Ray of Hope - *48th Draw*

[DelPiero07]

Just curious..I have done medical and PCC on Feb 2016. Do I need to do the same again If i get the ITA before Feb, 2017?

Yes, your medical has to have at least 6 months of validity when you submit your eAPR. You need a new medical

Cheers

 

[Caesarpy]

Just curious..I have done medical and PCC on Feb 2016. Do I need to do the same again If i get the ITA before Feb, 2017?

If your PCC is for your current resident country, I think you need to get new one, since it requires that the PCC for current resident country should be issued no more than 6 months before you submit application.

 

[sarikar]

Yes, your medical has to have at least 6 months of validity when you submit your eAPR. You need a new medical

Cheers

But in this this link

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/information/medical/medexams-perm.asp

it says..Validity
Your medical exam results are valid for 12 months only. If you do not come to Canada as a permanent resident within that time, you may need to have another exam.

 

[DelPiero07]

But in this this link

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/information/medical/medexams-perm.asp

it says..Validity
Your medical exam results are valid for 12 months only. If you do not come to Canada as a permanent resident within that time, you may need to have another exam.

You can ask any senior here, they will tell you the same thing.

Cheers

 

[thourb]

Based on some predictions on the forum, there are 10.000 students over 450. So next few draws we really might see an increase of CRS CUT OFF.
Then possible 474 for 48th draw.

Anyone who thinks that there are 10,000 students over 450 needs to have their head checked. Look at the statistics from 2015 year-end report:

400 - 449 13,537
440 - 449 2,486
430 - 439 2,842
420 - 429 2,185
410 - 419 2,899
400 - 409 3,125

A resonable average for a well qualified graduate (bachelors degree, CLB 9, under 30) would get only around 432 CRS (pre Fall changes). According to the year-end report above, there were only 2,842 people in that band. Adding on the extra 30 bonus points would take them to 462, but not all of the people in that band would be Canadian educated students, so many won't get any bonus points. I can't possibly speculate on how many of them are international graduates with Canadian education, but since Minister McCallum's target is at least 40%, I think you can probably say that the figure is lower than 40% of that group being eligible for the 30 point bonus.

Still, I fully expect that if ITAs stay the same that there will be a modest increase in scores over the next few draws before it starts to fall as a result of fewer points being given for LMIAs. The news is very positive if you have a score of 400+ over the next 6 months in my view. Many people have ridiculed the guy in the CIC video, saying that ITAs will increase and score will drop. Everything he has said has happened - and his prediction was for sub 400 scores after the pre-EE backlog is dealt with.

I think it's very telling that CIC view scores of 400+ as "high human capital". The fact is that, with these changes, they have put a massive emphasis on human capital over job offers. That, combined with the clearing of the pre-EE backlog, is going to result in much lower CRS scores in the coming months.

 

[Caesarpy]

Anyone who thinks that there are 10,000 students over 450 needs to have their head checked. Look at the statistics from 2015 year-end report:

400 - 449 13,537
440 - 449 2,486
430 - 439 2,842
420 - 429 2,185
410 - 419 2,899
400 - 409 3,125

A resonable average for a well qualified graduate (bachelors degree, CLB 9, under 30) would get only around 432 CRS (pre Fall changes). According to the year-end report above, there were only 2,842 people in that band. Adding on the extra 30 bonus points would take them to 462, but not all of the people in that band would be Canadian educated students, so many won't get any bonus points. I can't possibly speculate on how many of them are international graduates with Canadian education, but since Minister McCallum's target is at least 40%, I think you can probably say that the figure is lower than 40% of that group being eligible for the 30 point bonus.

Still, I fully expect that if ITAs stay the same that there will be a modest increase in scores over the next few draws before it starts to fall as a result of fewer points being given for LMIAs. The news is very positive if you have a score of 400+ over the next 6 months in my view. Many people have ridiculed the guy in the CIC video, saying that ITAs will increase and score will drop. Everything he has said has happened - and his prediction was for sub 400 scores after the pre-EE backlog is dealt with.

I think it's very telling that CIC view scores of 400+ as "high human capital". The fact is that, with these changes, they have put a massive emphasis on human capital over job offers. That, combined with the clearing of the pre-EE backlog, is going to result in much lower CRS scores in the coming months.

I think your analysis is logical, the problem is: after a year, no one knows what's the current situation of the pool. I believe the cut off will eventually be getting lower, but how long will it take to reach a specific CRS point (such as 450) is a question.

 

[thourb]

I think your analysis is logical, the problem is: after a year, no one knows what's the current situation of the pool. I believe the cut off will eventually be getting lower, but how long will it take to reach a specific CRS point (such as 450) is a question.

It's not after a year though. We have much more recent data that shows that actually the number of candidates in the pool have actually gone down. At the end of 2015, there were 60,042 candidates in the pool. The most recent data we have is from May 2016, showing approximately 57,500 candidates in the pool - a decrease of approximately 4%. (Data comes from the Refocusing Express Entry presentation: https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.cerc.ca/resource/resmgr/government_relations/Express_entry_national_stake.pdf)

Granted, I cannot possibly calculate or even guess at the exact composition of the pool, however I think that it's fair to say that numbers won't have spiked from this time last year on the basis of the facts we know. Indeed, as we know, ITAs have surged in the last month or two - reaching record levels. There's every chance that the number of people in the pool is even lower than what it was in May.

My hunch is that there were a lot of people in the < 450 score range in 2015-16 who were discouraged by the fact that the CRS score required was constantly higher than their own maximum CRS score. Therefore, many people would have simply let their Express Entry profile expire and would not have reapplied. Some may have lost interest in emmigrating to Canada altogether, whilst others could have sought PNP or LMIAs. Conversely, some would have improved their IELTS or education, improved their CRS and may have had an ITA. This, along with the several month period where ITAs were only around 750, could explain why there are now clearly more people in the 450-470 range than there were a year ago.

People have got a habit on this forum of overestimating the number of people with high CRS. It wasn't that long ago, for example, that some were saying there were likely 2000+ people sitting on a score of 482. How quickly they were proved wrong!

 

[jianxia15]

Does anyone know if you get a lower IELTS score on the 2nd try do you take the results from the most recent test or you can pick and choose whichever is higher? My first IELTS test was done in March 2016?

You can choose the better of the two as long as they are valid.

 

[Wolverine17]

Sitting at 463,not sure if there is any chance in the upcoming draw

 

[lulu lemon3]

I'm stuck at 445 lol.I have a skill trade that's taken forever to be assessed.I pray that i get my assessment soon which will give me 50 more points and then + the new changes, i think i will be a bit more happy

 

[jianxia15]

I am at 453 now and my score will rise to 478 next April after having three year working experience. But I do hope that CRS will drop to 453 before April. Pray.

 

[thourb]

Sitting at 463,not sure if there is any chance in the upcoming draw

I'd be extremely surprised if you got an ITA in the next draw. I think that the strong likelihood is that there are more international students sitting around the 440-460 range than there are LMIA holders who will be displaced as a result of losing 550 points. My bet is that there will be a modest increase in CRS requirements for this next draw or two. Wouldn't be surprised to see CRS of around 475-480 with ITAs around 2300. It's a very difficult draw to make a prediction for though, these waters are truly uncharted!

In better news for you though, any backlog of high-scoring international graduates will quickly disappear. You can expect an ITA by the end of the year I think.

 

[JattTinka]

467 after bonus points. ;D

 

[ssiddharthsuresh]

Missed today's draw by two freaking points. Don't know how the new changes are going to affect the cut off scores. On November 19th I will be getting 30 more points to bring my CRS to 498. Do you guys think it is good enough for draws based on the new system. Keeping my fingers, toes and everything in my body crossed..... :'(

 

[kashish948]

473 after nov 19.........what do you guys think?