Scores I’ll drop to 460 or even low , prior to FST draw , u I’ll see
Ray of Hope - 138th Draw
- Thread starter 13nitinsharma
- Start date
Just lucky to be at 470 and gotten an ITA. Don't give up guys, wishing the best of luck.
This forum has been helpful and quite supportive as well.
(And for those with low IELTS score, consider applying for a remark on writing...that is what saved me after taking the exam 5 times).
This forum has been helpful and quite supportive as well.
(And for those with low IELTS score, consider applying for a remark on writing...that is what saved me after taking the exam 5 times).
Got ITA today with score 470, file created 5th Jan. So excited and nervsous, I gotta quit my job in Montreal and leave for Ontario. Not ready yet...
Bofore today, my plan B was to prepare ONIP materials since I received letter of interest 15th Jan, almost due...
Bofore today, my plan B was to prepare ONIP materials since I received letter of interest 15th Jan, almost due...
quilleroarg
Star Member
- Jul 15, 2019
- 82
- 68
- Category........
- FSW
- Visa Office......
- Ottawa
- NOC Code......
- 2171
- Pre-Assessed..
- Yes
- App. Filed.......
- 30-03-2020
- AOR Received.
- 31-03-2020
- Passport Req..
- 18-02-2022
- VISA ISSUED...
- 15-03-2022
- LANDED..........
- 06-04-2022
being a statistics professor.. I tried to model the distribution of candidates scores in the pool and it consistently follows exponential distribution with lambda= 0.078~0.079.. this is considering only the candidates above 450 as below 450 distribution is not considered.
with this you can calculate the number of people above you with the formula:
"number of people above a given CRS = (total number of people above 450)* exp^(-lambda*(CRS-450))"
eg: for current situation(crs of 470)
number of people above 470 = (536+21116)* exp^(-0.07785*(470-450)) = 4503.59 .....
for last draw:
number of people above 472 = (439+19861)* exp^(-0.0795*(472-450)) = 3531
n so on....
the value of the lambda varies between 0.0076 to 0.080 from draw to draw.
what it also says that means is,
number of people above me(crs = 468) are = (536+21116)* exp^(-0.0785*(468-450))=~ 5270~5300
out of this, 4500 are above 470 who got invited today. that means there are only 750~800 candidates left in front of me today..
So I hope that less than 3700 new candidates join the pool above 468 in the next 2 weeks... so I could see a bright Ray of Hope...
you just made my day
I got an email saying "Your application status has changes" but then when I check there is are no new messages. What could be going on? Also how do I know I got an ITA? My CRS score is 471.
being a statistics professor
with this you can calculate the number of people above you with the formula:
"number of people above a given CRS = (total number of people above 450)* exp^(-lambda*(CRS-450))"
eg: for current situation(crs of 470)
number of people above 470 = (536+21116)* exp^(-0.07785*(470-450)) = 4503.59 .....
for last draw:
number of people above 472 = (439+19861)* exp^(-0.0795*(472-450)) = 3531
n so on....
the value of the lambda varies between 0.0076 to 0.080 from draw to draw.
what it also says that means is,
number of people above me(crs = 468) are = (536+21116)* exp^(-0.0785*(468-450))=~ 5270~5300
out of this, 4500 are above 470 who got invited today. that means there are only 750~800 candidates left in front of me today..
So I hope that less than 3700 new candidates join the pool above 468 in the next 2 weeks... so I could see a bright Ray of Hope...
I tried to do your math but I failed miserably. lol
If it is not a lot of trouble, could you please breakdown the ranges between 450-470? I mean, how many people there are between 450-455 / 456-460/ 461-465 and so on?
Just got my ITA, my CRS is now 470 from the system, however, I think the system doesn't calculate it right, since it's not until March that I have 3yrs experience and add those 25 extra points. So I guess my only option is to decline this invitation and hope the CRS will not shoot up the next time