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Ray of Hope - 134th Draw

Ujaved21

Full Member
Nov 22, 2019
23
7
Appreciate if anyone can advise.

If there is a tie breaker, when does CIC consider your application from. From the day you submitted the application or the day you made a change to the profile (date of minimum entry criteria met)?

Thanks in advance
 

indpnv

Hero Member
Mar 16, 2018
744
337
United States
Appreciate if anyone can advise.

If there is a tie breaker, when does CIC consider your application from. From the day you submitted the application or the day you made a change to the profile (date of minimum entry criteria met)?

Thanks in advance
By "submitted the application" - if you mean creation of the profile, yes that's the one considered for the tie breaker.
 

Landrover88

Full Member
Feb 23, 2019
35
8
You guys really need to make data-driven assumptions instead of blind optimism.
This was the distribution on 12/11 before the draw:
CRS 600+: 715
CRS 451-460: 15917
So after the draw:
CRS 600+: 0
CRS 472-600: ~=0
CRS 451-471: 13432
Here the average density is 671 people per score.
Actually the density of 469-471 should be much lower than 451-471, lets assume it is 500.

Between 12/11 and 12/19, 3234 people has joined the pool, then 3200 people were selected. Cutline was 469.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

It means with in 8 days, 3200-3*500 = 1700 people joined the pool with CRS 469+.
And there will be 19 days between 12/19 and 1/8.
1700/8*19 = 4037 people will join the pool with CRS 469+.

So the cutline of 1/8 will be 472 minimum. Period.
I’m afraid while your approach is correct, your data calculation method is incorrect.

Like I previously mentioned, the CRS score breakup which is mentioned on IRCC is before handing out the ITAS on Dec 11. Hence the real numbers of candidates in 451-600 POST ITA = 12717 {15917 – 3200}

The same number, on Dec 19 is 13206 {16226 – 3200}

So the real increase in candidates from Dec 11 -18 should be = 309

But anyways, no-one knows the accurate data. And the more important question is how much CRS would drop in Feb-March after back to back draws
 
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XSY_ghostlike

Star Member
Nov 2, 2019
55
33
I’m afraid while your approach is correct, your data calculation method is incorrect.

Like I previously mentioned, the CRS score breakup which is mentioned on IRCC is before handing out the ITAS on Dec 11. Hence the real numbers of candidates in 451-600 POST ITA = 12717 {15917 – 3200}

The same number, on Dec 19 is 13206 {16226 – 3200}

So the real increase in candidates from Dec 11 -18 should be = 309
The increase in pool size is 309 from 12/11 from 12/19, and there was a draw of 3200 happened in between. So tell me, how many people has joined the pool within this time interval? :D
 
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Landrover88

Full Member
Feb 23, 2019
35
8
The increase in pool size is 309 from 12/11 from 12/19, and there was a draw of 3200 happened in between. So tell me, how many people has joined the pool within this time interval? :D
You already answered that. 309. Is it that difficult for you to absorb this?
We are talking about new people joining the pool, and that has considerably reduced [300 per week], compared to [1250 per week in October]. And yes, it is COMMON SENSE that pool size is what matters. 80% of people in pool are currently below 465. And 3200 ITAs were given FROM THE POOL SIZE!
So less people joining means that less chances of CRS shooting up. I wonder where you perform your "DATA DRIVEN ANALYSIS" from, but the most certain thing is :
A. PEOPLE GETS ITAs FROM THE POOL
B. MORE THAN 80% PEOPLE IN THE POOL ARE BELOW 465
Make sense?
 

XSY_ghostlike

Star Member
Nov 2, 2019
55
33
You already answered that. 309. Is it that difficult for you to absorb this?
We are talking about new people joining the pool, and that has considerably reduced [300 per week], compared to [1250 per week in October]. And yes, it is COMMON SENSE that pool size is what matters. 80% of people in pool are currently below 465. And 3200 ITAs were given FROM THE POOL SIZE!
So less people joining means that less chances of CRS shooting up. I wonder where you perform your "DATA DRIVEN ANALYSIS" from, but the most certain thing is :
A. PEOPLE GETS ITAs FROM THE POOL
B. MORE THAN 80% PEOPLE IN THE POOL ARE BELOW 465
Make sense?
LOL man, ok.
I wont reply you again, but let me summerize a simple point for one last time:
pool size increased by 309 from 12/11 to 12/19, and there was a draw of 3200 happened in between. It means 3500 people entered the pool and 3200 people were DRAWN. Thats why the increase is 300.
And here is the question. How many people within these 3500 have CRS more than 469? please refer to my initial post.

Man, if there are more than 3200 people entering pool with CRS 469+ within every interval, CRS 465 will NEVER get selected regardless of pool size, or 99% people below 465, none of these matters.

GET IT?
 
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Wrath

Hero Member
Nov 3, 2019
381
159
Toronto
Category........
CEC
Hi guys I need your help here. Am an inland applicant having score of 468. I worked as a supervisor in a restaurant for a year but now I quit that work. I have a new job offer from different restaurant as a supervisor where the owner said he can provide me LMIA. Also my PGWP expires in 1st week of may. So if I get this LMIA can I extend my PGWP? Is this even possible if not how can I extend my PGWP? Thank you
 

karam2233

Star Member
Apr 25, 2018
81
27
You already answered that. 309. Is it that difficult for you to absorb this?
We are talking about new people joining the pool, and that has considerably reduced [300 per week], compared to [1250 per week in October]. And yes, it is COMMON SENSE that pool size is what matters. 80% of people in pool are currently below 465. And 3200 ITAs were given FROM THE POOL SIZE!
So less people joining means that less chances of CRS shooting up. I wonder where you perform your "DATA DRIVEN ANALYSIS" from, but the most certain thing is :
A. PEOPLE GETS ITAs FROM THE POOL
B. MORE THAN 80% PEOPLE IN THE POOL ARE BELOW 465
Make sense?
The dude was asking about how many people joined the pool in that time interval, and the answer is not 309. 309 is the growth rate over a fixed interval of time, which he already wrote and it's perfectly correct. What you said about 300 people joining the pool per week is wrong. So with all do respect, your post does not make sense.
 
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chemistesa

Star Member
Feb 10, 2017
185
88
Fake profiles with fake ielts and ECA reports are created artificially. The scores go up, people take more Ielts, Ielts centers make more money. How can CIC stop them?
 

tony87

Star Member
Aug 9, 2019
162
95
Fake profiles with fake ielts and ECA reports are created artificially. The scores go up, people take more Ielts, Ielts centers make more money. How can CIC stop them?
Well, this really sounds like a conspiracy theory. We should just admit Canada is the only choice for the majority of people if they want to immigrate to a developed English-speaking country so it's no wonder the score gets higher and higher.
 

aonanuga002

Star Member
Nov 22, 2019
119
48
Well, this really sounds like a conspiracy theory. We should just admit Canada is the only choice for the majority of people if they want to immigrate to a developed English-speaking country so it's no wonder the score gets higher and higher.
Yop , it is a conspiracy theory.
 

Jazzpanag

Star Member
Jul 7, 2019
186
44
NOC Code......
1241
AOR Received.
10 May'22
IELTS Request
L-8,R-8,S-7.5,W-7.5
Passport Req..
25th May'22
I dont think number of new applications will increase massively as WES and other agencies will also be closed for the festive period. But I do think the cut off will be 470+.

Hoping it comes down to 464 before july 2020

I AM ALSO HOPING FOR THE SAME BEFORE JULY'20- WILL LOOSE 5 POINT AFTER JULY
 

Jazzpanag

Star Member
Jul 7, 2019
186
44
NOC Code......
1241
AOR Received.
10 May'22
IELTS Request
L-8,R-8,S-7.5,W-7.5
Passport Req..
25th May'22
i am stuck at 464. Will lose 5 point on 12th Feb. Missed the 464 (2nd Oct Draw) due to my own fault. Still regretting my doing the day before. I updated my WES as masters on 30 Sept but the score didn't updated after waiting more then one hour. As we all were expecting a draw on 2nd Oct. and the updated score is not showing i decided to create a new profile and dump my previous profile. After dumping my profile when i was creating the new one i got the mail that the update is done. but the profile is no longer usable. And the day came on 2nd Oct. Draw occurred with cutoff till 20nd Sept. So i didn't get the ITA that day. Now waiting hopelessly. I don't know what will happen next. as i spent too much time in this. Now thinking of Australia. Already started processing for the Rural Program. I do wonder for those people who are trying for masters equivalency and CLB 9 and do not know the draw score trend as i believe if u don't see your your score 470 and above there is no hope in near future. As the following is coming in upcoming years 3 weeks draw gap, FST draw, PNP 600 points candidates (increasing), 1 May when the Canadian degree holder graduated.. So in 2020 there is no hope for below 470 it seems.
lOOKS LIKE YOU HAVE DONE ALOT OF RESEARCH

CURRENT CRS 465-IS THERE ANY RAY OF HOPE BEFORE JULY
 

Jazzpanag

Star Member
Jul 7, 2019
186
44
NOC Code......
1241
AOR Received.
10 May'22
IELTS Request
L-8,R-8,S-7.5,W-7.5
Passport Req..
25th May'22
i am stuck at 464. Will lose 5 point on 12th Feb. Missed the 464 (2nd Oct Draw) due to my own fault. Still regretting my doing the day before. I updated my WES as masters on 30 Sept but the score didn't updated after waiting more then one hour. As we all were expecting a draw on 2nd Oct. and the updated score is not showing i decided to create a new profile and dump my previous profile. After dumping my profile when i was creating the new one i got the mail that the update is done. but the profile is no longer usable. And the day came on 2nd Oct. Draw occurred with cutoff till 20nd Sept. So i didn't get the ITA that day. Now waiting hopelessly. I don't know what will happen next. as i spent too much time in this. Now thinking of Australia. Already started processing for the Rural Program. I do wonder for those people who are trying for masters equivalency and CLB 9 and do not know the draw score trend as i believe if u don't see your your score 470 and above there is no hope in near future. As the following is coming in upcoming years 3 weeks draw gap, FST draw, PNP 600 points candidates (increasing), 1 May when the Canadian degree holder graduated.. So in 2020 there is no hope for below 470 it seems.
ALSO I AM LOOKING FOR MASTER EQUIVALENCY--