Ray of Hope - 44th Draw

[Sluffy]

One potential reason why ITAs have been so low since May is because targets have been overshot considerably. Targets are for actual PR landings including dependants, which between Jan-Jun 2016 was 52,000 so the 2016 target of 58,400 was almost met in 6 months, with 6 months yet to go, so will have been overshot by up to 50,000 in 2016 mostly due to huge numbers of dependants. As very few non PNP, non LMIA applicants have been drawn in the past 12 draws, the following can be concluded:
1. The pre-EE backlog must have been quite large.
2. PR applicants are now bringing in lots of dependants, up to twice the number the were bringing in previous years.

Data here: http://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/ad975a26-df23-456a-8ada-756191a23695

Agree with the idea, but have smth to add


Skilled workers and PNP are in the same pool for EE and there's no difference between, I mean there is one draw for both streams.
Target number for Skilled workers was 58400, target number for PNP was 47800, all together 106 200

In the open data you've mentioned the number of admitted for Q1&Q2 in 2016 was 80 904, so the balance to be admitted in 2016 was only 25296 for July, 1.
With the previous draws with 1000-1500 ITAs and the backlog, they admitted 40 000 each quarter in average. To admit not more than 25K they reduced ITAs twice as less - that what we saw this summer.
The positive thing is that application submitted in July and further will be admitted in 2017 in most cases. Though we cannot say anything for sure for the target numbers until they are announced, but till the announcement, CIC is likely use the target for 2016 as a sample

 

[johnjkjk]

Agree with the idea, but have smth to add


Skilled workers and PNP are in the same pool for EE and there's no difference between, I mean there is one draw for both streams.
Target number for Skilled workers was 58400, target number for PNP was 47800, all together 106 200

In the open data you've mentioned the number of admitted for Q1&Q2 in 2016 was 80 904, so the balance to be admitted in 2016 was only 25296 for July, 1.
With the previous draws with 1000-1500 ITAs and the backlog, they admitted 40 000 each quarter in average. To admit not more than 25K they reduced ITAs twice as less - that what we saw this summer.
The positive thing is that application submitted in July and further will be admitted in 2017 in most cases. Though we cannot say anything for sure for the target numbers until they are announced, but till the announcement, CIC is likely use the target for 2016 as a sample

PNP and 'Federal Economic—High Skilled' (Includes FSW, CSC, FST) have separate targets, with half of the target of 58k allocated for pre-EE backlog. Also only some PNP programmes use EE, around 15% of the total 48k. In 2015, PNP and CEC target was met but FSW+FST was exceeded by some 20k. This year it stands to be exceeded by over 50k, which is double the annual target!

As it stands, 52k of the 58k Highly Skilled target was met in Q1-2, with 6 months still to go. Due to pre-EE backlog, the Highly Skilled class had to be constrained this year and the average ITA per draw for this year till date stands at 1000. The reason why it fell to the 700s this summer was because they gave out too many ITAs in Jan-March and to maintain a 1000 average, ITAs had to fall. Q3 data will be available in October, so we can see how far the target has been exceeded.

The thing is that we're now drawing from the 2017 target (ITAs in Sep cannot land this year) and the backlog has no effect on the ITAs now being allocated, but ITAs haven't doubled as should have done. The only reasonable explanation I can find for this is that the 2017 target (which for Q4 2016 we can assume to be an extrapolation of 2016 figures) has been reduced because of high landing numbers. Whether or not ITAs will jump in October depends entirely on what target figure they're working with. If Oct draws go up to the 2000 mark as has been suggested, then all's well but if not then it doesn't bode well. 1 week to go.

 

[thestunner316]

PNP and 'Federal Economic—High Skilled' (Includes FSW, CSC, FST) have separate targets, with half of the target of 58k allocated for pre-EE backlog. Also only some PNP programmes use EE, around 15% of the total 48k. In 2015, PNP and CEC target was met but FSW+FST was exceeded by some 20k. This year it stands to be exceeded by over 50k, which is double the annual target!

As it stands, 52k of the 58k Highly Skilled target was met in Q1-2, with 6 months still to go. Due to pre-EE backlog, the Highly Skilled class had to be constrained this year and the average ITA per draw for this year till date stands at 1000. The reason why it fell to the 700s this summer was because they gave out too many ITAs in Jan-March and to maintain a 1000 average, ITAs had to fall. Q3 data will be available in October, so we can see how far the target has been exceeded.

The thing is that we're now drawing from the 2017 target (ITAs in Sep cannot land this year) and the backlog has no effect on the ITAs now being allocated, but ITAs haven't doubled as should have done. The only reasonable explanation I can find for this is that the 2017 target (which for Q4 2016 we can assume to be an extrapolation of 2016 figures) has been reduced because of high landing numbers. Whether or not ITAs will jump in October depends entirely on what target figure they're working with. If Oct draws go up to the 2000 mark as has been suggested, then all's well but if not then it doesn't bode well. 1 week to go.

interesting analysis john,
im waiting to see the mid year report, atleast we will know how many people are ahead of us in the queue in the pool

 

[Sluffy]

PNP and 'Federal Economic—High Skilled' (Includes FSW, CSC, FST) have separate targets, with half of the target of 58k allocated for pre-EE backlog. Also only some PNP programmes use EE, around 15% of the total 48k.

What is the source of around 15%?
Suppose Ontario and other provinces have bigger quotas for EE streams than in 2015 for examples.

And if so, why don't add 15% out of this 48k going through EE?
I'm not arguing, just trying to make it clear.

As it stands, 52k of the 58k Highly Skilled target was met in Q1-2, with 6 months still to go. Due to pre-EE backlog, the Highly Skilled class had to be constrained this year and the average ITA per draw for this year till date stands at 1000. The reason why it fell to the 700s this summer was because they gave out too many ITAs in Jan-March and to maintain a 1000 average, ITAs had to fall. Q3 data will be available in October, so we can see how far the target has been exceeded.

In my ideal world it might be easy

6k left is 3k ITAs in average (if we do not consider the backlog) - 4 rounds of 750 ITAs - July and August roughly. They are likely to be admitted in 2016.
All apllication since September willbe admitted for 2017

 

[ecpradeep1]

what is the expected CRS for October 5th? Any Idea?

 

[Donald Trump]

what is the expected CRS for October 5th? Any Idea?

according to the trend, if ITAs issued are more than 1200-1500 then you may see the score below 481. Good luck...

 

[thestunner316]

according to the trend, if ITAs issued are more than 1200-1500 then you may see the score below 481. Good luck...

my prediction is around 1500 candidates with cutoff score around 478...
thats what my crystal ball says ;D

 

[volodyalysak]

I'm so tired to read those "Ray of Hope " threads every 2 weeks , you read them, build some hope up and than draw day comes and it all starts all over again. Where is mid year report 2016 ?, that would help us be more realistic here.
My prediction is: 1450 ITA with CRS 473, i really don't think there are that many people sitting in 470-480 range as of now.

 

[Dedicated]

i really don't think there are that many people sitting in 470-480 range as of now.

But it was mentioned somewhere in this forum that there are about 3000 applicants with CRS score around 481 piled up in the system since June or something (since then CRS score did not come down).

 

[thestunner316]

But it was mentioned somewhere in this forum that there are about 3000 applicants with CRS score around 481 piled up in the system since June or something (since then CRS score did not come down).

3000 ? seriously ?? lol... without looking at any report i cant say for certain, looks like pure speculation to me.

 

[Dedicated]

3000 ? seriously ?? lol... without looking at any report i cant say for certain, looks like pure speculation to me.

I am referring to this one.

 

[Sluffy]

3000 ? seriously ?? lol... without looking at any report i cant say for certain, looks like pure speculation to me.

Not exactly. Not 3000 with the score 481, but something like that with the range 470-481.


1000 people received ITAs and the score was 470+ before May
750 people received ITAs and the score was 482+ after that

So 250 people in average are entering the pool every two weeks

9 draws in May- August are 250*9 are 2250 people approximately
And add some more for two draws of September - at least 250 each draw or even more.
So there is about 2750 with the score 470-481 in the pool. Or even more
The figure is pretty close

 

[thestunner316]

I am referring to this one.

like i said sweetheart, its speculation

Not exactly. Not 3000 with the score 481, but something like that with the range 470-481.


1000 people received ITAs and the score was 470+ before May
750 people received ITAs and the score was 482+ after that

So 250 people in average are entering the pool every two weeks

9 draws in May- August are 250*9 are 2250 people approximately
And add some more for two draws of September - at least 250 each draw or even more.
So there is about 2750 with the score 470-481 in the pool. Or even more
The figure is pretty close

your figures look a lot more accurate... good analysis

looking forward to next weeks draw... will answer some more burning questions.

 

[Wolverine17]

like i said sweetheart, its speculation

your figures look a lot more accurate... good analysis

looking forward to next weeks draw... will answer some more burning questions.

But does that mean that scores will lower after a few draws?

 

[Sluffy]

But does that mean that scores will lower after a few draws?

The scores will lower if only the draw will be large enough to select those with 481 first.
The size of draw is known to CIC only)