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Ray of Hope - 136th Draw

zee90999

Hero Member
Dec 24, 2019
301
203
I wish I can see 469 or below in next draw. Large population are in between 464 to 470.
We probably feel large numbers of 464 to 470 have entered the pool because they’re more active on forums like these. This is because they’re on the borderline and actively discussing to get as much information as possible.

People below 464 are aware that they don’t have a chance in the next few draws thus they’re just observing.

People above 470 have little to wait and are aware that it’s their turn in the upcoming draws, thus they’re less active as well.

It’s difficult to know the breakup of people in the pool with scores between 451 - 600.
 
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Wrath

Hero Member
Nov 3, 2019
381
159
Toronto
Category........
CEC
Well, tbh we have good chance until 1st FST draw which usually happens in may months if u see from the beginning of EE if am not wrong. After 1st fst draw am pretty sure cut offs will be flying above 475.
 
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Wrath

Hero Member
Nov 3, 2019
381
159
Toronto
Category........
CEC
We probably feel large numbers of 464 to 470 have entered the pool because they’re more active on forums like these. This is because they’re on the borderline and actively discussing to get as much information as possible.

People below 464 are aware that they don’t have a chance in the next few draws thus they’re just observing.

People above 470 have little to wait and are aware that it’s their turn in the upcoming draws, thus they’re less active as well.

It’s difficult to know the breakup of people in the pool with scores between 451 - 600.
That is true actually.
 
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NvzooTor

Full Member
May 30, 2019
31
34
35
Toronto
Category........
CEC
Visa Office......
Edmonton
NOC Code......
1225
App. Filed.......
16-04-2019
AOR Received.
June 1, 2019
Med's Done....
July 10, 2109
Passport Req..
December 6, 2019
LANDED..........
January 17, 2020
They actually use the cutoff from the draw in which you got the ITA, not the most recent cutoff. So in your example, if you got the ITA when cutoff was 470 you will be alright. If you got the ITA when cutoff was 474 you application will be denied.
This is exactly what I am saying)
 

asksharelearn

Star Member
Jan 25, 2020
52
55
Even if there is an FST in april/may, couldn't it be possible that the cic plans to just play with the tie breaker and keep the cut-off reasonable and possibly bring the cut-off's down subsequently?

something like very short tie-breakers for lower cut-offs?

I just get this feeling since the last draw had a very unusual tie-breaker. It was almost like cic was cleaning out the pool of people above 471.

I know this must sound too optimistic, but just a thought.
 

leblord

Star Member
May 23, 2019
129
46
I'm at 469, will lose 5 points in June, and I'm super nervous I might not be able to get an ITA on time!
People seem to forget that we'll probably get a FSW draw around March/April, and after that, there's a reasonable chance of draws approaching 480. Try everything that you can to build a longterm plan to overcome the age factor. I'm studying french, with the goal to get CLB7 within the next 6 months, so that I can claim 12 extra points. That's the only way for me to continue in the pool with a competitive score.
My boyfriend is also doing an online postgraduate program to also improve our overall score.
I think you ll get your ita before february end you have a chance on 5 february but a great chance on feb 22 ,i dont think cut off will go up to 480 , its very hard to get to 480 , i think score will continu to remain between 465 and 475
 
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jrossi

Hero Member
Jan 13, 2020
506
699
Are you learning french from scratch?
I did study french while I was in university, between 2008 and 2010. At that time, I believe I achieved a B1- level, but after that, I never studied french again. So, I can't say I'm starting from scratch, I certainly remember the meaning of the top 200 most used words, but things such as Verbs conjugations and prepositions were completely vanished from my memory. Also, a benefit that I have is the fact that french has a many similarities with Portuguese, which is my native language. I wouldn't say it's an exaggeration to state that I could achieve a CLB5 in reading with 1 month or so of study, simply because there are many words that are very similar.
 
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jrossi

Hero Member
Jan 13, 2020
506
699
It’s a smart move that you have started learning French.

Who knows,wednesday’s draw might come to 469.

#keeppushing
Thank you!
Since I just entered the pool on January 27th, I'm not very hopeful if the cutoff comes at 469; I'll probably won't make it to the tie-brake date.
I think there's hope for the second draw of February, if the influx of new candidates starts to slowdown a little bit and the number of ITAs increases to 3600-3900.
The only thing I'm sure is that once a FSW happens, the chances for me will be over, until I get the additional French points. If we look at the graph evolution of the cutoff during 2019, there's a *very* solid trend: every time a FSW draw happens, the cutoff increases and sets a new standard for following draws, then a few months later, a new FSW draw happens, and increases the cutoff again. It's a cycle that I bet will be repeated again around March/April.
 

jrossi

Hero Member
Jan 13, 2020
506
699
I think you ll get your ita before february end you have a chance on 5 february but a great chance on feb 22 ,i dont think cut off will go up to 480 , its very hard to get to 480 , i think score will continu to remain between 465 and 475
Yeah, I think there's a reasonable chance for February 19th... It's possible, but I'm not holding my breath. Also, since we didn't saw a B2B draw in January, and having a B2B at the beginning of the year has been pretty much a tradition, I don't think it's impossible for it to happen in February. If a B2B happens, then I believe I'll stand a chance.
 

Nimrat25

Member
Jan 22, 2020
17
3
Thank you!
Since I just entered the pool on January 27th, I'm not very hopeful if the cutoff comes at 469; I'll probably won't make it to the tie-brake date.
I think there's hope for the second draw of February, if the influx of new candidates starts to slowdown a little bit and the number of ITAs increases to 3600-3900.
The only thing I'm sure is that once a FSW happens, the chances for me will be over, until I get the additional French points. If we look at the graph evolution of the cutoff during 2019, there's a *very* solid trend: every time a FSW draw happens, the cutoff increases and sets a new standard for following draws, then a few months later, a new FSW draw happens, and increases the cutoff again. It's a cycle that I bet will be repeated again around March/April.
Pardon me(new here!), what is the difference between a FSW draw and the regular Express Entry draw? Are the 2 different? I was of the view that FSW, FST are all part of Express Entry pool!
 

jrossi

Hero Member
Jan 13, 2020
506
699
Pardon me(new here!), what is the difference between a FSW draw and the regular Express Entry draw? Are the 2 different? I was of the view that FSW, FST are all part of Express Entry pool!
Usually twice a year the draw is dedicated exclusively to FSW candidates only, and these draws invite no more than 500-700 people. So, when a FSW draw happens, the pool of "actual" candidates doesn't change for an entire period of 4 weeks, and this makes the cutoff jump, usually, around 10 points.
 
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Nimrat25

Member
Jan 22, 2020
17
3
Usually twice a year the draw is dedicated exclusively to FSW candidates only, and these draws invite no more than 500-700 people. So, when a FSW draw happens, the pool of "actual" candidates doesn't change for an entire period of 4 weeks, and this makes the cutoff jump, usually, around 10 points.
Ahh, got you. Thanks for the reply jrossi!
 
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omersalam

Member
Nov 14, 2019
10
13
Hi guys
Do WES have different processing times for different countries. My US degree was assessed in 10-15 days once the uni sent the documents.
My wife has a bachelors from Pakistan. I have read about longer processing times from India on this forum.
Can anyone please shed some light.
Thanks
 

cybertruck

Hero Member
Jan 6, 2020
528
119
Hi guys
Do WES have different processing times for different countries. My US degree was assessed in 10-15 days once the uni sent the documents.
My wife has a bachelors from Pakistan. I have read about longer processing times from India on this forum.
Can anyone please shed some light.
Thanks
correct, Indian university degrees are evaluated with additional verification between WES & university even after sealed transcripts. i know this is strange!
 

seadrag0n

Champion Member
Mar 6, 2018
2,785
2,491
I did study french while I was in university, between 2008 and 2010. At that time, I believe I achieved a B1- level, but after that, I never studied french again. So, I can't say I'm starting from scratch, I certainly remember the meaning of the top 200 most used words, but things such as Verbs conjugations and prepositions were completely vanished from my memory. Also, a benefit that I have is the fact that french has a many similarities with Portuguese, which is my native language. I wouldn't say it's an exaggeration to state that I could achieve a CLB5 in reading with 1 month or so of study, simply because there are many words that are very similar.
You have good exposure to French! I'm not exactly sure but I think getting CLB5 fetches 1 CRS for each module of TEF so you have a chance of increasing your score by 4 points, better to check this first.

I'm also at 469, if the draw size increases from the next draw onward, we might have a chance to get through, hoping and praying for this to happen.
 
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