Ray of Hope - 125th Draw

[Jay2019]

I’m not an expert. But, here’s my prediction for the draw on 4 September.
ITAs: 3600
CRS cutoff: 456 (tiebreaker mid-may 2019)

 

[ankitpanchal]

Guys any idea when we know that draws gonna happen? (canadian time)

 

[fperk_83]

Guys any idea when we know that draws gonna happen? (canadian time)

Around 11.30 to 12.30 Canadian time. That's what I noticed in earlier draws..it was between these time

 

[Dheana90]

Below are my estimation of CRS distribution and cut off score for 3rd Sep draw if it hapens on that date.

After 24th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-407=3,193)
451-600 = 3,990 (7,183- 3,193)
441-450 =7,711

August 2, 2019 CRS distribution score range
601-1,200= 474
451-600= 6,821
441-450= 7,821

It means, in 9 days from 24th July to 2nd Aug, there were:

601-1,200 = 52profile/day (474/9)
451-600 =314prof/day(6,821-3,990=2,831/9)
441-450 =20prof/day (7,821-7,711=263/13)

So, by 12th August, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 =994 (474+520 (52x10days)
451-600 =9,961(6,821+3140(314x10days))
441-450 = 8,021(7,821+ 200(20x10days))

After 12th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 466, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-994=2,606)
451-600 = 4,215 (6,821- 2,606)
441-450 =8,021

Note: As cut off was 466, it means that the 4,215 left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-466 only.

August 15, 2019 CRS score range
601-1,200 =127
451-600 =7,038
441-450 =8,084

It means, in 3 days from 12th Aug to 15th Aug, there were:

601-1,200 = 42profile/day (127/3)
451-600 =941prof/day(7,038-4,215=2,813/3)
441-450 =21prof/day (8,084-8,021=63/3)

As 941 profile per day is too high in range of 451-600, I will use previous 314 profile/day instead to calculate the profile added after 15 Aug to 20 Aug


So, by 20th August, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 =337 (127+210(42x5days)
451-600 =8,608(7,038+1,570(314x5days))
441-450 = 8,189(8,084+ 105(21x5days))

After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189

Note: As cut off was 457, it means that the 5,345 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-457 only. Let's assume that 5,345 are distributed equally to 451-457 score range. Thus, it makes 5,345/7=763 profile per score.

So, by 3rd September, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 588 (42x 14days)
451-600 =10,055(5,345+4,396(314x14days))
441-450= 8,189(8,084+ 105(21x5days))

Suppose that from 4,396 newly added profile from 20th August to 3rd Sep, 2,198(50% of 4,396) are of score 458-600 and the other half are of 451-457 score range which will be distributed equally through. So, it makes 2,198/7=314 profile per score.

So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 455-457
3,600 minus:
588(601-1200)
2,198 (of 4,396 from 458-600 score range)
763(of 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)
51(of 314 in 457 score added after 20 Aug)

with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 454-456.
3,900 minus:
588(601-1200)
2,198 (of 4,396 from 458-600 score range)
763(of 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)
314(of 314 in 457 score added after 20 Aug)
37(of 763 in 456score left on 20 Aug)

My previous estimation for CRS distribution pool and cut off was for 3rd Sep. So, let's see if there will be any difference in cut off score range if I add one more day to the calculation.

After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189

Note: As cut off was 457, it means that the 5,345 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-457 only. Let's assume that 5,345 are distributed equally to 451-457 score range. Thus, it makes 5,345/7=763 profile per score.

So, by 4th September, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 630 (42x 15days)
451-600 =10,055(5,345+4,710(314x15days))
441-450= 8,399(8,084+315(21x15days))

Suppose that from 4710 newly added profile from 20th August to 4rd Sep, 2,355(50% of 4,710) are of score 458-600 and the other half are of 451-457 score range which will be distributed equally through. So, it makes 2,355/7=336 profile per score.

So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 455-457
3,600 minus:
-630(601-1200)
-2,355 (of 4,710 from 458-600 score range)
-615(of 763 from 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)

with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 455-457.
3,900 minus:
-630(601-1200)
-2,355(of 4,396 from 458-600 score range)
-763(of 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)
-152(of 336 in 457 score added after 20 Aug)


Cut off score estimation for 3,900 ITAs changed from 454-456 to 455-457.

So, it means that 300 increase in ITA numbers from 3,600 to 3,900 won't make any difference in cut off score according to this calculation/estimation.

 

[#EEC]

POF should be in your account for the entire period.

You can not pay fees out of POF that money you should have and it should not decrease until you land in canada. For Bank Statement you have to show POF required but you should also have money set aside to manage all fees although you dont have to show it that you have fees in your POF bank account you can pay from any other account that you have.

Can u share link where it says can't use money showed as proof of fund. ..

 

[peetur]

Around 11.30 to 12.30 Canadian time. That's what I noticed in earlier draws..it was between these time

What time zone???

 

[sunsunny]

Please add me at 458, thanks.

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on Sept 2, 2019 9:20 am UTC):-

• 460+ (Total 11): | dappy9: 1049 | yigitsk: 1025 | always1: 484 | dr.josemrod: 468 | vsfedotov: 467 | oddy4real: 467 | Vaibhav_1989: 465 | Dee1729: 463 | ACD: 462 | Leftarmover: 461 | ntachi: 461 |

• 455-460 (Total 57) – | PrynkP: 460 | Woqi114: 459 | Manish Patel: 459 | patel_d07: 459 | Milanarora: 457 | #EEC: 457 | Priyasehgal22: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | hamhk202: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | yg96: 457 | Thumper : 457 | ArijitRoy: 457 | Ankoorva: 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | missusd:456 | Akshay10: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Captain789: 456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | Indian dentist1: 456 | daksh1803: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | roadtofreedom16: 455 | greenshma_aju: 455 | aagosh6188: 455 | cdddelhi: 455 |

• 454-450 (Total 55) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | SG1507: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | thatguy1: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | faith_works: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Canadaball: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 | tanveer041: 450 |

• 445-449 (Total 64) - Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | ssimmigration19: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | tonyzz: 448 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | prince_lords:445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 | Vibuthi: 445 |

• 441-444 (Total 44)- Shaanoh: 444 | NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| Lena32: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | Sony K Koshy: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |

• 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435

• Below 435 (Total 7) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | Kleverveld: 428 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421

Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.
Good luck everyone for Sept3rd/4th draw!!!!

 

[hamhk202]

I'm eagerly waiting for 11:00-12:00 UTC!

 

[nikhil_pal]

Please add me at 458, thanks.

Add me in too with CRS 449

 

[Priyanka2010]

Still no maintenance notice. Is there always a notice before a draw or there are exceptions? This is making me so nervous.

 

[nikhil_pal]

Is this year any chance for CRS 449 sitting in the pool since June 2019.

 

[fperk_83]

Still no maintenance notice. Is there always a notice before a draw or there are exceptions? This is making me so nervous.

Why always before the draw is any any maintainence notice or what

 

[rajapanesar]

My previous estimation for CRS distribution pool and cut off was for 3nd Sep. So, let's see if there will be any difference in cut off score range if I add one more day to the calculation.

After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189

Note: As cut off was 457, it means that the 5,345 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-457 only. Let's assume that 5,345 are distributed equally to 451-457 score range. Thus, it makes 5,345/7=763 profile per score.

So, by 4th September, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 630 (42x 15days)
451-600 =10,055(5,345+4,710(314x15days))
441-450= 8,399(8,084+315(21x15days))

Suppose that from 4710 newly added profile from 20th August to 4rd Sep, 2,355(50% of 4,710) are of score 458-600 and the other half are of 451-457 score range which will be distributed equally through. So, it makes 2,355/7=336 profile per score.

So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 455-457
3,600 minus:
-630(601-1200)
-2,355 (of 4,710 from 458-600 score range)
-615(of 763 from 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)

with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 455-457.
3,900 minus:
-630(601-1200)
-2,355(of 4,396 from 458-600 score range)
-763(of 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)
-152(of 336 in 457 score added after 20 Aug)


Cut off score estimation for 3,900 ITAs changed from 454-456 to 455-457.

So, it means that 300 increase in ITA numbers from 3,600 to 3,900 won't make any difference in cut off score according to this calculation/estimation.

300 won't make a difference today, but in the long term, it'll be beneficial for <450 candidates.

 

[Priyanka2010]

Why always before the draw is any any maintainence notice or what

That's what I have heard so asking senior members if that's the trend of ircc.

 

[hamhk202]

Still no maintenance notice. Is there always a notice before a draw or there are exceptions? This is making me so nervous.

What's the maintenance notice and where we can see it?