Ray of Hope - 136th Draw

[zee90999]

I wish I can see 469 or below in next draw. Large population are in between 464 to 470.

We probably feel large numbers of 464 to 470 have entered the pool because they’re more active on forums like these. This is because they’re on the borderline and actively discussing to get as much information as possible.

People below 464 are aware that they don’t have a chance in the next few draws thus they’re just observing.

People above 470 have little to wait and are aware that it’s their turn in the upcoming draws, thus they’re less active as well.

It’s difficult to know the breakup of people in the pool with scores between 451 - 600.

 

[Wrath]

Well, tbh we have good chance until 1st FST draw which usually happens in may months if u see from the beginning of EE if am not wrong. After 1st fst draw am pretty sure cut offs will be flying above 475.

 

[Wrath]

We probably feel large numbers of 464 to 470 have entered the pool because they’re more active on forums like these. This is because they’re on the borderline and actively discussing to get as much information as possible.

People below 464 are aware that they don’t have a chance in the next few draws thus they’re just observing.

People above 470 have little to wait and are aware that it’s their turn in the upcoming draws, thus they’re less active as well.

It’s difficult to know the breakup of people in the pool with scores between 451 - 600.

That is true actually.

 

[NvzooTor]

They actually use the cutoff from the draw in which you got the ITA, not the most recent cutoff. So in your example, if you got the ITA when cutoff was 470 you will be alright. If you got the ITA when cutoff was 474 you application will be denied.

This is exactly what I am saying)

 

[asksharelearn]

Even if there is an FST in april/may, couldn't it be possible that the cic plans to just play with the tie breaker and keep the cut-off reasonable and possibly bring the cut-off's down subsequently?

something like very short tie-breakers for lower cut-offs?

I just get this feeling since the last draw had a very unusual tie-breaker. It was almost like cic was cleaning out the pool of people above 471.

I know this must sound too optimistic, but just a thought.

 

[leblord]

I'm at 469, will lose 5 points in June, and I'm super nervous I might not be able to get an ITA on time!
People seem to forget that we'll probably get a FSW draw around March/April, and after that, there's a reasonable chance of draws approaching 480. Try everything that you can to build a longterm plan to overcome the age factor. I'm studying french, with the goal to get CLB7 within the next 6 months, so that I can claim 12 extra points. That's the only way for me to continue in the pool with a competitive score.
My boyfriend is also doing an online postgraduate program to also improve our overall score.

I think you ll get your ita before february end you have a chance on 5 february but a great chance on feb 22 ,i dont think cut off will go up to 480 , its very hard to get to 480 , i think score will continu to remain between 465 and 475

 

[jrossi]

Are you learning french from scratch?

I did study french while I was in university, between 2008 and 2010. At that time, I believe I achieved a B1- level, but after that, I never studied french again. So, I can't say I'm starting from scratch, I certainly remember the meaning of the top 200 most used words, but things such as Verbs conjugations and prepositions were completely vanished from my memory. Also, a benefit that I have is the fact that french has a many similarities with Portuguese, which is my native language. I wouldn't say it's an exaggeration to state that I could achieve a CLB5 in reading with 1 month or so of study, simply because there are many words that are very similar.

 

[jrossi]

It’s a smart move that you have started learning French.

Who knows,wednesday’s draw might come to 469.

#keeppushing

Thank you!
Since I just entered the pool on January 27th, I'm not very hopeful if the cutoff comes at 469; I'll probably won't make it to the tie-brake date.
I think there's hope for the second draw of February, if the influx of new candidates starts to slowdown a little bit and the number of ITAs increases to 3600-3900.
The only thing I'm sure is that once a FSW happens, the chances for me will be over, until I get the additional French points. If we look at the graph evolution of the cutoff during 2019, there's a *very* solid trend: every time a FSW draw happens, the cutoff increases and sets a new standard for following draws, then a few months later, a new FSW draw happens, and increases the cutoff again. It's a cycle that I bet will be repeated again around March/April.

 

[jrossi]

I think you ll get your ita before february end you have a chance on 5 february but a great chance on feb 22 ,i dont think cut off will go up to 480 , its very hard to get to 480 , i think score will continu to remain between 465 and 475

Yeah, I think there's a reasonable chance for February 19th... It's possible, but I'm not holding my breath. Also, since we didn't saw a B2B draw in January, and having a B2B at the beginning of the year has been pretty much a tradition, I don't think it's impossible for it to happen in February. If a B2B happens, then I believe I'll stand a chance.

 

[Nimrat25]

Thank you!
Since I just entered the pool on January 27th, I'm not very hopeful if the cutoff comes at 469; I'll probably won't make it to the tie-brake date.
I think there's hope for the second draw of February, if the influx of new candidates starts to slowdown a little bit and the number of ITAs increases to 3600-3900.
The only thing I'm sure is that once a FSW happens, the chances for me will be over, until I get the additional French points. If we look at the graph evolution of the cutoff during 2019, there's a *very* solid trend: every time a FSW draw happens, the cutoff increases and sets a new standard for following draws, then a few months later, a new FSW draw happens, and increases the cutoff again. It's a cycle that I bet will be repeated again around March/April.

Pardon me(new here!), what is the difference between a FSW draw and the regular Express Entry draw? Are the 2 different? I was of the view that FSW, FST are all part of Express Entry pool!

 

[jrossi]

Pardon me(new here!), what is the difference between a FSW draw and the regular Express Entry draw? Are the 2 different? I was of the view that FSW, FST are all part of Express Entry pool!

Usually twice a year the draw is dedicated exclusively to FSW candidates only, and these draws invite no more than 500-700 people. So, when a FSW draw happens, the pool of "actual" candidates doesn't change for an entire period of 4 weeks, and this makes the cutoff jump, usually, around 10 points.

 

[Nimrat25]

Usually twice a year the draw is dedicated exclusively to FSW candidates only, and these draws invite no more than 500-700 people. So, when a FSW draw happens, the pool of "actual" candidates doesn't change for an entire period of 4 weeks, and this makes the cutoff jump, usually, around 10 points.

Ahh, got you. Thanks for the reply jrossi!

 

[omersalam]

Hi guys
Do WES have different processing times for different countries. My US degree was assessed in 10-15 days once the uni sent the documents.
My wife has a bachelors from Pakistan. I have read about longer processing times from India on this forum.
Can anyone please shed some light.
Thanks

 

[cybertruck]

Hi guys
Do WES have different processing times for different countries. My US degree was assessed in 10-15 days once the uni sent the documents.
My wife has a bachelors from Pakistan. I have read about longer processing times from India on this forum.
Can anyone please shed some light.
Thanks

correct, Indian university degrees are evaluated with additional verification between WES & university even after sealed transcripts. i know this is strange!

 

[seadrag0n]

I did study french while I was in university, between 2008 and 2010. At that time, I believe I achieved a B1- level, but after that, I never studied french again. So, I can't say I'm starting from scratch, I certainly remember the meaning of the top 200 most used words, but things such as Verbs conjugations and prepositions were completely vanished from my memory. Also, a benefit that I have is the fact that french has a many similarities with Portuguese, which is my native language. I wouldn't say it's an exaggeration to state that I could achieve a CLB5 in reading with 1 month or so of study, simply because there are many words that are very similar.

You have good exposure to French! I'm not exactly sure but I think getting CLB5 fetches 1 CRS for each module of TEF so you have a chance of increasing your score by 4 points, better to check this first.

I'm also at 469, if the draw size increases from the next draw onward, we might have a chance to get through, hoping and praying for this to happen.