Ray of Hope - 45th Draw

[mukulabd]

This Video has been floating on this forum for quite a long, I would not believe any of these lawyers or Consultants until and unless I see the results...

Not being pessimist, but these ppl (consultants) always make unrealistic predictions so as to attract more customers. I have been there. Even I am referring a local consultant who tells everybody that their chances are high and also puts these kind of videos on the Internet. I would not fall for such false predictions and would rather believe in something coming from the government itself.

 

[DelPiero07]

When the guy uses words like "possibly" and "probably" it is clear he's just full of it.

 

[ams1135]

I hope they are not going to draw every three weeks instead of two for the 1500 invites

 

[Prats6]

Last was a disgusting draw. I really want CIC (or IRCC) to come out and spell their priorities. If PNPs are the only way to go, let them make it clear so that people aren't in a limbo. When I did think about immigration, I had 2 choices, Oz and Canada - Canada seemed a friendlier and better place to go, with the education system there. But this year has been bad and this Govt. if anything is doing worse than the last one. Really like the personality of the PM but the policies seem a bit shallow.

Just bloody come out with your projections. And No, I don't want to go on a PNP to SK (which I did not apply, even though was eligible) and be stuck without a job or do a survival job. I really want to be in Canada but the turn of events have really turned me off. Here's hoping it becomes better next year. Also, I have stopped checking the forums as it the scores and numbers seemed to have lost relevance. I am on 460, but imagine the plight of people stuck on 480.. God, sounds awful!

 

[johnsyk]

Last was a disgusting draw. I really want CIC (or IRCC) to come out and spell their priorities. If PNPs are the only way to go, let them make it clear so that people aren't in a limbo. When I did think about immigration, I had 2 choices, Oz and Canada - Canada seemed a friendlier and better place to go, with the education system there. But this year has been bad and this Govt. if anything is doing worse than the last one. Really like the personality of the PM but the policies seem a bit shallow.

Just bloody come out with your projections. And No, I don't want to go on a PNP to SK (which I did not apply, even though was eligible) and be stuck without a job or do a survival job. I really want to be in Canada but the turn of events have really turned me off. Here's hoping it becomes better next year. Also, I have stopped checking the forums as it the scores and numbers seemed to have lost relevance. I am on 460, but imagine the plight of people stuck on 480.. God, sounds awful!

I still think EE is a lot better than their previous system. 8 years back I was considering a move to Canada. However, my job was not in their NOC requirement those days so I had no chance. Today, 8 years later, I have a shot of moving to Canada. My score is only 452 but I still think I have a long shot through a PNP or an ITA at some point. If not anything, atleast a ray of hope. Yes, if EE was present 8 years back, I would have had a lot more points since I did my masters more than 10 years back....and 8 years younger! But heck, thats life. ITs not perfect. Its never fair. Its about luck. Being at the right place and right time. And doing your best when the opportunity comes knocking.

 

[johnsyk]

Luck plays a big role - Last October this time - Exactly a year back, the cut off was 450. Yes - 450. If we had our profiles up last year this time, many of us on this thread would have probably landed today in our new home. Right place. Right time. If its meant to be, its meant to be. Thats all to it. Don't stress it.

 

[DamhaSirah]

Only 5 or 6 draws left for 2016, approximately space for 7,500-9,000 ITAs (6 X 1,500 = 9,000). Therefore, I guess cutoff scores can go below 482 with this trend of 1,500 ITAs in each subsequent draw. 7,500-9,000 ITAs are a good number of ITAs still left for this year. They were getting cutoffs as low as CRS 482 with just ~700 ITAs a few weeks ago.

Cheer up guys. There is a lot of hope there!

 

[Divyasharad]

Hi All,

I am stuck at 472 points since May. I don't know how much more I need to wait. Should I take the PNP route now to get ITA? Will I get PNP from any province as my NOC code is 4163.

Please help.

 

[Sluffy]

They'll be announced on or before 1 Nov
http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/provinces-want-to-ensure-supports-are-in-place-for-immigration-boost/

Thanks for the link

To be more precise

“We’ve consulted very deeply and broadly with provincial governments, but we are not in a place to announce that until Nov. 1.”

 

[vensak]

Last was a disgusting draw. I really want CIC (or IRCC) to come out and spell their priorities. If PNPs are the only way to go, let them make it clear so that people aren't in a limbo. When I did think about immigration, I had 2 choices, Oz and Canada - Canada seemed a friendlier and better place to go, with the education system there. But this year has been bad and this Govt. if anything is doing worse than the last one. Really like the personality of the PM but the policies seem a bit shallow.

Just bloody come out with your projections. And No, I don't want to go on a PNP to SK (which I did not apply, even though was eligible) and be stuck without a job or do a survival job. I really want to be in Canada but the turn of events have really turned me off. Here's hoping it becomes better next year. Also, I have stopped checking the forums as it the scores and numbers seemed to have lost relevance. I am on 460, but imagine the plight of people stuck on 480.. God, sounds awful!

I do not know your NOC, but the funny thing is that especially in the most wanted province like Ontario and British Columbia there is really high competition. Many native graduates were not able to find job over there.
So having opened choices does not mean that you will not end up on survival jobs at the start.
Canada is just doing what is favourable for them and that means to fill in the gaps in the areas where the gaps are (in less wanted provinces or specific specialisations).

From all those nice chats in videos I have seen one, where some statistics was given.

Canada takes in between 260 -300k immigrants per year (but that is for all types).
Around 45% are economic immigrants (so minus family, refugees and international students).
Here it was not clear if in those 45% are also people on so temporary work permits.
But lets say for the sake of calculation that they will take 120k economic migrants. However here I am guessing that they count every member of the family as economics.
Now let me assume that average applicant has 1 additional person. That would just give us 60000 invitations per year.
And again from these 60k there is some portion that does not use EE system (nominations under old FSW system, business starters...) that does cut the number down to further 30%.
So what is left at the end are like 40k invitations per EE entry. And those invitations do include around 60-70% of people that have either PNP or LMIA.
So that gives like 14K free tickets per year for economic migrants without additional 600 points.
Now you can check statistics of amount of people in each point group in the EE system in order to have idea of the chances to be nominated.
And if ever they do decide to increase different group (for example family or refugees), they do automaticaly cut down on these free nominations.

So with this calcualtion the logic is clear, PNP or LMIA is practicaly needed in order to go with the system fast.
The past with lower points will not repeat, since people are already familiar with the system and they tried to max their points with all possible ways (language tests for example).

I would predict for current trend for people to hunt down the second language in order to get those few missing points or to get with still opened PNP.

So within a year or so we will have increase of bilinguals.

 

[Sluffy]

So that gives like 14K free tickets per year for economic migrants without additional 600 points.
Now you can check statistics of amount of people in each point group in the EE system in order to have idea of the chances to be nominated.
And if ever they do decide to increase different group (for example family or refugees), they do automaticaly cut down on these free nominations.

So with this calcualtion the logic is clear, PNP or LMIA is practicaly needed in order to go with the system fast.
The past with lower points will not repeat, since people are already familiar with the system and they tried to max their points with all possible ways (language tests for example).

Well, 14k Free tickets - sounds like true accourding to current quotas.
This is the amount of 7000 ITAs which is 291 person per draw in average. And this is the number of people who enter the pool every two weeks with the score 470-481. Since the quota announced, the score never went lower as there is no space for it. So 470 was new 450 in 2016.

The new lowest score depends on new quotas.

To my mind, there's a hope that they are not going to admit so many refugees this year at economic streams expense. Humanitarian reasons are clear. but there is also money and budgeting issue. They now are facing problems with accommodating refugees, their families, housing, lack of English. But at the moment budget spends for it seem to be large without getting any profit (refugees use health care, but do not pay taxes if they have no jobs). So the part of economic stream is likely to increase this year. The issue is how it is divided by PNPs and so-called "free" streams (FSW/ CEC).

Well, I've never been so excited by any foreign country policies before that

 

[Sluffy]

Only 5 or 6 draws left for 2016, approximately space for 7,500-9,000 ITAs (6 X 1,500 = 9,000). Therefore, I guess cutoff scores can go below 482 with this trend of 1,500 ITAs in each subsequent draw. 7,500-9,000 ITAs are a good number of ITAs still left for this year. They were getting cutoffs as low as CRS 482 with just ~700 ITAs a few weeks ago.

Cheer up guys. There is a lot of hope there!

3 draws with 700 ITAs in let's say in 6 weeks (every 2 weeks)
is same as

2 draws with 1500 in 6 weeks (every 3 weeks)

They are working with a number of ITAs that may be issued, not following any draw schedule. They can make one draw per month if they need.

 

[vensak]

So most of the news about increasing number of family incomes or increasing score for international students are not very good news for current applicants. Since they will most likely not change the total yearly income, they can only play with % of each group. And the one that is most sensible to be cut down it the one with Economic migrants, especially those free ones.

So decision is simple. Either you really want in and then you try to hit whichever PNP, or you are not so keen and you will be waiting forever in the queue (and this concerns about 95% people without canadian ties who have score below 470).

 

[Heathcliff77]

The scores will drop when people stop naming the draw threads "ray of hope"

 

[smuniverse]

Hahaha, true...