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Ray of Hope - 130th Draw

U

umayash

Hero Member
Oct 25, 2019
205
38
haris_rasheed said:
Guys i have a question regarding proof of funds.

CIC says that the funds should be in your account at the time when you submit the profile and at the time when we give you the PR visa. Does this mean that once we submit the EAPR then we can use that money somewhere else or do we have to keep that money in the bank untill we get the PPR?
Click to expand...
... Once your GIC money i.e. funds are shown and okeyed , and u receive letter for submitting your papers n passport for further visa process, you can use that money, wch u have shown.
 
U

umayash

Hero Member
Oct 25, 2019
205
38
Dheana90 said:
If there is a draw next week then the cut off score would be:


After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 475, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -1,520)
451-600 =12,009(14,389-2,380)
441-450= 9,120

Note: As cut off was 475, it means that the 12,009 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-475 only.

475 score = 28
471-474= 344people/score
465-470=189people/score
451-464= 675 (486+189)people/score


CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 8, 2019
CRS score:
601-1,200 =757
451-600 =14,180
441-450 =9,060


It means in 9 days from Oct 30th to Nov 8th, there where:
601-1,200 = 84 profile/day (757/9days)

451-600 = 241prof/day (14,180-12,009= 2,171/9days)

441-450 = 9,060-9,120= -60. For this eange we gonna use previous number which is 15profiles per day.


So, by 13th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,177(757+420(84x5days))
451-600=15,385(14,180+1,205(241x5d)
441-450= 9,135(9,060+75(15x5days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,376profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,376/31=109profile/score


After 13th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 472, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,177)
451-600 =12,962(15,385-2,423)
441-450= 9,135

Note: As cut off was 472, it means that the 12,962 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-4672 only.

472 score = 273
465-471=298(189+109)people/score
451-464= 784(675+109)people/score

So, by 20th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=588(84x7days)
451-600=14,649(12,962+1,687(241x7d)
441-450= 9,240(9,135+105(15x7days))

Suppose that from the newly added 1,687 profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,687/31=55profile/score

With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 465-467
3,600 minus:
-588(601-1200)
-55 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-55 (of 480 newly added score)
-55 (of 479 newly added score)
-55 (of 478 newly added score)
-55 (of 477 newly added score)
-55 (of 476 newly added score)
-55 (of 475 newly added score)
-55 (of 474 newly added score)
-55 (of 473 newly added score)
-273(of 472 left after 13th Nov draw)
-55 (of 472 newly added score)
-298(of 471 left after 13th Nov draw)
-55 (of 471 newly added score)
-298(of 470 left after 13th Nov draw)
-55 (of 470 newly added score)
-298 of (469 left after 13th Nov draw)
-55 (of 469 newly added score)
-298 of (468 left after 13th Nov draw)
-55 (of 468 newly added score)
-298 of (467 left after 13th Nov draw)
-55 (of 467 newly added score)
-298 of (466 left after 13th Nov draw)
-55 (of 466 newly added score)
-71 (298 of 465 left after 13th Nov draw).
Click to expand...
still confused .... can u tell when 465 crs will match, in the coming draws
 
U

umayash

Hero Member
Oct 25, 2019
205
38
Dheana90 said:
Hi dear, my calculation is only for the expected next draw which is 27th Nov. For further draw, I need newest CRS data closer to the draw dates. But I believe that CRS will keep going down. Doesn't matter how long it takes, the score will reach 460 eventually.
Click to expand...
DEar, thanks for your calculation. Can u tell something abt 465
 
Dheana90

Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6332
umayash said:
still confused .... can u tell when 465 crs will match, in the coming draws
Click to expand...
Hi dear,

If IRCC doesn't skip anymore draws and if the current trend continues, the CRS cut off should reach 464 in the 18th December draw . Please see my calculation below:

After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 475, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -1,520)
451-600 =12,009(14,389-2,380)
441-450= 9,120

Note: As cut off was 475, it means that the 12,009 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-475 only.

475 score = 28
471-474= 344people/score
465-470=189people/score
451-464= 675 (486+189)people/score


CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 8, 2019
CRS score:
601-1,200 =757
451-600 =14,180
441-450 =9,060


It means in 9 days from Oct 30th to Nov 8th, there where:
601-1,200 = 84 profile/day (757/9days)

451-600 = 241prof/day (14,180-12,009= 2,171/9days)

441-450 = 9,060-9,120= -60. For this eange we gonna use previous number which is 15profiles per day.


So, by 13th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,177(757+420(84x5days))
451-600=15,385(14,180+1,205(241x5d)
441-450= 9,135(9,060+75(15x5days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,376profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,376/31=109profile/score


After 13th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 472, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,177)
451-600 =12,962(15,385-2,423)
441-450= 9,135

Note: As cut off was 472, it means that the 12,962 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-4672 only.

472 score = 273
465-471=298(189+109)people/score
451-464= 784(675+109)people/score

So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1176(84x14days)
451-600=16,336(12,962+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,345(9,135+210(15x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score

With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 469-471
3,600 minus:
-1,176(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109 (of 480 newly added score)
-109 (of 479 newly added score)
-109 (of 478 newly added score)
-109 (of 477 newly added score)
-109 (of 476 newly added score)
-109 (of 475 newly added score)
-109 (of 474 newly added score)
-109 (of 473 newly added score)
-273(of 472 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 472 newly added score)
-298(of 471 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 471 newly added score)
-298(of 470 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 470 newly added score)
-247(of 298 of 469 left after 13th Nov draw).

After 27th November draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 469, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,176)
451-600 =13,912(16,336-2,424)
441-450= 9,345

Note: As cut off was 469, it means that the 13,912 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-469 only.

469 score = 160(51+109)
465-468=407(298+109)people/score
451-464= 893(784+109)people/score


So, by 11th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1176(84x14days)
451-600=17,286(13,912+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,555(9,345+210(15x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 27th Nov to 11th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score

With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 467-469
3,600 minus:
-1,176(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109 (of 480 newly added score)
-109 (of 479 newly added score)
-109 (of 478 newly added score)
-109 (of 477 newly added score)
-109 (of 476 newly added score)
-109 (of 475 newly added score)
-109 (of 474 newly added score)
-109 (of 473 newly added score)
-109 (of 472 newly added score)
-109 (of 471 newly added score)
-109 (of 470 newly added score)
-160 (of 469 left after 27th Nov draw)
-109 (of 469 newly added score)
-407 (of 468 left after 27th Nov draw)
-109 (of 468 newly added score)
-331 (407 of 467 left after 27th Nov draw)


After 11th December draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 467, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,176)
451-600 =14,862(17,286-3,374)
441-450= 9,555

Note: As cut off was 467, it means that the 14,862 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-467 only.

467 score =76 (407-331)
465-466=516(407+109)people/score
451-464= 1,002(893+109)people/score

So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=588(84x7days)
451-600=16,549(14,862+1,687(241x7d)
441-450= 9,630(9,555+75(15x7days))

Suppose that from the newly added 1,687 profile from 11th Dec to 18th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,687/31=55profile/score

With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 464-466
3,600 minus:
-588(601-1200)
-55 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-55 (of 480 newly added score)
-55 (of 479 newly added score)
-55 (of 478 newly added score)
-55 (of 477 newly added score)
-55 (of 476 newly added score)
-55 (of 475 newly added score)
-55 (of 474 newly added score)
-55 (of 473 newly added score)
-55 (of 472 newly added score)
-55 (of 471 newly added score)
-55 (of 470 newly added score)
-55 (of 469 newly added score)
-55 (of 468 newly added score)
-76 (of 467 left after 11th Dec draw)
-55 (of 467 newly added score)
-516 (of 466 left after 11th Dec draw)
-55 (of 466 newly added score)
-516 (of 465 left after 11th Dec draw)
-55 (of 465 newly added score)
-969 (of 1,002 of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)





 
U

umayash

Hero Member
Oct 25, 2019
205
38
Dheana90 said:
Hi dear,

If IRCC doesn't skip anymore draws and if the current trend continues, the CRS cut off should reach 464 in the 18th December draw . Please see my calculation below:

After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 475, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -1,520)
451-600 =12,009(14,389-2,380)
441-450= 9,120

Note: As cut off was 475, it means that the 12,009 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-475 only.

475 score = 28
471-474= 344people/score
465-470=189people/score
451-464= 675 (486+189)people/score


CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 8, 2019
CRS score:
601-1,200 =757
451-600 =14,180
441-450 =9,060


It means in 9 days from Oct 30th to Nov 8th, there where:
601-1,200 = 84 profile/day (757/9days)

451-600 = 241prof/day (14,180-12,009= 2,171/9days)

441-450 = 9,060-9,120= -60. For this eange we gonna use previous number which is 15profiles per day.


So, by 13th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,177(757+420(84x5days))
451-600=15,385(14,180+1,205(241x5d)
441-450= 9,135(9,060+75(15x5days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,376profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,376/31=109profile/score


After 13th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 472, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,177)
451-600 =12,962(15,385-2,423)
441-450= 9,135

Note: As cut off was 472, it means that the 12,962 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-4672 only.

472 score = 273
465-471=298(189+109)people/score
451-464= 784(675+109)people/score

So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1176(84x14days)
451-600=16,336(12,962+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,345(9,135+210(15x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score

With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 469-471
3,600 minus:
-1,176(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109 (of 480 newly added score)
-109 (of 479 newly added score)
-109 (of 478 newly added score)
-109 (of 477 newly added score)
-109 (of 476 newly added score)
-109 (of 475 newly added score)
-109 (of 474 newly added score)
-109 (of 473 newly added score)
-273(of 472 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 472 newly added score)
-298(of 471 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 471 newly added score)
-298(of 470 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 470 newly added score)
-247(of 298 of 469 left after 13th Nov draw).

After 27th November draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 469, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,176)
451-600 =13,912(16,336-2,424)
441-450= 9,345

Note: As cut off was 469, it means that the 13,912 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-469 only.

469 score = 160(51+109)
465-468=407(298+109)people/score
451-464= 893(784+109)people/score


So, by 11th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1176(84x14days)
451-600=17,286(13,912+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,555(9,345+210(15x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 27th Nov to 11th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score

With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 467-469
3,600 minus:
-1,176(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109 (of 480 newly added score)
-109 (of 479 newly added score)
-109 (of 478 newly added score)
-109 (of 477 newly added score)
-109 (of 476 newly added score)
-109 (of 475 newly added score)
-109 (of 474 newly added score)
-109 (of 473 newly added score)
-109 (of 472 newly added score)
-109 (of 471 newly added score)
-109 (of 470 newly added score)
-160 (of 469 left after 27th Nov draw)
-109 (of 469 newly added score)
-407 (of 468 left after 27th Nov draw)
-109 (of 468 newly added score)
-331 (407 of 467 left after 27th Nov draw)


After 11th December draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 467, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,176)
451-600 =14,862(17,286-3,374)
441-450= 9,555

Note: As cut off was 467, it means that the 14,862 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-467 only.

467 score =76 (407-331)
465-466=516(407+109)people/score
451-464= 1,002(893+109)people/score

So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=588(84x7days)
451-600=16,549(14,862+1,687(241x7d)
441-450= 9,630(9,555+75(15x7days))

Suppose that from the newly added 1,687 profile from 11th Dec to 18th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,687/31=55profile/score

With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 464-466
3,600 minus:
-588(601-1200)
-55 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-55 (of 480 newly added score)
-55 (of 479 newly added score)
-55 (of 478 newly added score)
-55 (of 477 newly added score)
-55 (of 476 newly added score)
-55 (of 475 newly added score)
-55 (of 474 newly added score)
-55 (of 473 newly added score)
-55 (of 472 newly added score)
-55 (of 471 newly added score)
-55 (of 470 newly added score)
-55 (of 469 newly added score)
-55 (of 468 newly added score)
-76 (of 467 left after 11th Dec draw)
-55 (of 467 newly added score)
-516 (of 466 left after 11th Dec draw)
-55 (of 466 newly added score)
-516 (of 465 left after 11th Dec draw)
-55 (of 465 newly added score)
-969 (of 1,002 of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)
Click to expand...
Thanks a lot dear...for taking so much effort in this calculation....yes I m waiting for my CR's 465 ....in the meantime trying to get a job offer from Canada which will increase my CR's..... B my consultant told not to go for PNP for sakeschetian ..as there r less job opportunities n after getting PNP we HV to work there I mean in that province for at least two years n moreover there jobs also have not good salary pkg....so waiting
 
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Dheana90

Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6332
umayash said:
Thanks a lot dear...for taking so much effort in this calculation....yes I m waiting for my CR's 465 ....in the meantime trying to get a job offer from Canada which will increase my CR's..... B my consultant told not to go for PNP for sakeschetian ..as there r less job opportunities n after getting PNP we HV to work there I mean in that province for at least two years n moreover there jobs also have not good salary pkg....so waiting
Click to expand...
If you are outside Canada, it is almost impossible to get a job offer from Canadian employer as they mostly prefer someone who is already in the country and have work permit but the is no harm in trying,dear..All the best:)
 
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K

kabir_krishna

Hero Member
Jul 3, 2019
412
154
EricD said:
My prediction for next draw : 470-472 (I’m in between!)
This prediction considers the PNP effect and assumes that:
1) two months processing time for PNP
2) even distribution of scores between 451-481
Details:https://1drv.ms/u/s!AuKzhrQd5mmOrSZjSkAOQvs2vtWc?e=jbGqsm
A/B/C stands for different scenarios, with the speed of inflow adjusted to reflect increased awareness of EE globally, and other factors it may involve.
Click to expand...
what do u think of chances for 456
 
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