Ray of Hope - 129th Draw

[journey21]

On the contrary, what do you guys think are the upsides of being in Canada? Education, Health, Job??! None of these are getting any front seats AFAIK.

healthcare
clean air
non-judgmental society
absence of caste system
good governance
nice weather
space - lots of it
friendly folks - generally
great education
etc etc etc

 

[awley]

On the contrary, what do you guys think are the upsides of being in Canada? Education, Health, Job??! None of these are getting any front seats AFAIK.

My friends living in Canada think otherwise, I believe people in IT field have better job prospect compared to where I come from. Aside that, there are many things I stand to gain over there than staying back in my home country.
1. Security of lives and property
2. Good quality free education for kids
3. Access to good health care. ( people die of common malaria where I come from)
And so many more I cant think of at the moment.
4. Good probability of getting employed (many people are qualified in my home country and due to the high rate of unemployment have resorted to being serial entrepreneurs (buying and selling petty item). Getting a job here as a cleaner is that difficult.

I think the only possible downside is racism which I believe is quite rare compared to other developed countries.
This advantages might just be peculiar to me because I'm a Nigerian.

 

[vmsanthosh.chn]

My friends living in Canada think otherwise, I believe people in IT field have better job prospect compared to where I come from. Aside that, there are many things I stand to gain over there than staying back in my home country.
1. Security of lives and property
2. Good quality free education for kids
3. Access to good health care. ( people die of common malaria where I come from)
And so many more I cant think of at the moment.
4. Good probability of getting employed (many people are qualified in my home country and due to the high rate of unemployment have resorted to being serial entrepreneurs (buying and selling petty item). Getting a job here as a cleaner is that difficult.

I think the only possible downside is racism which I believe is quite rare compared to other developed countries.
This advantages might just be peculiar to me because I'm a Nigerian.

healthcare
clean air
non-judgmental society
absence of caste system
good governance
nice weather
space - lots of it
friendly folks - generally
great education
etc etc etc

Okay, let me share my view. First, it is very very expensive. Everything you touch here are expensive when compared to US and you get salary less than that of US too. Education? I am not so sure. I don't think it can ever come close to what we get these days in India. Kids in same grade in India would do much much better than those in here. I am only talking about elem, high schools, not colleges. Jobs? It's hell. Extremely difficult to get one for immigrants without Canadian experience. I heard big companies posts ads after hiring someone behind the scenes already. ONLY referrals works here, including IT. Space, I agree there's a lot, but real estate price is not so good. You can't afford if both both parents are not working. Health? Yes, it's free, but getting "timely" treatment is very difficult, including ER. Forget about ER, if you are in urgent need. If you have any illness for specialists, you may have to wait for 6 months (mostly by that time you get cured on its own). Emergency? You got to wait a lot for an ambulance to come in. And weather? holly molly!! it goes down to -20/-30 deg C very easily during winter and well we are talking about 6 months of winter. Good sides - security of life, that's best here and like you said clean air. People are very nice, as far as I have seen, but very reserved. You won't feel the warmth like the US.

 

[indpnv]

Okay, let me share my view. First, it is very very expensive. Everything you touch here are expensive when compared to US and you get salary less than that of US too. Education? I am not so sure. I don't think it can ever come close to what we get these days in India. Kids in same grade in India would do much much better than those in here. I am only talking about elem, high schools, not colleges. Jobs? It's hell. Extremely difficult to get one for immigrants without Canadian experience. I heard big companies posts ads after hiring someone behind the scenes already. ONLY referrals works here, including IT. Space, I agree there's a lot, but real estate price is not so good. You can't afford if both both parents are not working. Health? Yes, it's free, but getting "timely" treatment is very difficult, including ER. Forget about ER, if you are in urgent need. If you have any illness for specialists, you may have to wait for 6 months (mostly by that time you get cured on its own). Emergency? You got to wait a lot for an ambulance to come in. And weather? holly molly!! it goes down to -20/-30 deg C very easily during winter and well we are talking about 6 months of winter. Good sides - security of life, that's best here and like you said clean air. People are very nice, as far as I have seen, but very reserved. You won't feel the warmth like the US.

Did you move to Canada from the US?

 

[smash1984]

Okay, let me share my view. First, it is very very expensive. Everything you touch here are expensive when compared to US and you get salary less than that of US too. Education? I am not so sure. I don't think it can ever come close to what we get these days in India. Kids in same grade in India would do much much better than those in here. I am only talking about elem, high schools, not colleges. Jobs? It's hell. Extremely difficult to get one for immigrants without Canadian experience. I heard big companies posts ads after hiring someone behind the scenes already. ONLY referrals works here, including IT. Space, I agree there's a lot, but real estate price is not so good. You can't afford if both both parents are not working. Health? Yes, it's free, but getting "timely" treatment is very difficult, including ER. Forget about ER, if you are in urgent need. If you have any illness for specialists, you may have to wait for 6 months (mostly by that time you get cured on its own). Emergency? You got to wait a lot for an ambulance to come in. And weather? holly molly!! it goes down to -20/-30 deg C very easily during winter and well we are talking about 6 months of winter. Good sides - security of life, that's best here and like you said clean air. People are very nice, as far as I have seen, but very reserved. You won't feel the warmth like the US.

After my awful experience with US healthcare I really find the Canadian system so much better.

It is far from perfect, but i don't feel like I am being over examined and over medicated just so the medical system can suck dollars out of my health insurance (which itself for a family of 4 wasn't cheap).

 

[Midnight Blessing]

guys with score about 460+ pls dont be upset, you guys will get ITA by end of 2019. Its a very hard time for all of us and thats true but better days are about to come soon, so pls pray and be optimistic. My prediction is that there will be a B2B draw on December.

 

[mrs.Saifee]

how old should be our employment letter from the current employee?
I have 457 was so sure will get an ITA that I applied for employment letter a month ago and got it in a day..

 

[Woqi114]

how old should be our employment letter from the current employee?
I have 457 was so sure will get an ITA that I applied for employment letter a month ago and got it in a day..

Same here I was so sure of getting an ITA in September that I applied for the experience letter and they handed that over in a day.

I'm now thinking of getting a fresh one after getting an ITA.

 

[mrs.Saifee]

Same here I was so sure of getting an ITA in September that I applied for the experience letter and they handed that over in a day.

I'm now thinking of getting a fresh one after getting an ITA.

it wont be possible for me to get a new one ..what should I do?

 

[Woqi114]

it wont be possible for me to get a new one ..what should I do?

You can try asking for a new one (If they agreed for the first time, they might agree gain) but if that's not an option, you can use the old one but better it's not older than 6 months for the current job.

 

[mrs.Saifee]

You can try asking for a new one (If they agreed for the first time, they might agree gain) but if that's not an option, you can use the old one but better it's not older than 6 months for the current job.

yess and maybe I can attach the playslips as well.of each month showing my work epxerience?

 

[Karim88]

Dear @bambisp

Below is my estimation calculation of CRS cut off for 30th October draw and onwards:

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 11, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200=509
451-600=9,632
441-450=8,833

It means in 9 days from Oct 2nd to Oct 11th, there where:
601-1,200 = 57 profile/day (509/9days)

451-600 = 314 prof/day (9,632-6,810 = 2,822/9days)

441-450 = 10 prof/day(8,833-8,739= 94/9days)


So, by 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,592(509+1083(57x19days)
451-600=15,598(9,632+5,966(314x19d)
441-450= 9,023(8,833+190(10x19days))

Suppose that from the newly added 8,788 (2,822+5,966) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 481 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 8,788/31=283profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 473-475
3,900 minus:
-1,592(601-1200)
-283 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-283 (of 480 newly added score)
-283 (of 479 newly added score)
-283 (of 478 newly added score)
-283 (of 477 newly added score)
-283 (of 476 newly added score)
-283 (of 475 newly added score)
-283 (of 474 newly added score)
-44 (of 283 of 473 newly added score)

After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and let's say the cut off will be 473, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -1,592)
451-600 =13,284(15,592-2,308)
441-450= 9,023

Note: As cut off was 473, it means that the 13,284 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-473 only.

473 score = 239
465-472 range= 283 people/score
451-464= 769 people/score

So, by 13th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=17,680(13,284+4,396(314x14d)
441-450= 9,163(9,023+140(10x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 4,396 profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (451-480 to 600). Thus,it will make 4,396/30=147profile/score.

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 469
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-147 (of 480-600 newly added score)
-147 (of 479 newly added score)
-147 (of 478 newly added score)
-147 (of 477 newly added score)
-147 (of 476 newly added score)
-147 (of 475 newly added score)
-147 (of 474 newly added score)
-239 (of 473 left after 30th Oct draw)
-147 (of 473 newly added score)
-283 (of 472 left after 30th Oct draw)
-147 (of 472 newly added score)
-283 (of 471 left after 30th Oct draw)
-147 (of 471 newly added score)
-283 of 470 left after 30th Oct draw)
-147 (of 470 newly added score)
-283 of 469 left after 30th Oct draw)
-114 (of 147 of 469 newly added score)

After 13th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off will be 470, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -798)
451-600 =14,578(17,680-3,102)
441-450= 9,163

Note: As cut off was 469, it means that the 14,578 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-469 only. 469 score = 33people
465-468 =430 people/score
451-464= 916 people/score

So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=18,974(14578+4,396(314x14d)
441-450= 9,303(9,163+140(10x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 4,396 profile from13th Nov to 27th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (45-480 to 600). Thus,it will make 4,396/30=147profile/score.

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 466
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-147 (of 480-600 newly added score)
-147 (of 479 newly added score)
-147 (of 478 newly added score)
-147 (of 477 newly added score)
-147 (of 476 newly added score)
-147 (of 475 newly added score)
-147 (of 474 newly added score)
-147 (of 473 newly added score)
-147 (of 472 newly added score)
-147 (of 471 newly added score)
-147 (of 470 newly added score)
-33 (of 469 left after 13th Nov draw)
-147 (of 469 newly added score)
-430 (of 468 left after 13th Nov draw)
-147 (of 468 newly added score)
-430 (of 467 left after 13th Nov draw)
-147 (of 467 newly added score)
-151 (of 430 of 466 left after 13th Nov draw).

After 27th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off will be 466, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -798)
451-600 =15,872(18,974-3,102)
441-450= 9,303

Note: As cut off was 466, it means that the 15,872 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-466 only. 466 score= 426 people
465= 564 people
451-464= 1063 people/score

Let's assume that the influx of people who has score of 451-600 has reduced to 295/day.

So, by 11th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=19,862(15,872+3,990(295x14d)
441-450= 9,303(9,163+140(10x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,990 profile from13th Nov to 27th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (45-480 to 600). Thus,it will make 3,990/30=133profile/score.

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 465
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-133 (of 480-600 newly added score)
-133 (of 479 newly added score)
-133 (of 478 newly added score)
-133 (of 477 newly added score)
-133 (of 476 newly added score)
-133 (of 475 newly added score)
-133 (of 474 newly added score)
-133 (of 473 newly added score)
-133 (of 472 newly added score)
-133 (of 471 newly added score)
-133 (of 470 newly added score)
-133 (of 469 newly added score)
-133 (of 468 newly added score)
-133 (of 467 newly added score)
-426 of 466 left after 13th Nov draw)
-133 (of 466 newly added score)
-564 of 465 left after 13th Nov draw)
-117 (of 133 of 465 newly added score)


After 27th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off will be 466, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -798)
451-600 =16,760(19,862-3,102)
441-450= 9,303

Note: As cut off was 465, it means that the 16,760 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-465 only. 465 score= 16 people
451-464= 1196 people/score

So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=399(57x7days)
451-600=18,825(16,760+2,065(295x7d)
441-450= 9,373(9,303+70(10x7days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,065 profile from13th Nov to 27th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (45-480 to 600). Thus,it will make 2,065/30=69profile/score.

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 463
3,900 minus:
-399(601-1200)
-69 (of 480-600 newly added score)
-69 (of 479 newly added score)
-69 (of 478 newly added score)
-69 (of 477 newly added score)
-69 (of 476 newly added score)
-69 (of 475 newly added score)
-69 (of 474 newly added score)
-69 (of 473 newly added score)
-69 (of 472 newly added score)
-69 (of 471 newly added score)
-69 (of 470 newly added score)
-69 (of 469 newly added score)
-69 (of 468 newly added score)
-69 (of 467 newly added score)
-69 (of 466 newly added score)
-16 of 465 left after 11th Dec draw)
-69 (of 465 newly added score)
-1,196 (of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)
-1,185 (of 1,196 of 463 left after 11th Dec draw).

I struggle to understand your prediction for 18 Dec 2019. Why did you predict CRS score decrease of 3 points from 466 to 463 when there is only 1 week gap whereas you also predicted 3 points decrease for 2 weeks gap between 13 Nov and 27 Nov..? Appreciate your explanation, if any.

 

[Dheana90]

I struggle to understand your prediction for 18 Dec 2019. Why did you predict CRS score decrease of 3 points from 466 to 463 when there is only 1 week gap whereas you also predicted 3 points gap for 2 weeks gap between 13 Nov and 27 Nov..? Appreciate your explanation, if any.

I think you just keep on scrolling down just to see the CRS cut off without reading the whole calculation,dear...My estimation calculation is easy to understand and clear enough to explain the difference if you read properly..one week gap between draws means lesser high scorer (460+) and I made an assumption there that the influx of people in the score range of 450-600 will be decreasing to 295people/day from 314people/day. The number of people sitting at 465 are only handful as well(only 16 people left). Therefore, with 3900 ITA and only one week gap after previous draw,the cut off score will obviously decrease more.

 

[breakthrough2019]

A friend of mine has 470. Any hopes for him ?

 

[Imran_114]

Dear Experts, I am new to this group. My wife is the primary candidate and our CRS stands at 456. Can I hope for an ITA in next few rounds.
Thanks...