Ok. Correction guys and thanks
@EnthuChap for pointing it out.
After the 12th August draw CRS distribution data, I suppose to write on the following
"NOTE" From 7,001 of 451-600 score range, 3,990 were those in 451-459 range left from 24th July draw and the rest of 3,011 will be of score 451-466 only
Not 466-600.
Let's assume that from 3,011, 70% of it (2,108) will be in range of 460-466 and 30% (903) will be in 451-459 range.
So, by 21th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 = 423(47x9days)
451-600 =9,548(7,001+2,547(283x9days))
441-450 = 8,030(7,931+ 99(11x9days))
Let's also assume that from 2,547 newly added profile between 12th-21th Aug in 451-600 score range, 1,783(70%) are those who have score 460-600 and 764(30%) are of 451-459 range.
If CIC issues 3,600 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 463-464
3,600 minus:
-423 (601-1200)
-1,783 (466-600 newly added profile)
-1,394(of 2,108 in 460-466 range left from 12th August draw)
If CIC issues 3,900 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 462-463.
3,900 minus:
-423 (601-1200)
-1,783 (466-600 newly added profile)
-1,694(of 2,108 in 460-466 range left from 12th August draw)
If CIC issues 4,000 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 462-463.
4,000 minus:
-423 (601-1200)
-1,783 (466-600 newly added profile)
-1,794(of 2,108 in 460-466 range left from 12th August draw)
I used same logic as yours but slightly different assumption in score distribution, and my calculations are as following:
July 24 after draw:
[451-600] = [451-459] = 3990;
Aug 12 before draw:
[451-600] = 9657.
Meaning, from July 24 - Aug 12, new adding [451-600] = 9657 - 3990 = 5667,
among which, 2656 were [466-600] (as 2656 received ITA on Aug 12).
So from July 24 - Aug 12,
[466-600]% of [451-600] is 2656/5667 = 47%;
i.e. in the same period,
[451-465] = 5667-2656 = 3011.
After Aug 12 draw:
[451-465] = 7001, among which at least 3990 are [451-459] left from July 24, so at most [460-465] = 3011
—————— Draw on Aug 21
By Aug 21
[451-600] = 9548, among which 2547 are from Aug 12-21.
ASSUME still 47% will be [466-600], then:
[466-600] = 2547*47% = 1197
[451-465] = 1350 new + 7001 old = 8351
SUPPOSE:
1) all the [451-465] from July 24 - Aug 12 are [460-465], i.e. [460-465] = 3011;
2) all the [451-465] from Aug 12-21 are [460-465], i.e. [460-465] = 1350;
(which are both the worst cases) then:
By Aug 21, distribution will be:
[600+] = 423;
[466-600] = 1197;
[460-465] = 3011 + 1350 = 4361 at most;
[451-459] = 3990 at least (left from July 24 draw).
So if 3600 ITA, Aug 21 draw will clear 3600 - 423 - 1197 = 1980 of [460-465] which is 45.4% of the 4361 [460-465].
SUPPOSE profile distribution of each score is even, then cut off will be
465 - 6*45.4% = 465 - 2.72 = 463 with about 28% [463] left in the pool.
Since these [463] are all added after July 24, and SUPPOSE equal [463] profiles everyday in the 28 days, then tiebreaker will be Aug 21 - (28*28%) = ~ Aug 13.
And leaves in the pool,
[460-463] = 2381
[451-459] = 3990.
And this is almost the worst case.
(If 3900 ITA, cut-off will be 462 with only 15% of [462] cleared, i.e. tiebreaker will be ~July 28. Not much a difference.)
—————— Draw on Aug 28
By Aug 28,
[451-600] = 11529, among which 4528 are from Aug 12-28.
ASSUME still 47% will be [466-600], then:
[466-600] = 4528*47% = 2128
[451-465] = 2400 new + 7001 old = 9401
SUPPOSE:
1) all the [451-465] from July 24 - Aug 12 are [460-465], i.e. [460-465] = 3011;
2) all the [451-465] from Aug 12-28 are [460-465], i.e. [460-465] = 2400;
(which are both the worst cases) then:
By Aug 28, distribution will be:
[600+] = 752;
[466-600] = 2128;
[460-465] = 3011 + 2400 = 5411 at most;
[451-459] = 3990 at least (left from July 24 draw).
So if 3600 ITA, Aug 28 draw will clear 3600 - 752 - 2128 = 720 of [460-465] which is 13.3% of the 5411 [460-465].
SUPPOSE profile distribution of each score is even, then cut off will be
465 - 6*13.3% = 465 - 0.80 = 465 with about 20% [465] left in the pool.
Since these [465] are all added after July 24, and SUPPOSE equal [465] profiles everyday in the 35 days, then tiebreaker will be Aug 28 - (35*20%) = ~ Aug 20-21.
And leaves in the pool,
[460-465] = 4691
[451-459] = 3990.
And this is still almost the worst case.
(If 3900 ITA, cut-off will be 464 with only 13% of [464] cleared, i.e. tiebreaker will be ~July 28. Still not much a difference.)
———————————
So my predictions are:
If nothing changes significantly (e.g. massive influx of [466+] etc.)
Aug 21 draw with 3600 ITA:
Cut-off NO HIGHER THAN 463 with tiebreaker around Aug 13;
Aug 21 draw with 3900 ITA (very unlikely):
Cut-off NO HIGHER THAN 462 with tiebreaker around July 28;
Aug 28 draw with 3600 ITA:
Cut-off NO HIGHER THAN 465 with tiebreaker around Aug 20;
Aug 28 draw with 3900 ITA (very unlikely):
Cut-off NO HIGHER THAN 464 with tiebreaker around July 28.
Remember these predictions are based on almost the worst scenarios and that’s why I highlighted ‘no higher than’.
However, sadly, it does seem that
cut-off will remain at 460+ by mid Sep. For people with 458 and 459, the 2nd FSW draw of Sep might be the closest chance. Or maybe even later. As many agree there might be some uncertainties from Oct onwards because of the election, if one wants to receive an ITA before end of Sep, 460+ seems safer.
Considering the majority of OINP tech draw haven’t got their 600 pts by far, if most OINP tech draw got their approvals in Sep, even 460 might not be safe by Sep.
