Ray of Hope - 44th Draw

[johnjkjk]

What is the source of around 15%?
Suppose Ontario and other provinces have bigger quotas for EE streams than in 2015 for examples.

And if so, why don't add 15% out of this 48k going through EE?
I'm not arguing, just trying to make it clear.

1. Its was around 15% may rise to 20% if larger allocations come through. Each programme publishes EE figures which I have previously compiled. PNP target is separate from FSW etc. It is not combined. Even in EE, it is separate- PNP is guaranteed, whilst those from the general pool have to compete.

2. I'm not sure what you mean regarding adding 15% to 48k? PNP figures influence the ITA but do not influence the lowest score. The cutoff score is determined by the Highly Skilled target alone. PNP and LMIA are guaranteed and i.e., not score limited. In Sep, although ITAs went up, the score did not fall, indicating that this increased allocation was eaten up by PNP programmes releasing lots of nominations this month. If in the next draw, a PNP programme decides to release 1000 nominations then the ITA will go up by 1000, but it will not affect the cutoff score as this 1000 addition is reserved only for PNP.

Using released data for Q1-2 PR applications, (find on Canada statistics site) it is possible to determine that the per-draw figures for PNP is 250 and for LMIA it is 400 (on average). Based on past data, approx 130-150 applicants enter the pool per draw in the >482<600 range. What this means is that since May 2016, nobody has been drawn from the general EE pool and those entering the general pool in the 470-481 range would have grown by around 3000. By general pool I mean those who have been waiting for more than 1 draw.

In my ideal world it might be easy

6k left is 3k ITAs in average (if we do not consider the backlog) - 4 rounds of 750 ITAs - July and August roughly. They are likely to be admitted in 2016.
All apllication since September willbe admitted for 2017

3. 6k remained of the highly skilled target on July 1 and half the target is dedicated to the backlog. This would have been met by the end of August. Note that target figures cannot be directly translated to ITA numbers. Target is landings of applicant PLUS family members. ITAs lead to PR applications, some of which are duplicate, some declined, some refused and of those approved, the figure is multiplied because of number of family members. Some never land. In 2015 the average declined/duplicate/refusal rate was 18.4%, principal applicant:visas issued ratio was 1.74 and 73.6% land in the same year. In 2016 based upon admission numbers, because of backlog (not likely to be rejected after so many years pending), the declined/duplicate/refusal rate has fallen. Principal applicant:visas issued ratio has risen to >2 and landing ratio has probably increased too.

ll of this leads to high landings in 2016 and target therefore breached and Mr McCallum trying to cover this failure in basic budgeting by appealing to the Canadian people- and to his own party- that Canada needs more immigrants. I.e. Even if they approve higher targets in future years, it won't make any substantive difference as it would just be a more realistic budget. E.g. if I budget $1000 for my department, knowing full well that the actual cost is $2000, and to cover my failure, I appeal to the head of finance, claiming that a bigger budget will improve my work, and my budget is doubled to $2000, I won't actually have any more money in hand, but I would have a more realistic budget.

 

[Sluffy]

johnjkjk, this makes sense, thank you!

 

[thestunner316]

1. Its was around 15% may rise to 20% if larger allocations come through. Each programme publishes EE figures which I have previously compiled. PNP target is separate from FSW etc. It is not combined. Even in EE, it is separate- PNP is guaranteed, whilst those from the general pool have to compete.

2. I'm not sure what you mean regarding adding 15% to 48k? PNP figures influence the ITA but do not influence the lowest score. The cutoff score is determined by the Highly Skilled target alone. PNP and LMIA are guaranteed and i.e., not score limited. In Sep, although ITAs went up, the score did not fall, indicating that this increased allocation was eaten up by PNP programmes releasing lots of nominations this month. If in the next draw, a PNP programme decides to release 1000 nominations then the ITA will go up by 1000, but it will not affect the cutoff score as this 1000 addition is reserved only for PNP.

Using released data for Q1-2 PR applications, (find on Canada statistics site) it is possible to determine that the per-draw figures for PNP is 250 and for LMIA it is 400 (on average). Based on past data, approx 130-150 applicants enter the pool per draw in the >482<600 range. What this means is that since May 2016, nobody has been drawn from the general EE pool and those entering the general pool in the 470-481 range would have grown by around 3000. By general pool I mean those who have been waiting for more than 1 draw.

3. 6k remained of the highly skilled target on July 1 and half the target is dedicated to the backlog. This would have been met by the end of August. Note that target figures cannot be directly translated to ITA numbers. Target is landings of applicant PLUS family members. ITAs lead to PR applications, some of which are duplicate, some declined, some refused and of those approved, the figure is multiplied because of number of family members. Some never land. In 2015 the average declined/duplicate/refusal rate was 18.4%, principal applicant:visas issued ratio was 1.74 and 73.6% land in the same year. In 2016 based upon admission numbers, because of backlog (not likely to be rejected after so many years pending), the declined/duplicate/refusal rate has fallen. Principal applicant:visas issued ratio has risen to >2 and landing ratio has probably increased too.

ll of this leads to high landings in 2016 and target therefore breached and Mr McCallum trying to cover this failure in basic budgeting by appealing to the Canadian people- and to his own party- that Canada needs more immigrants. I.e. Even if they approve higher targets in future years, it won't make any substantive difference as it would just be a more realistic budget. E.g. if I budget $1000 for my department, knowing full well that the actual cost is $2000, and to cover my failure, I appeal to the head of finance, claiming that a bigger budget will improve my work, and my budget is doubled to $2000, I won't actually have any more money in hand, but I would have a more realistic budget.

awesome analysis, i didnt quite understand everything but thats becoz of my limitations in understanding
only thing i would like to mention here is the score 481 max score is ONLY for english speaking applicants, if there are people with dual lang skills then they will have a higher score... which means tehy would have been given ITA without PNP or LMIA...

 

[Pawshi]

Hey John,

Awesome! Great analytical skills.

Please also factor this link http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/refugees/welcome/milestones.asp

Actually, the IRCC has also gone above and beyond in the numbers for the refugees class. The numbers have grown much.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/09/29/Canada-takes-in-record-number-of-immigrants-in-one-year.html

This link says that IRCC has got 320,932 immigrants this year.

Thank you,
Pawshi

 

[Canada2425]

what is the expected CRS for October 5th? Any Idea?

My guess: ~1450 ITAs, CRS 478-481.

 

[ecpradeep1]

my guess should be 482 with 900 to 100O Invites, Because there are many people in 479 to 481 range.

 

[aircanada]

My guess: ~1450 ITAs, CRS 478-481.

Cut off score won't be 481 or lower unless they do a 5000+ ITA mega draw. 481 is extremely easy to obtain... There's a reason that the lowest score has been 482 for quite a while.

 

[rubinderjit]

I think that this was indicated earlier (in May) by the officials that numbers will go up in September & October. September draws were in accordance with this announcement. If trend in October continues, by October end the cutoff can touch 475. For next draw it should be 478 (+/- 1). Only thing that can screw it up is more PNP nominations. 647 ITAs were given under BC PNP on September 27. Out of these 228 were were under Express Entry BC category.

3000 people sitting on 481 is highly improbable number.


Express Entry quick facts, from January 1, 2015 to September 21, 2016

Launch date: January 1, 2015
First draw from the pool: January 31, 2015
Most recent draw from the pool: September 21, 2016
Minimum CRS points required for selection in any one draw: 450 (September 18, 2015 & October 2, 2015)
Largest number of invitations to apply issued in any one draw: 1,637 (March 27, 2015)
Fewest invitations to apply issued in any one draw: 715 (April 17, 2015)
Largest decrease in CRS points required between two consecutive draws: 273 (from May 22, 2015 to June 12, 2015 draws)
Smallest decrease in CRS points required between two consecutive draws: 0 (on three occasions)
Largest increase in CRS points required between two consecutive draws: 302 (from April 17, 2015 to May 22, 2015 draws)
Smallest increase in CRS points required between two consecutive draws: 0 (on three occasions)
Longest gap between two consecutive draws: 35 days (from April 17, 2015 to May 22, 2015 draws)
Shortest gap between two consecutive draws: 7 days (on seven occasions)
Total number of ITAs issued in 2015: 31,063
Total number of ITAs issued in 2016: 20,580
Total number of ITAs issued since system was launched: 51,643

 

[Canada2425]

Cut off score won't be 481 or lower unless they do a 5000+ ITA mega draw. 481 is extremely easy to obtain... There's a reason that the lowest score has been 482 for quite a while.

Only thing that can screw it up is more PNP nominations. 647 ITAs were given under BC PNP on September 27. Out of these 228 were were under Express Entry BC category.

5000+ is too huge number according to me. I'm sure that many people are sitting at 481 but I don't agree with 5000+ mega draw.
IMO, even ~1.7-1.8k draw can drop score below 480, assumption here would be - not too many PNP nominations but as mentioned above (not sure though) 228 BC nominations can trouble a bit.

 

[johnjkjk]

Hey John,

Awesome! Great analytical skills.

Please also factor this link http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/refugees/welcome/milestones.asp

Actually, the IRCC has also gone above and beyond in the numbers for the refugees class. The numbers have grown much.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/09/29/Canada-takes-in-record-number-of-immigrants-in-one-year.html

This link says that IRCC has got 320,932 immigrants this year.

Thank you,
Pawshi

Refugee numbers went up from 30k to 55k but family class (spouses, children etc) also went up from 65k to 80k. At the same time other economic classes such as PNP, caregivers etc were not reduced, there was a big pre-EE backlog, and more than expected people have landed. Refugees are not to blame for the record number of landings, but as explained in my original post, record numbers of FSW+CEC have landed- 20k above target last year and possibly 30-50k above target this year.

The system will normalise at some point- i.e. pre-EE backlog cleared and more realistic target set. Once that happens, EE will begin to function as it was intended. If CRS breaches the 481 mark in October, then things look very good.

 

[johnjkjk]

awesome analysis, i didnt quite understand everything but thats becoz of my limitations in understanding
only thing i would like to mention here is the score 481 max score is ONLY for english speaking applicants, if there are people with dual lang skills then they will have a higher score... which means tehy would have been given ITA without PNP or LMIA...

There are different combinations to achieve the same score, but mostly 481 can be achieved by single applicants, below 30, 3+years of foreign experience, CLB10 and a Masters. >482 can be achieved by Canadian experience (gives lots of points), a PhD and in some less common cases, a French language score. When you get to near 500, it's virtually guaranteed to get an ITA without a long wait. <481 and you're in what I call the 'general pool'- those waiting for many draws. EE was primary designed as I see it, not only to select the "best" (high score), but also to give an competitive opportunity to those from the 'general pool'. Since May, those in general pool have suffered.

 

[Sluffy]

Cut off score won't be 481 or lower unless they do a 5000+ ITA mega draw. 481 is extremely easy to obtain... There's a reason that the lowest score has been 482 for quite a while.

Jesus :-X
Where do you take this figures? From the ceiling of your room?
Sorry, don't want to offend anyone. But last time you've mentioned 3000 for 481, today you say 5000.

Again
Before May they issued 1000 ITAs with the score 470+
After that - 750 ITAs with the score 482

250 people with the score 470-481 are entering the pool every two weeks in average

11 draws with the high score make 2750 with those 470-481

My personal speculation that about half of them is 481 - just because the age group 20-30 is big, but CLB 10 is not easy for everyone to obtain
So 1300-1400 ppl with 481
and the draw should be about 2000 to bottleneck them.

 

[MZASAM]

Friends:

Awesome, in depth analysis of EE trends. WoW, are you guys with data mining / analytics background.!!!

Great!!! Canada would be lucky to get guys like you. Voluntarily, selflessly for the benefit of all applicants you all are dedicating so much of time.

With such passion for data; you must get into BigData analytics....

 

[Chiptole]

Jesus :-X
Where do you take this figures? From the ceiling of your room?
Sorry, don't want to offend anyone. But last time you've mentioned 3000 for 481, today you say 5000.

Again
Before May they issued 1000 ITAs with the score 470+
After that - 750 ITAs with the score 482

250 people with the score 470-481 are entering the pool every two weeks in average

11 draws with the high score make 2750 with those 470-481

My personal speculation that about half of them is 481 - just because the age group 20-30 is big, but CLB 10 is not easy for everyone to obtain
So 1300-1400 ppl with 481
and the draw should be about 2000 to bottleneck them.

Good analysis mate!

 

[Sluffy]

An idea came to me this morning.

We are thinking that 2000 is a huge draw because of the quota.
But it is huge for a regular draw. I mean - if everytime number of ITAs is 2000, the quota is to meet soon.

But if 2000 is drawed only once, and let's say next draw after 2000 will be not in 2 weeks, but in 3 weeks (such draws happened last year), there's a chance to bottleneck those with 481 and balance the general pool somehow.