Ray of Hope - 138th Draw
- Thread starter 13nitinsharma
- Start date
rajapanesar
Champion Member
- Jan 31, 2019
- 562
- 36
- Category........
- FSW
- NOC Code......
- 1241
- App. Filed.......
- 19/09/2019
Yeah.. i am at 475. Me too didn't receive an invite.. is it normal?
Please wait 24 hours and you will get ITA.Congrats to all who received ITA!
21k plus people between 451-600. This is insane..
This is a huge wake up call for everyone!! The number of candidates in the pool are climbing at an alarming rate and magically many are able to score above 470 too!!
Honestly if we all knew yesterday the draw size is going to be 4500 most people over here would be distributing Ray of hope at 467+. Nobody would have expected 21k people in the 451-600 bracket.
Pnp's are actually stable and not a huge contributor to be honest, it's just that the pool size is increasing and candidates are able to score above 470. It's indeed survival of the fittest now.. Do everything under the sun now people.. crack the dam score and go to Canada else work on your respective plan B.
This is a huge wake up call for everyone!! The number of candidates in the pool are climbing at an alarming rate and magically many are able to score above 470 too!!
Honestly if we all knew yesterday the draw size is going to be 4500 most people over here would be distributing Ray of hope at 467+. Nobody would have expected 21k people in the 451-600 bracket.
Pnp's are actually stable and not a huge contributor to be honest, it's just that the pool size is increasing and candidates are able to score above 470. It's indeed survival of the fittest now.. Do everything under the sun now people.. crack the dam score and go to Canada else work on your respective plan B.
being a statistics professor 
.. I tried to model the distribution of candidates scores in the pool and it consistently follows exponential distribution with lambda= 0.078~0.079.. this is considering only the candidates above 450 as below 450 distribution is not considered.
with this you can calculate the number of people above you with the formula:
"number of people above a given CRS = (total number of people above 450)* exp^(-lambda*(CRS-450))"
eg: for current situation(crs of 470)
number of people above 470 = (536+21116)* exp^(-0.07785*(470-450)) = 4503.59 .....
for last draw:
number of people above 472 = (439+19861)* exp^(-0.0795*(472-450)) = 3531
n so on....
the value of the lambda varies between 0.0076 to 0.080 from draw to draw.
what it also says that means is,
number of people above me(crs = 468) are = (536+21116)* exp^(-0.0785*(468-450))=~ 5270~5300
out of this, 4500 are above 470 who got invited today. that means there are only 750~800 candidates left in front of me today..
So I hope that less than 3700 new candidates join the pool above 468 in the next 2 weeks... so I could see a bright Ray of Hope...
.. I tried to model the distribution of candidates scores in the pool and it consistently follows exponential distribution with lambda= 0.078~0.079.. this is considering only the candidates above 450 as below 450 distribution is not considered.with this you can calculate the number of people above you with the formula:
"number of people above a given CRS = (total number of people above 450)* exp^(-lambda*(CRS-450))"
eg: for current situation(crs of 470)
number of people above 470 = (536+21116)* exp^(-0.07785*(470-450)) = 4503.59 .....
for last draw:
number of people above 472 = (439+19861)* exp^(-0.0795*(472-450)) = 3531
n so on....
the value of the lambda varies between 0.0076 to 0.080 from draw to draw.
what it also says that means is,
number of people above me(crs = 468) are = (536+21116)* exp^(-0.0785*(468-450))=~ 5270~5300
out of this, 4500 are above 470 who got invited today. that means there are only 750~800 candidates left in front of me today..
So I hope that less than 3700 new candidates join the pool above 468 in the next 2 weeks... so I could see a bright Ray of Hope...
Last edited:
I’m stupid as a door and didn’t understand a thing but I trust your knowledge and am hopeful now too (I’m also at 468)being a statistics professor
with this you can calculate the number of people above you with the formula:
"number of people above a given CRS = (total number of people above 450)* exp^(-0.0785*(CRS-450))"
eg: for current situation(crs of 470)
number of people above 470 = (536+21116)* exp^(-0.0785*(470-450)) = 4503.59 .....
for last draw:
number of people above 472 = (439+19861)* exp^(-0.0795*(472-450)) = 3531
n so on....
the value of the lambda varies between 0.0076 to 0.080 from draw to draw.
what it also says that means is,
number of people above me(crs = 468) are = (536+21116)* exp^(-0.0785*(468-450))=~ 5270~5300
out of this, 4500 are above 470 who got invited today. that means there are only 750~800 candidates left in front of me today..
So I hope that less than 3700 new candidates join the pool above 468 in the next 2 weeks... so I could see a bright Ray of Hope...