Thx! Could I send one of my essay to you? I’m new and cannot find how to send a message to youಥ_ಥ
Ray of Hope - 128th Draw
- Thread starter vvik33
- Start date
No, you have to remember that those numbers are taken out after 2nd October draw. It's actually 2,822 in 15 days not 678. So here is how I estimate it:
After 18th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 462, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -655)
451-600 =7,277(10,222-2,945)
441-450= 8,645
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of September 27, 2019 CRS score range
Number of candidates
601-1,200 =579
451-600 =8,946
441-450 =8,704
It means in 9 days from Sep 18th to Sep 27th, there where:
601-1,200 = 64 profile/day (579/9days)
451-600 = 185 prof/day (8,946-7277 = 1,669/9days)
441-450 = 7 prof/day(8,704-8,645= 59/9days)
So, by 2nd October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=839(579+260(47x 5days))
451-600=9,871(8,946+925(185x5days))
441-450= 8,739 (8,704+35(7x5days))
After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 11, 2019 are:
601-1,200=509
451-600=9,632
441-450=8,833
It means in 9 days from Oct 2nd to Oct 11th, there where:
601-1,200 = 57 profile/day (509/9days)
451-600 = 314 prof/day (9,632-6,810 = 2,822/9days)
441-450 = 10 prof/day(8,833-8,739= 94/9days)
475 probably. And I'm not being negative, just look at the number of 601-1200 in the pool as of October 11th (509)
Looks like May 2019 all over again when they skipped the middle of the month draw and it went up by almost 20 points
Hi dear,
Below is my estimation calculation of CRS cut off for 23rd or 30th October draw:
After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739
Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 11, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200=509
451-600=9,632
441-450=8,833
It means in 9 days from Oct 2nd to Oct 11th, there where:
601-1,200 = 57 profile/day (509/9days)
451-600 = 314 prof/day (9,632-6,810 = 2,822/9days)
441-450 = 10 prof/day(8,833-8,739= 94/9days)
So, by 23rdth October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=1,193(509 + 684(57x12days))
451-600=13,400(9,632+3,768(314x12d)
441-450= 8,953(8,833+120(10x12days))
Suppose that from the newly added 6,590 (2,822+3,768) profile from 2nd Oct to 23rd Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 6,590/26=253profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 466-467
3,900 minus:
-1193(601-1200)
-253 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-253 (of 475 newly added score)
-253 (of 474 newly added score)
-253 (of 473 newly added score)
-253 (of 472 newly added score)
-253 (of 471 newly added score)
-253 (of 470 newly added score)
-253 (of 469 newly added score)
-253 (of 468 newly added score)
-253 (of 467 newly added score)
-177 (of 466 newly added score)
By 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=1,592(509+1083(57x19days)
451-600=15,598(9,632+5,966(314x19d)
441-450= 9,023(8,833+190(10x19days))
Suppose that from the newly added 8,788 (2,822+5,966) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 8,788/26=338profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 470-471
3,900 minus:
-1,592(601-1200)
-338 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-338 (of 475 newly added score)
-338 (of 474 newly added score)
-338 (of 473 newly added score)
-338 (of 472 newly added score)
-338 (of 471 newly added score)
-280 (of 338 of 470 newly added score)
not sure if there's been any news around it. Elections next week, and next draw most likely week after.
A hunch based on circumstances and experience.. I've been here waiting since oct 18.. nothing more than a hunch..
If you have the money and time, go for it!
Read the policy on pcc.. if required, get Russian pcc in advance.. leave no stone unturned
Can the rate of new profile creation jump from 185 per day 314 per day, for the 450-600 bracket??
Something is not adding up right.
Something is not adding up right.
It might be due to the elections. People probably want their profiles in the pool before Oct 21st.
Even i am having the similar doubt... How come profiles suddenly increased to 300+ profiles per day...
I have been in the pool since August with 432 points, and updated my profile and jumped to 464 two days ago. Waiting for ITA now.
Will lose 5 points in late November, but can compensate it with a higher score from IELTS.
Any hope for me?
Thanks.
Will lose 5 points in late November, but can compensate it with a higher score from IELTS.
Any hope for me?
Thanks.