for the best.
True. And most important part of your post.