Ray of Hope - 125th Draw

[NikSharma01]

Pls house I have a question, is reference letter for spouse important to be submitted during application process?

Not required.

Thank you for pointing that out @imusi

I have been trying to find the reason for why the number of profiles decreased since morning and one possibility I could think of is that those 300+ profiles must have gotten PNP nominations so, their scores will obviously moved to the higher range(601-1200)

...And so, the number will enhance drastically before the upcoming draw, because majority of the July 12th NOI folks have already entered in the Decision In Progress - DIP stage and they're likely to get nominated within the few days. Taking this into consideration, the 600+ slot may witness a sudden rise in the PNP applicants, approximately 600-1000, which may affect the rapid fall of the draw cut-off.

 

[imusi]

Thank you for pointing that out @imusi

I have been trying to find the reason for why the number of profiles decreased since morning and one possibility I could think of is that those 300+ profiles must have gotten PNP nominations so, their scores will obviously moved to the higher range(601-1200)

You’ve provided one possible reason but .. as I checked immitracker for OINP case status and noticed 2 interesting facts...
1) for July 12 and later OINP
NOIs, very seldom NOI with 450+ CRS are accepted & submitted by far, seems people with 450+ are hesitating & observing the trend
2) for May 31 NOIs most were approved with very few DIP; however for July 12 NOIs, no nominations issued yet but many on DIP stage since 1st week of August.

Based on the 2 facts above, the numbers of profiles moving from 451-600 to 601+ in this 8 days period should be very minimum. However we might see some such impact on next draw if it’s on Sep 4...

 

[Philips49]

Pls how true is this? Only family member gift deed is accepted by CIC

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

Anyone?

Get a new passport asap even if you need to get it urgently. Use the new passport to apply. It will make your life easy post AOR passport change is complicated. You Where are you based? I know that in pakistan one can get urgent passport (double the normal fee) with 7-10 Working days maximum go for urgent option if it is available in your country etc

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

Below are my estimation of CRS distribution and cut off score for 3rd Sep draw if it hapens on that date.

After 24th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-407=3,193)
451-600 = 3,990 (7,183- 3,193)
441-450 =7,711

August 2, 2019 CRS distribution score range
601-1,200= 474
451-600= 6,821
441-450= 7,821

It means, in 9 days from 24th July to 2nd Aug, there were:

601-1,200 = 52profile/day (474/9)
451-600 =314prof/day(6,821-3,990=2,831/9)
441-450 =20prof/day (7,821-7,711=263/13)

So, by 12th August, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 =994 (474+520 (52x10days)
451-600 =9,961(6,821+3140(314x10days))
441-450 = 8,021(7,821+ 200(20x10days))

After 12th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 466, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-994=2,606)
451-600 = 4,215 (6,821- 2,606)
441-450 =8,021

Note: As cut off was 466, it means that the 4,215 left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-466 only.

August 15, 2019 CRS score range
601-1,200 =127
451-600 =7,038
441-450 =8,084

It means, in 3 days from 12th Aug to 15th Aug, there were:

601-1,200 = 42profile/day (127/3)
451-600 =941prof/day(7,038-4,215=2,813/3)
441-450 =21prof/day (8,084-8,021=63/3)

As 941 profile per day is too high in range of 451-600, I will use previous 314 profile/day instead to calculate the profile added after 15 Aug to 20 Aug


So, by 20th August, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 =337 (127+210(42x5days)
451-600 =8,608(7,038+1,570(314x5days))
441-450 = 8,189(8,084+ 105(21x5days))

After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189

Note: As cut off was 457, it means that the 5,345 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-457 only. Let's assume that 5,345 are distributed equally to 451-457 score range. Thus, it makes 5,345/7=763 profile per score.

So, by 3rd September, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 588 (42x 14days)
451-600 =9,741(5,345+4,396(314x14days))
441-450= 8,189(8,084+ 105(21x5days))

Suppose that from 4,396 newly added profile from 20th August to 3rd Sep, 2,198(50% of 4,396) are of score 458-600 and the other half are of 451-457 score range which will be distributed equally through. So, it makes 2,198/7=314 profile per score.

So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 455-457
3,600 minus:
588(601-1200)
2,198 (of 4,396 from 458-600 score range)
763(of 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)
51(of 314 in 457 score added after 20 Aug)

with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 454-456.
3,900 minus:
588(601-1200)
2,198 (of 4,396 from 458-600 score range)
763(of 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)
314(of 314 in 457 score added after 20 Aug)
37(of 763 in 456score left on 20 Aug)

Thanks!!!! Hoping your predictions come true. Hopefully I will have 458 CRS ny 4 Sept

 

[robin6869]

right now I am at 448 and will jump to 459 in March Work permit till July 2020. Is it safe to wait for March or will need to get lmia from current employer

 

[tobyortobias]

Any chance there will be a draw next week? they have done it before; three draws have been conducted three weeks in a row then it went back to normal bi-weekly
I am at 453 now!!! i think if there s gonna be a draw next week,cut off would drop under 452/1/0

 

[Punitsingh]

Pls how true is this? Only family member gift deed is accepted by CIC

True as per my knowledge and either of parents is more convincing instead of siblings
If u planning to get money from someone else, then first deposit in ur parent’s account and then to urs

 

[Punitsingh]

right now I am at 448 and will jump to 459 in March Work permit till July 2020. Is it safe to wait for March or will need to get lmia from current employer

Nobody can give any guarantee or safety.
Don’t wait, Get Lmia or whatever it takes to increase ur score.

 

[Philips49]

True as per my knowledge and either of parents is more convincing instead of siblings
If u planning to get money from someone else, then first deposit in ur parent’s account and then to urs

Thanks

 

[Twindream]

I am at 457, didn’t get ITA because of the tie break. However, I am really looking forward to the next draw.
Please advise, is it necessary to create job bank profile before getting an ITA or it can be done post that?
If it is to be done before that are these two linked in any manner? As in, do we have to mention reference id anywhere? @13nitinsharma @Punitsingh @Angel1113

 

[#EEC]

I am at 457, didn’t get ITA because of the tie break. However, I am really looking forward to the next draw.
Please advise, is it necessary to create job bank profile before getting an ITA or it can be done post that?
If it is to be done before that are these two linked in any manner? As in, do we have to mention reference id anywhere? @13nitinsharma @Punitsingh @Angel1113

It's not compulsory but what's harm in doing so.. .may be it can bring u some good opportunity. ..

 

[Importantguy]

Then your wes should show two degrees ? Doesn't it ?

I don't know about that but I have filled these two qualifications in wes evalution. So, waiting for the evaluation result.

 

[Importantguy]

What is the ECA report then, didn't it give you an undergraduate diploma and graduation degree?
If yes, then you should be good for 2 or more degrees and hence scoring 460+.

I have filled both the qualifications and now waiting for report. But, to be honest, I literally know nothing about this "2 or more degrees" category.

 

[rajapanesar]

I have filled both the qualifications and now waiting for report. But, to be honest, I literally know nothing about this "2 or more degrees" category.

Let the ECA be with you then. You'll know what I mean.
In the meantime, read this.
Select Comprehensive Ranking System in the drop down at bottom.