I posted a bit of an analysis in another thread which I don't think can be far off on the basis of this draw:
Historically, on the data we have available, we know that 60% of ITAs go to those with PNPs or LMIAs. This is on the basis that there is an average 1350 ITAs given per draw (this is all based on 2015 data). So per draw we can expect 810 (on average) LMIA/PNP holders will get nomination. Thus in today's draw, I won't have been far off my estimates (likely a few hundred out) - 1800 ITAs of which 800 approx PNP/LMIA and approximately 1000 non LMIA/PNP. It's actually fairly likely that there were fewer LMIA/PNP in this draw (perhaps only half of the 810 average) due to this draw being only one week on from the previous draw. If that were the case then my guess is probably spot on - 1800 ITAs, 1400 of which have no PNP, 1000 in the 480s and 500 in the 470s.
On this basis, if we get another draw of around 1800 in a fortnight I would expect that 800 of those would be 600+, very few in the 480's (I expect no more than 60) and then perhaps around 900-1000 (around half of my earlier estimate now that much of any backlog has been cleared) in the 470s. All in all, if we get another draw of 1800 I expect scores to mostly clear the 470s and CRS will be in the range 469-472. If CRS drops down to 1500 I can't see it going below 472.
Will be really interested to see whether this rudimentary estimation that I've made based on very approximate data has any standing in reality, but on the basis of this past draw I'm pretty much spot on to what I'd expected.
