Ray of Hope - *49th Draw*

[kyuuan]

You are ignoring the nominations being given now

There are at most 1000 nominations for the time being. Even with 1500 PNPs , the rest of the ITAs would go to ppl with 499 or less CRS

 

[Pitlord]

Lol all it takes is some technical difficulties for people to draw ridiculous conclusions.

LOL all it takes is bunch of sheeps to get more wool

 

[Pitlord]

Its not about too many immigrants. They admitted 25K syrian refugees that cuts the economic immigrant target thats why they were drawing 750. If it was because of too many immigrants mcccullam would not have said that canada needs more immigrants and he increased economic immigrants targets and said this is the minimum we will build our numbers more from here it means there will much higher targets in coming yrs.

And we have seen now from last few draws that the number of ITAs have gone up these all are positive indicators that the govt wants more immigrants.

 

[gadoken]

LOL all it takes is bunch of sheeps to get more wool

Damn what a fantastic counter.

 

[Pitlord]

Its not about too many immigrants. They admitted 25K syrian refugees that cuts the economic immigrant target thats why they were drawing 750. If it was because of too many immigrants mcccullam would not have said that canada needs more immigrants and he increased economic immigrants targets and said this is the minimum we will build our numbers more from here it means there will much higher targets in coming yrs.

And we have seen now from last few draws that the number of ITAs have gone up these all are positive indicators that the govt wants more immigrants.

25k refugees are here temporarily. That is different program and they will go back as soon as war is done.

Mccullam went to West coast at the end of summer where employers pushed him to get more immigrants in since the labour market needs cheap workers since Canadians won't do it.
When he jumped on that case he and his plan got huge resistance in Parliament by Conservative party. It was all over newspapers how we (immigrants) are not sharing Canadian values.

To me, this is enough to conclude that a reasonable politician, as Mccullam is, would change his strategy. Who would you rather listen to get more votes hand full of greedy employers or mass populistic voters?

 

[vensak]

And what if that "positive indicator" of draws going up, was just simple preparatio for the change of rules and xmass period.
They invited more in November in order to compensate for possible technical issues in December.

If you want to see the real trend, you need to look at the bigger Picture. and that bigger picter was so far showing slow upward trend of the required points. What is still missing is some sound data of the points distribution after the change of the system.

 

[gadoken]

25k refugees are here temporarily. That is different program and they will go back as soon as war is done.

Mccullam went to West coast at the end of summer where employers pushed him to get more immigrants in since the labour market needs cheap workers since Canadians won't do it.
When he jumped on that case he and his plan got huge resistance in Parliament by Conservative party. It was all over newspapers how we (immigrants) are not sharing Canadian values.

To me, this is enough to conclude that a reasonable politician, as Mccullam is, would change his strategy. Who would you rather listen to get more votes hand full of greedy employers or mass populistic voters?

That must be why they posted http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?mthd=advSrch&crtr.page=1&nid=1168949 couple days ago.

 

[Pitlord]

And what if that "positive indicator" of draws going up, was just simple preparatio for the change of rules and xmass period.
They invited more in November in order to compensate for possible technical issues in December.

If you want to see the real trend, you need to look at the bigger Picture. and that bigger picter was so far showing slow upward trend of the required points. What is still missing is some sound data of the points distribution after the change of the system.

There is about 4500 ITAs in EE of 2016 less than in 2015. They can draw it out on Wednesday to even it up but this is still far away from their promises.
I see a decline tendency. I see excuses in paper application from Harper's government, programming.. Say what you want, but I don't think that this will go down to where it was before

 

[vensak]

There is about 4500 ITAs in EE of 2016 less than in 2015. They can draw it out on Wednesday to even it up but this is still far away from their promises.
I see a decline tendency. I see excuses in paper application from Harper's government, programming.. Say what you want, but I don't think that this will go down to where it was before

And those 4500 less would nicely correspond with the increased amount of refugees accepted this year.
I am also not saying that the normal number is 750 to 900 (what we have seen between May and September). But neither is it 2000 or 2500 (that is what we see now).
For example 2000 per average draw per average time of 2 weeks, would give us 50000 invitations per year.
Mulitply it with 2,2 (size of the average family applying) and you will end with 110k applications.

Now in that amount there is a mixture of all economy immigrants and app. 30% of PNP that uses EE.

However if you check quota for next year you will get around (70k direct economy immigrants and 15k through provinces). That is unfortunatelly less than 110k.

Let us assume that next year will be the last one with some paper application leftovers (without PNP). - here there are no valid data, but we can talk about maybe 20k leftovers (just guessing).
Hence the reason why awaiting big draws is too optimistic.
My assumption is around 1500 ITA per draw with maybe raising tendency toward end of the year (but that rising just might come from the more and more PNP aligning with EE).

When it comes to this year we had lower quotas because of the increased amount of refugees plus closing up with the old system. However the average draw was around 1200 ITA (from whole 2016). However if you count all draws together and check the lower quotas for this year you will already get the Picture where the quota for this year ITA was practicaly exhausted.

Will we have more ITA in 2017 than in 2016?

Ye we will. It is just not to await those miracle numbers (unless there will be bigger amount of PNP as well).

 

[Pitlord]

And those 4500 less would nicely correspond with the increased amount of refugees accepted this year.
I am also not saying that the normal number is 750 to 900 (what we have seen between May and September). But neither is it 2000 or 2500 (that is what we see now).
For example 2000 per average draw per average time of 2 weeks, would give us 50000 invitations per year.
Mulitply it with 2,2 (size of the average family applying) and you will end with 110k applications.

Now in that amount there is a mixture of all economy immigrants and app. 30% of PNP that uses EE.

However if you check quota for next year you will get around (70k direct economy immigrants and 15k through provinces). That is unfortunatelly less than 110k.

Let us assume that next year will be the last one with some paper application leftovers (without PNP). - here there are no valid data, but we can talk about maybe 20k leftovers (just guessing).
Hence the reason why awaiting big draws is too optimistic.
My assumption is around 1500 ITA per draw with maybe raising tendency toward end of the year (but that rising just might come from the more and more PNP aligning with EE).

When it comes to this year we had lower quotas because of the increased amount of refugees plus closing up with the old system. However the average draw was around 1200 ITA (from whole 2016). However if you count all draws together and check the lower quotas for this year you will already get the Picture where the quota for this year ITA was practicaly exhausted.

Will we have more ITA in 2017 than in 2016?

Ye we will. It is just not to await those miracle numbers (unless there will be bigger amount of PNP as well).

You, my friend are insanely optimistic or you just trust politicians on every word they say.

I would remind you that there were government representatives that went public earlier this year predicting cut off score dropping to 400 in Oct / Nov.

Prime minister promised legalising marihuana (which I am against, but who am I) and he is saying now that they have a 4 year mandate to do so. Why he didn't do it first day after taking the office?
I can go on and on with examples of how this establishment gives hopes to people but never keeps them.
I hate to be negative. Currently siting on 474 and would love to see your and their predictions become true.
But also we don't live in future but in present. Fortunately or unfortunately past events don't give us a hope and probably make present miserable especially to those who pray to hamsters.

If the government officials don't feel for us who sacrifice a lot to become Canadians, and they don't, there is no further point on expecting that they will do something for us e. i. dropping cut off score.

 

[g126]

This thread has gone silent... I guess the ray of hope has lost all hope!

Buy honestly, come on IRCC... Get your act together and give us a DRAW!!!

This is insane... can they go all of december without a smegging DRAW?!?!?!?!

First half of the month is gone.. it disappeared into the past with yesterday... Now we're onto the second half, whcih is notorious for it's holiday breaks and lack of activity... Oh Pooh! That's it! Lost all hope as well...

 

[Batman_is_Real]

This thread has gone silent... I guess the ray of hope has lost all hope!

Buy honestly, come on IRCC... Get your act together and give us a DRAW!!!

This is insane... can they go all of december without a smegging DRAW?!?!?!?!

First half of the month is gone.. it disappeared into the past with yesterday... Now we're onto the second half, whcih is notorious for it's holiday breaks and lack of activity... Oh Pooh! That's it! Lost all hope as well...

Should be at least one draw probably on 21st.

 

[AlliBatista]

I sense a gigantic draw on December 23rd :-X

 

[g126]

Should be at least one draw probably on 21st.

Well with all the nominations I was expecting at least two draws this month... one today (at least to flush out PNPs) and then another more general on the 21st... But it seems that we'll only have one on the 21st... IF we do... the 21st is the absolute last chance, I hope they don't have more technical glitches on the 21st

 

[g126]

I sense a gigantic draw on December 23rd :-X

Nah... if they didn't do one today I can't see them doing one next Friday, they probably want to keep the pattern of just Wednesdays this year.