Ray of Hope - 125th Draw

vinoth388 · Sep 4, 2019

Dheana90 said:
My previous estimation for CRS distribution pool and cut off was for 3nd Sep. So, let's see if there will be any difference in cut off score range if I add one more day to the calculation.

After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189

Note: As cut off was 457, it means that the 5,345 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-457 only. Let's assume that 5,345 are distributed equally to 451-457 score range. Thus, it makes 5,345/7=763 profile per score.

So, by 4th September, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 630 (42x 15days)
451-600 =10,055(5,345+4,710(314x15days))
441-450= 8,399(8,084+315(21x15days))

Suppose that from 4710 newly added profile from 20th August to 4rd Sep, 2,355(50% of 4,710) are of score 458-600 and the other half are of 451-457 score range which will be distributed equally through. So, it makes 2,355/7=336 profile per score.

So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 455-457
3,600 minus:
-630(601-1200)
-2,355 (of 4,710 from 458-600 score range)
-615(of 763 from 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)

with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 455-457.
3,900 minus:
-630(601-1200)
-2,355(of 4,396 from 458-600 score range)
-763(of 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)
-152(of 336 in 457 score added after 20 Aug)

Cut off score estimation for 3,900 ITAs changed from 454-456 to 455-457.

So, it means that 300 increase in ITA numbers from 3,600 to 3,900 won't make any difference in cut off score according to this calculation/estimation.

Hope your prediction comes true

Dheana90 · Sep 4, 2019

rajapanesar said:
300 won't make a difference today, but in the long term, it'll be beneficial for <450 candidates.

I agree and I didn't say it won't make any difference in the future. My stetement is only referring to the CRS cut off calculation for today's draw. I hope it's clear now

Priyanka2010 · Sep 4, 2019

hamhk202 said:
What's the maintenance notice and where we can see it?

The notice looks like this http://imgur.com/a/Y8jPW. It's not available right now.

ripul · Sep 4, 2019

ginger_power said:
Hi there! please add me on 483.
and I have a quick question. Since my application met FSW and CEC, I think I will get ITA under FSW. But I am not prepared for FSW. should I decline the ITA this time and waiting for another invitation? some people says set my POF to '0', but I'm working with LMIA ( FSW doesn't need POF since I work with a valid job offer.) so I don't need POF even if I apply for FSW. what should I do?

You look confused mate. How are you not prepared for FSW? You have valid job offer in Canada so there is no PoF requirement, it is easy by the way.

Dheana90 · Sep 4, 2019

vinoth388 said:
Hope your prediction comes true

Well, this calculation is only an estimation,dear.. I hope the cut of score will be lower than this but we don't know the exact CRS distribution score ranges in the pool so, can't really predict the exact cut off points.

robin6869 · Sep 4, 2019

Its 2:50 AM in Canada so have to wait for at least 10 hours. Brace your self guys. Score will be 455, I respect and appreciate your calculations for 456-457 and some anti optimistic who said it will never go below 457 this year . Anyway, i am not expert and myself waiting at 448 but I strongly believe 4 sept draw will be 455. High density should be at around 450-452.
I cant sleep or work or wait but still I have to, We all have to

All the best, Never loose hope. Canada is always welcoming and will be

asad_ali_awan · Sep 4, 2019

Dheana90 said:
My previous estimation for CRS distribution pool and cut off was for 3rd Sep. So, let's see if there will be any difference in cut off score range if I add one more day to the calculation.

After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189

Note: As cut off was 457, it means that the 5,345 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-457 only. Let's assume that 5,345 are distributed equally to 451-457 score range. Thus, it makes 5,345/7=763 profile per score.

So, by 4th September, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 630 (42x 15days)
451-600 =10,055(5,345+4,710(314x15days))
441-450= 8,399(8,084+315(21x15days))

Suppose that from 4710 newly added profile from 20th August to 4rd Sep, 2,355(50% of 4,710) are of score 458-600 and the other half are of 451-457 score range which will be distributed equally through. So, it makes 2,355/7=336 profile per score.

So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 455-457
3,600 minus:
-630(601-1200)
-2,355 (of 4,710 from 458-600 score range)
-615(of 763 from 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)

with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 455-457.
3,900 minus:
-630(601-1200)
-2,355(of 4,396 from 458-600 score range)
-763(of 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)
-152(of 336 in 457 score added after 20 Aug)

Cut off score estimation for 3,900 ITAs changed from 454-456 to 455-457.

So, it means that 300 increase in ITA numbers from 3,600 to 3,900 won't make any difference in cut off score according to this calculation/estimation.

Great effort..

#EEC · Sep 4, 2019

nikhil_pal said:
Is this year any chance for CRS 449 sitting in the pool since June 2019.

Just sitting in pool won't help much. .. Try to increase score by every possible way

rajapanesar · Sep 4, 2019

Dheana90 said:
I agree and I didn't say it won't make any difference in the future. My stetement is only referring to the CRS cut off calculation for today's draw. I hope it's clear now

Didn't want to deny your calculations, just gave my opinion for some people who start questioning about future predictions surrounding 450 scores.
You're absolutely fine dear, no objections from my side.

ahsanshahbaz · Sep 4, 2019

#EEC said:
Can u share link where it says can't use money showed as proof of fund. ..

"The funds must be available both when you apply and when (if) we issue you a permanent resident visa. You must prove to an immigration officer that you can legally access the money to use here when you arrive."

1. POF should be in account when you apply.
2. POF should be in account when PR is issued (They check this during eligibility)
3. You should have them in hand or in bank when you land immigration officer can ask you.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/documents/proof-funds.html

globus.we · Sep 4, 2019

It is possible that CRS will drop to 449 level this year.

patel_d07 · Sep 4, 2019

globus.we said:
It is possible that CRS will drop to 449 level this year.

Sorry mate, but it doesn’t seems like happening.
And remember there will be a three draws in October and out of those, one will be FSW.

Woqi114 · Sep 4, 2019

patel_d07 said:
Sorry mate, but it doesn’t seems like happening.
And remember there will be a three draws in October and out of those, one will be FSW.

FST*

patel_d07 · Sep 4, 2019

#EEC said:
Just sitting in pool won't help much. .. Try to increase score by every possible way

100% agree with you. I was by myself on 448 from april till last week.

patel_d07 · Sep 4, 2019

Woqi114 said:
FST*

Yes, thanks for correcting

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Ray of Hope - 125th Draw

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