Ray of Hope - 129th Draw
- Thread starter NikSharma01
- Start date
My score now is 345 so I am not that worried 
...its the people who are above 440 they stand a good chance... Happy Diwali and stay positive...
...its the people who are above 440 they stand a good chance... Happy Diwali and stay positive...I hope to see it go even below 440...just being in diwali moodWish you all a very Happy Diwali. May God fulfill all your dreams. Good luck for your Canadian dream journey and be positive always!
By the end of this year, cut-off will be recorded at 455 before Happy Holidays begin. Good luck
Not necessary they should issue 20% more bro...it all depends on the ITA successful conversions and number of people per ITA , I feel they ll stick on to the same targets but I strongly hope they increase as per your calculations
Its true what u r saying it also depends on ITA rejection... successful ratio and people per ITA...but from 2017 there has always been 20% more because of rejection...now lets say even its not 20% there are definately some rejection so we need to factor that ratio...now nobody but IRCC has that number
...it can be more rejections or less, the percentage may vary...I just considered same as last 2 years...Things could get much clearer post 30th Oct draw...let's wait and watch ircc's gameIts true what u r saying it also depends on ITA rejection... successful ratio and people per ITA...but from 2017 there has always been 20% more because of rejection...now lets say even its not 20% there are definately some rejection so we need to factor that ratio...now nobody but IRCC has that number
Dear @bambisp
Below is my estimation calculation of CRS cut off for 30th October draw and onwards:
After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739
Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 11, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200=509
451-600=9,632
441-450=8,833
It means in 9 days from Oct 2nd to Oct 11th, there where:
601-1,200 = 57 profile/day (509/9days)
451-600 = 314 prof/day (9,632-6,810 = 2,822/9days)
441-450 = 10 prof/day(8,833-8,739= 94/9days)
So, by 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=1,592(509+1083(57x19days)
451-600=15,598(9,632+5,966(314x19d)
441-450= 9,023(8,833+190(10x19days))
Suppose that from the newly added 8,788 (2,822+5,966) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 481 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 8,788/31=283profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 473-475
3,900 minus:
-1,592(601-1200)
-283 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-283 (of 480 newly added score)
-283 (of 479 newly added score)
-283 (of 478 newly added score)
-283 (of 477 newly added score)
-283 (of 476 newly added score)
-283 (of 475 newly added score)
-283 (of 474 newly added score)
-44 (of 283 of 473 newly added score)
After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and let's say the cut off will be 473, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -1,592)
451-600 =13,284(15,592-2,308)
441-450= 9,023
Note: As cut off was 473, it means that the 13,284 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-473 only.
473 score = 239
465-472 range= 283 people/score
451-464= 769 people/score
So, by 13th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=17,680(13,284+4,396(314x14d)
441-450= 9,163(9,023+140(10x14days))
Suppose that from the newly added 4,396 profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (451-480 to 600). Thus,it will make 4,396/30=147profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 469
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-147 (of 480-600 newly added score)
-147 (of 479 newly added score)
-147 (of 478 newly added score)
-147 (of 477 newly added score)
-147 (of 476 newly added score)
-147 (of 475 newly added score)
-147 (of 474 newly added score)
-239 (of 473 left after 30th Oct draw)
-147 (of 473 newly added score)
-283 (of 472 left after 30th Oct draw)
-147 (of 472 newly added score)
-283 (of 471 left after 30th Oct draw)
-147 (of 471 newly added score)
-283 of 470 left after 30th Oct draw)
-147 (of 470 newly added score)
-283 of 469 left after 30th Oct draw)
-114 (of 147 of 469 newly added score)
After 13th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off will be 470, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -798)
451-600 =14,578(17,680-3,102)
441-450= 9,163
Note: As cut off was 469, it means that the 14,578 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-469 only. 469 score = 33people
465-468 =430 people/score
451-464= 916 people/score
So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=18,974(14578+4,396(314x14d)
441-450= 9,303(9,163+140(10x14days))
Suppose that from the newly added 4,396 profile from13th Nov to 27th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (45-480 to 600). Thus,it will make 4,396/30=147profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 466
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-147 (of 480-600 newly added score)
-147 (of 479 newly added score)
-147 (of 478 newly added score)
-147 (of 477 newly added score)
-147 (of 476 newly added score)
-147 (of 475 newly added score)
-147 (of 474 newly added score)
-147 (of 473 newly added score)
-147 (of 472 newly added score)
-147 (of 471 newly added score)
-147 (of 470 newly added score)
-33 (of 469 left after 13th Nov draw)
-147 (of 469 newly added score)
-430 (of 468 left after 13th Nov draw)
-147 (of 468 newly added score)
-430 (of 467 left after 13th Nov draw)
-147 (of 467 newly added score)
-151 (of 430 of 466 left after 13th Nov draw).
After 27th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off will be 466, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -798)
451-600 =15,872(18,974-3,102)
441-450= 9,303
Note: As cut off was 466, it means that the 15,872 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-466 only. 466 score= 426 people
465= 564 people
451-464= 1063 people/score
Let's assume that the influx of people who has score of 451-600 has reduced to 295/day.
So, by 11th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=19,862(15,872+3,990(295x14d)
441-450= 9,303(9,163+140(10x14days))
Suppose that from the newly added 3,990 profile from13th Nov to 27th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (45-480 to 600). Thus,it will make 3,990/30=133profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 465
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-133 (of 480-600 newly added score)
-133 (of 479 newly added score)
-133 (of 478 newly added score)
-133 (of 477 newly added score)
-133 (of 476 newly added score)
-133 (of 475 newly added score)
-133 (of 474 newly added score)
-133 (of 473 newly added score)
-133 (of 472 newly added score)
-133 (of 471 newly added score)
-133 (of 470 newly added score)
-133 (of 469 newly added score)
-133 (of 468 newly added score)
-133 (of 467 newly added score)
-426 of 466 left after 13th Nov draw)
-133 (of 466 newly added score)
-564 of 465 left after 13th Nov draw)
-117 (of 133 of 465 newly added score)
After 27th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off will be 466, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -798)
451-600 =16,760(19,862-3,102)
441-450= 9,303
Note: As cut off was 465, it means that the 16,760 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-465 only. 465 score= 16 people
451-464= 1196 people/score
So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=399(57x7days)
451-600=18,825(16,760+2,065(295x7d)
441-450= 9,373(9,303+70(10x7days))
Suppose that from the newly added 2,065 profile from13th Nov to 27th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (45-480 to 600). Thus,it will make 2,065/30=69profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 463
3,900 minus:
-399(601-1200)
-69 (of 480-600 newly added score)
-69 (of 479 newly added score)
-69 (of 478 newly added score)
-69 (of 477 newly added score)
-69 (of 476 newly added score)
-69 (of 475 newly added score)
-69 (of 474 newly added score)
-69 (of 473 newly added score)
-69 (of 472 newly added score)
-69 (of 471 newly added score)
-69 (of 470 newly added score)
-69 (of 469 newly added score)
-69 (of 468 newly added score)
-69 (of 467 newly added score)
-69 (of 466 newly added score)
-16 of 465 left after 11th Dec draw)
-69 (of 465 newly added score)
-1,196 (of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)
-1,185 (of 1,196 of 463 left after 11th Dec draw).
Below is my estimation calculation of CRS cut off for 30th October draw and onwards:
After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739
Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 11, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200=509
451-600=9,632
441-450=8,833
It means in 9 days from Oct 2nd to Oct 11th, there where:
601-1,200 = 57 profile/day (509/9days)
451-600 = 314 prof/day (9,632-6,810 = 2,822/9days)
441-450 = 10 prof/day(8,833-8,739= 94/9days)
So, by 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=1,592(509+1083(57x19days)
451-600=15,598(9,632+5,966(314x19d)
441-450= 9,023(8,833+190(10x19days))
Suppose that from the newly added 8,788 (2,822+5,966) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 481 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 8,788/31=283profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 473-475
3,900 minus:
-1,592(601-1200)
-283 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-283 (of 480 newly added score)
-283 (of 479 newly added score)
-283 (of 478 newly added score)
-283 (of 477 newly added score)
-283 (of 476 newly added score)
-283 (of 475 newly added score)
-283 (of 474 newly added score)
-44 (of 283 of 473 newly added score)
After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and let's say the cut off will be 473, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -1,592)
451-600 =13,284(15,592-2,308)
441-450= 9,023
Note: As cut off was 473, it means that the 13,284 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-473 only.
473 score = 239
465-472 range= 283 people/score
451-464= 769 people/score
So, by 13th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=17,680(13,284+4,396(314x14d)
441-450= 9,163(9,023+140(10x14days))
Suppose that from the newly added 4,396 profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (451-480 to 600). Thus,it will make 4,396/30=147profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 469
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-147 (of 480-600 newly added score)
-147 (of 479 newly added score)
-147 (of 478 newly added score)
-147 (of 477 newly added score)
-147 (of 476 newly added score)
-147 (of 475 newly added score)
-147 (of 474 newly added score)
-239 (of 473 left after 30th Oct draw)
-147 (of 473 newly added score)
-283 (of 472 left after 30th Oct draw)
-147 (of 472 newly added score)
-283 (of 471 left after 30th Oct draw)
-147 (of 471 newly added score)
-283 of 470 left after 30th Oct draw)
-147 (of 470 newly added score)
-283 of 469 left after 30th Oct draw)
-114 (of 147 of 469 newly added score)
After 13th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off will be 470, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -798)
451-600 =14,578(17,680-3,102)
441-450= 9,163
Note: As cut off was 469, it means that the 14,578 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-469 only. 469 score = 33people
465-468 =430 people/score
451-464= 916 people/score
So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=18,974(14578+4,396(314x14d)
441-450= 9,303(9,163+140(10x14days))
Suppose that from the newly added 4,396 profile from13th Nov to 27th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (45-480 to 600). Thus,it will make 4,396/30=147profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 466
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-147 (of 480-600 newly added score)
-147 (of 479 newly added score)
-147 (of 478 newly added score)
-147 (of 477 newly added score)
-147 (of 476 newly added score)
-147 (of 475 newly added score)
-147 (of 474 newly added score)
-147 (of 473 newly added score)
-147 (of 472 newly added score)
-147 (of 471 newly added score)
-147 (of 470 newly added score)
-33 (of 469 left after 13th Nov draw)
-147 (of 469 newly added score)
-430 (of 468 left after 13th Nov draw)
-147 (of 468 newly added score)
-430 (of 467 left after 13th Nov draw)
-147 (of 467 newly added score)
-151 (of 430 of 466 left after 13th Nov draw).
After 27th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off will be 466, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -798)
451-600 =15,872(18,974-3,102)
441-450= 9,303
Note: As cut off was 466, it means that the 15,872 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-466 only. 466 score= 426 people
465= 564 people
451-464= 1063 people/score
Let's assume that the influx of people who has score of 451-600 has reduced to 295/day.
So, by 11th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=19,862(15,872+3,990(295x14d)
441-450= 9,303(9,163+140(10x14days))
Suppose that from the newly added 3,990 profile from13th Nov to 27th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (45-480 to 600). Thus,it will make 3,990/30=133profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 465
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-133 (of 480-600 newly added score)
-133 (of 479 newly added score)
-133 (of 478 newly added score)
-133 (of 477 newly added score)
-133 (of 476 newly added score)
-133 (of 475 newly added score)
-133 (of 474 newly added score)
-133 (of 473 newly added score)
-133 (of 472 newly added score)
-133 (of 471 newly added score)
-133 (of 470 newly added score)
-133 (of 469 newly added score)
-133 (of 468 newly added score)
-133 (of 467 newly added score)
-426 of 466 left after 13th Nov draw)
-133 (of 466 newly added score)
-564 of 465 left after 13th Nov draw)
-117 (of 133 of 465 newly added score)
After 27th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off will be 466, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -798)
451-600 =16,760(19,862-3,102)
441-450= 9,303
Note: As cut off was 465, it means that the 16,760 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-465 only. 465 score= 16 people
451-464= 1196 people/score
So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=399(57x7days)
451-600=18,825(16,760+2,065(295x7d)
441-450= 9,373(9,303+70(10x7days))
Suppose that from the newly added 2,065 profile from13th Nov to 27th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (45-480 to 600). Thus,it will make 2,065/30=69profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 463
3,900 minus:
-399(601-1200)
-69 (of 480-600 newly added score)
-69 (of 479 newly added score)
-69 (of 478 newly added score)
-69 (of 477 newly added score)
-69 (of 476 newly added score)
-69 (of 475 newly added score)
-69 (of 474 newly added score)
-69 (of 473 newly added score)
-69 (of 472 newly added score)
-69 (of 471 newly added score)
-69 (of 470 newly added score)
-69 (of 469 newly added score)
-69 (of 468 newly added score)
-69 (of 467 newly added score)
-69 (of 466 newly added score)
-16 of 465 left after 11th Dec draw)
-69 (of 465 newly added score)
-1,196 (of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)
-1,185 (of 1,196 of 463 left after 11th Dec draw).
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lets wait for Wednesday...ohhh yeah somebody reminded me abt PNP... looking at SINP spree of invitations they might not give 30k...Things could get much clearer post 30th Oct draw...let's wait and watch ircc's game
in other words, at 461, I am wasting time?
omg! or maybe just have to wait till jan...ANXIETY
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don't forget there's a possibility of a b2b draw happening before the year ends.
That's 50/50 chance,dear...May or may not happen. If it happens then you might have a chance of getting an ITA,dear..
in other words, at 461, I am wasting time?
You are not wasting your time... this is just an estimated calculation , which obviously is subject to change considering different variables ...Am on 462 , and I believe December will not pass me by.in other words, at 461, I am wasting time?