Ray of Hope - 130th Draw

[zagcollins]

Am I screwed if I'm at 448? I'm on a PGWP with 1 year experience... I will get 2 year skilled experience in 9 months reaching 473 any hopes of draw below 448 next year?

like it has been discussed several times, no one can tell. Atm though, chances look bleak considering the pool size above 451 is massive, and there are more people joining every day.

 

[zagcollins]

i have 460 points and my LMIA is expiring in coming jan anyyy hope???

Can't say because IRCC releases score distribution data across a certain range. So, cannot tell how many people are sitting above you atm. Having said that, a B2B draw may result in an ITA.

 

[shine04]

what is the minimum POF requirement for single and accompanying spouse applicant?

 

[badri.sri139]

I'm at 471 too, and just rest assured, we are very likely to get ITA in November, say 95% chance; and I predict 70% chance at next draw (Nov 13)

According to your calculations, What is your opinion about crs score 468? Will it go that down this year? What are the chances in November/December?

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

According to your calculations, What is your opinion about crs score 468? Will it go that down this year? What are the chances in November/December?

you will get ITA in November.

 

[tonydlaw24]

Maintenance notice is up guys!, Hopefully there would be a draw next week!. Keep hope kindled and alive. I wish all with the greatest hope, ITA before the end of the year.

 

[going2CA]

what is the minimum POF requirement for single and accompanying spouse applicant?

google is your friend !
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/documents/proof-funds.html

 

[bambisp]

Maintenance notice is up guys!, Hopefully there would be a draw next week!. Keep hope kindled and alive. I wish all with the greatest hope, ITA before the end of the year.

what does it mean when notice is up?

 

[tonydlaw24]

what does it mean when notice is up?

In recent time past, it usually means that a draw is about to take place.

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

In recent time past, it usually means that a draw is about to take place.

oh man I really hope you are right party is on me if the draw happens next week.

 

[Mama mia]

Hoping for a back to back next Wednesday

 

[Rickyguggu]

Hoping for a back to back next Wednesday

i dont think so. 2 months 4 draws

 

[mona247]

Let’s get some positivity going after today’s expected draw.

This draw was beneficial in one way it made running some calculations on Spreadsheet easier for me with alot less assumptions used to determine profile increase rate. So assuming the rate at which PNP and Profiles are getting added stays the same. I am able to Predict Below Scenarios:

Scenario One: Assuming CIC goes for the historic 18% to 20% higher ITAs than target.

Expected ITAs Under this Scenario: 95,100 (Approx)

To achieve the above CIC has two options:

Option One:

Conduct 6 Draws (3 in November and 3 in December)

Prediction for 2019 Last Draw: 452-455

Option Two (Unlikely):

Increase the number of invites to 5,850

Prediction for 2019 Last Draw: 454-456

Chances of it happening:

I have a feeling that 6 draws is possible, however given the disappointment IRCC has been I wouldn’t be surprised that the 18% to 20% increased ITA is not achieved this year. If this happens it would be best case scenario and would make a lot of people (including me) happy.

Scenario Two: 5 Draws

B2B in November between Regular draws and one B2B in December as expected.

Prediction for 2019 last draw: 456-459

Chances of it happening:

Speaking with hope. This scenario is highly probable. Lets hope for this one at least.

Scenario 3: CIC disappoints

CIC Continues the disappointing run with 4 draws and an expected December B2B

Prediction for last draw of 2019: 461-464

Chances of it happening:

90% of people are prepared for this scenario already. This Scenario will be a big disappointment. IRCC/Liberals you should be better then this.

Take aways from above Scenarios:

1. 461-475 guys please stop worrying you have a real chance even if CIC continues the disappointing trend. You guys make 450s like me anxious like hell.

2. PNPs are expected to decrease as most PNPs are done with their nomination quotas so take the last scenario range as worst case could be one or two points lower.

3. 455+ people even without any big surprise can hope for ITA in Q1 of 2020

With all due respect. I hope and pray the option one happens.. that is 6 draws.

But I think you have forgotten to mention option 4. That is only 3 draws happen. 2 in November and only one in December.

Sorry to say this option number 4 exists, the way IRCC is artificially inflating the crs cut off in May in October, I think all of us need to prepared to face option 3 and option 4 too!!

 

[mona247]

Start planning for pnp and of course the new mnp program once that’s out. Don’t lose hope but keep trying all avenues rather than just sitting and waiting because the trend seems very unpredictable right now

What is new mnp program? It still needs a connection to Manitoba!! True..

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

With all due respect. I hope and pray the option one happens.. that is 6 draws.

But I think you have forgotten to mention option 4. That is only 3 draws happen. 2 in November and only one in December.

Sorry to say this option number 4 exists, the way IRCC is artificially inflating the crs cut off in May in October, I think all of us need to prepared to face option 3 and option 4 too!!

why would there be only 3 Draws i.e 1 in December if one trend IRCC has maintained is the number draws per month. There will be 2 draws in December at least whether it is b2b or bi weekly the draw dates in November would clear that.
Although latest news is maintenance notice is up for Tuesday. Really hope there is a draw this Wednesday.