Ray of Hope - 124th Draw

[ankchat]

So, question -> do we expect the pattern to go back to what it was in 2018?
Has this year been different in terms of frequency or quota of seats per draw? -> is this sudden drastic change really because of only US refusing visas.. or because this is election year?

Lastly, can someone please take pains to explain PNP process? As I understand, profiles in Express entry are only considered .. no separate process..

Is there an intelligent way to go about doing this to enable a provincial invitation?

 

[riddymon]

So, question -> do we expect the pattern to go back to what it was in 2018?
Has this year been different in terms of frequency or quota of seats per draw? -> is this sudden drastic change really because of only US refusing visas.. or because this is election year?

Lastly, can someone please take pains to explain PNP process? As I understand, profiles in Express entry are only considered .. no separate process..

Is there an intelligent way to go about doing this to enable a provincial invitation?

PNP is separate from express entry but tied to express entry at the same time. If that makes sense. You can create your express entry profile and sit in the queue...however, you can apply separately for PNP and successfully receiving PNP and accepting will automatically update your express entry profile with an extra 600 points. That's why getting PNP guarantees an invitation. 600 is an extremely good score in and of itself (pretty much guarantees getting an invite), so adding that to your existing score is just a way to push your profile to the top of the queue with a 900-1000+ score.

 

[robin6869]

Guys there is no good prediction after these unusual draws but still I think two point we should consider.

1. Even though cic skipped few days after wednesday to release the draw but still pool distribution shows till 2nd august. like 5 days ago from 7th august. It seems like they were supposed to release draw on 7th but could not due to some trouble.

2. Last year FSt draw in Sept did not affect regular draws at all and there were two draw in election month last time.

Considering above I think there will be draw on 21st august and FSt draw will not mess regular draws and CRS pattern in future.
All we need is new government will not bring drastic changes to EE and scores will drop rapidly in december like last year. All people got PNP have jumped from 445/448/450/452 to 955/948/950/952. So that will be responsible for higher cut off for next few draws but eventually they are escaped from the pile leading less density in between so I think 3900 ITA for last 4-5 draws and one B2B will give some relief for sure.

 

[Hasrat123]

Be positive ! Next draw will be on 14th August. And crs will be 450

 

[Midnight Blessing]

@NikSharma01, @Punitsingh, other experts

What is the %of chance we have logically to see a draw on 21st? Pls share what do you guys feel?


Hum logo k dil me angare uchalrahi hain, tum log koi to acche khbr sunao yaar (

 

[robin6869]

Be positive ! Next draw will be on 14th August. And crs will be 450

all we can have is ray of hope not the magic mate! It will take time but new year will bring everything back to normal

 

[robin6869]

@NikSharma01, @Punitsingh, other experts

What is the %of chance we have logically to see a draw on 21st? Pls share what do you guys feel?


Hum logo k dil me angare uchalrahi hain, tum log koi to acche khbr sunao yaar (

I am not an expert but I think there will be draw on 21 CRS 462 +/- 1 with 3600 ITA
In November hopefully we see 3900 ITA and B2B draw in January to cover all lost ITAs, that will bring CRS to 450s range till next gap in May

 

[ripul]

I am not an expert but I think there will be draw on 21 CRS 462 +/- 1 with 3600 ITA
In November hopefully we see 3900 ITA and B2B draw in January to cover all lost ITAs, that will bring CRS to 450s range till next gap in May

Agree.

 

[Punitsingh]

@NikSharma01, @Punitsingh, other experts

What is the %of chance we have logically to see a draw on 21st? Pls share what do you guys feel?


Hum logo k dil me angare uchalrahi hain, tum log koi to acche khbr sunao yaar (

Next draw can happen on 21st or 28th both, below are the supporting points

In favour of 21st Aug:
1. In 12th Aug draw, data shown up to 2nd Aug, means there was a plan to conduct draw on 7th Aug and then on 21st Aug, but 7th Aug draw got delayed

2. Cic could have easily conducted draw on 28th by conducting last draw on 14th, why was there a need to have draw on Monday

3. If we consider last draw as a delayed draw of 7th Aug , then next is on 21st

4. If we consider last draw as an advanced draw of 14th Aug then it is a 3 week gap likely to be followed by b2b draw

5. There are below events approaching:
FST draw in Sep
Elections in Oct

If cic has a margin for a 3 week gap then it would be better to save it for above mentioned 2 events rather than wasting it in Aug

In favour of 28th Aug:
1. Cic has an habit to create a gap after 4-5 regular draws,
Apart from this habit, Don’t see any logic, this would be an unnecessary gap without achieving FST or handling election busy schedule

 

[Philips49]

I keep hearing this October election, does it mean there won’t be draw in October ? How does it affect the draw ? QUOTE="Punitsingh, post: 8089628, member: 780016"]Next draw can happen on 21st or 28th both, below are the supporting points

In favour of 21st Aug:
1. In 12th Aug draw, data shown up to 2nd Aug, means there was a plan to conduct draw on 7th Aug and then on 21st Aug, but 7th Aug draw got delayed

2. Cic could have easily conducted draw on 28th by conducting last draw on 14th, why was there a need to have draw on Monday

3. If we consider last draw as a delayed draw of 7th Aug , then next is on 21st

4. If we consider last draw as an advanced draw of 14th Aug then it is a 3 week gap likely to be followed by b2b draw

5. There are below events approaching:
FST draw in Sep
Elections in Oct

If cic has a margin for a 3 week gap then it would be better to save it for above mentioned 2 events rather than wasting it in Aug

In favour of 28th Aug:
1. Cic has an habit to create a gap after 4-5 regular draws,
Apart from this habit, Don’t see any logic, this would be an unnecessary gap without achieving FST or handling election busy schedule[/QUOTE]
I

 

[tharibak]

Hello. Urgent Help!!! My husband's birthday is on 29th of October. For now we have 456 marks but after his birthday our marks will be 551. Can some one tell me that if we get the invitation on October before his birthday, still do we need to submit all the documents before his birthday (Before marks deduction) ?

 

[Simmidas]

I do not see any logic of score coming down this year and this is really disheartening.

3300+ OINP pnp were given, there were only 474 people above 600 in this draw. Which means remaining will be distributed gradually to keep the scores high. Let's say 500 folks getting 600 additional points in every two weeks then this is quite good enough keep the score high for the next 3 months and by the time something else will happen which will again push the score up.

One thing is clear, CIC and PnP are working together. They are forcing people to accept the PnP and have a fair distribution of population all over Canada. With general Draw majority of folks would settle around Ontorio and remaining in British Columbia and then Alberta.

 

[Midnight Blessing]

Hello. Urgent Help!!! My husband's birthday is on 29th of October. For now we have 456 marks but after his birthday our marks will be 551. Can some one tell me that if we get the invitation on October before his birthday, still do we need to submit all the documents before his birthday (Before marks deduction) ?

If there ll be a draw on 21st August there is a good chance for the score to get down at your score by October consedering FST draw happens between 2 regular draws on September. Pls also try to improve the crs as much as possible too.

For now, let's pray so that we can see a draw on 21st August.

 

[lazarus]

Hello. Urgent Help!!! My husband's birthday is on 29th of October. For now we have 456 marks but after his birthday our marks will be 551. Can some one tell me that if we get the invitation on October before his birthday, still do we need to submit all the documents before his birthday (Before marks deduction) ?

There is a para in the ITA, which reads as under :


NOTE: If you had a birthday since we sent you this invitation, and the change to your age decreases your points total, this will not cause us to refuse your application for permanent residence.

 

[Dheana90]

Please share your predictions for next draw. @NikSharma01 @Punitsingh @Dheana90 @Angel1113 @13nitinsharma

I know it is too early but even the rough idea will be appreciated. This might bring relief to all of us under 460.

My cut off score estimation for 21st Aug based on the CRS score distribution.

After 24th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-407=3,193)
451-600 = 3,990 (7,183- 3,193)
441-450 =7,711

Note : As the cut off on 24th July draw was 459, it means the 3,990 profiles left in the pool are those who have score of 451-459 only.

Aug 2nd CRS distributions were:
601-1,200 =474
451-600 =6,827
441-450 =7,821

It means, in 10 days from 24th July to 2nd Aug, there were:

601-1,200 = 47profile/day (474/10)
451-600 =283pr/day(6,827-3,990=2,837/10)
441-450 =11profile/day (7,821-7,711=110/10)

By 12th Aug, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =944 (474+ 470(47x10days))
451-600 =9,657(6,827+ 2830(283x10))
441-450 = 7,931(7,821+ 110(11x10))

Note: 9,657 - 3,990 = 5,667 profile added between 2nd and 12th August are those who have score 466-600.

After 12th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-944=2,656)
451-600 = 7,001(9,657- 2,656)
441-450 =7,931

Note: 7001 includes 3,990 candidates who have score 451-459 left from 24th July draw. As the cut off score was 466, it mean 7001-3,990 =3,011 other remaining profiles are those who have score 466-600.

So, by 21th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 = 423(47x9days)
451-600 =9,548(7,001+2,547(283x9days))
441-450 = 8,030(7,931+ 99(11x9days))

Assume that from 2,547 newly added profile between 12th-21th Aug in 451-600 score range, half are those who have score 451-465 and half have 466-600.

If CIC issues 3,600 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 465-466
3,600 minus:
423 (601-1200)
3,011 ( 466-600 left from 12th August draw)
166 ( of 1.274 from 466-600 newly added profile)

If CIC issues 3,900 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 464-466.
3,900 minus:
423 (601-1200)
3,011 ( 466-600 left from 12th August draw)
466( of 1,274 from 466-600 newly added profile up to 21st Aug).

If CIC issues 4,000 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 464-466.
4,000 minus:
423 (601-1200)
3,011 ( 466-600 left from 12th August draw)
566( of 1,274 from 466-600 newly added profile up to 21st Aug).

Note: There is a big chance of more nomination from OINP will be approved from today and before the next draw so, the number of 1000+ scores will increase as well.