Ray of Hope - 123rd Draw

[shivamtiwari93]

Hey everyone!

There is one principal issue that I have with the way things are going. Please help me understand this.

Canada has an immigration target of 330800 out of which 191,600 is from ExpressEntry (FSW, FST, etc) and PNP. Source: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigratio...es/supplementary-immigration-levels-2019.html

ITAs issued under Express Entry till date: 49,000 Source: https://www.cicnews.com/2019/07/lar...an-permanent-residence-0712542.html#gs.vdkj4l

So basically this means in the next 10 draws before the end of the year additional 191600 - 49000 = 142600 ITAs need to be issued
Assuming biweekly draw, size of each draw would be 142600/10 = 14260 ITAs per draw!!!!
Assuming draws in all weeks, size of each draw would be 142600/20 = 7130 ITAs per draw!!!!

And yet we see IRCC skipping draws. It just doesn't add up. Is there anyone who has a better insight into the situation?

 

[shivarora]

does secondary applicant birthday have an impact on overall crs score? I am secondary applicant and have a birthday in september.

 

[Kenneth89]

does secondary applicant birthday have an impact on overall crs score? I am secondary applicant and have a birthday in september.

No

 

[Silverwitch]

Guys I think maintenance notice is up for 13th Aug

 

[vgm10689]

Hey everyone!

There is one principal issue that I have with the way things are going. Please help me understand this.

Canada has an immigration target of 330800 out of which 191,600 is from ExpressEntry (FSW, FST, etc) and PNP. Source: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigratio...es/supplementary-immigration-levels-2019.html

ITAs issued under Express Entry till date: 49,000 Source: https://www.cicnews.com/2019/07/lar...an-permanent-residence-0712542.html#gs.vdkj4l

So basically this means in the next 10 draws before the end of the year additional 191600 - 49000 = 142600 ITAs need to be issued
Assuming biweekly draw, size of each draw would be 142600/10 = 14260 ITAs per draw!!!!
Assuming draws in all weeks, size of each draw would be 142600/20 = 7130 ITAs per draw!!!!

And yet we see IRCC skipping draws. It just doesn't add up. Is there anyone who has a better insight into the situation?

Not all PNP candidates go through express entry system. Those that are linked to the express entry system will receive from the federal or provincial draws which invite the majority of the PNP candidates. Atleast that's me haphazard understanding, someone else can correct me on this. Of that 49000 I'd take a wild guess that 8000 are PNP. I can't seem to find data on the rest of PNPs invited directly by the province.


EDIT: https://www.cicnews.com/2019/07/mor...-2018-new-report-shows-0712457.html#gs.vdwunf

A total of 10,802 Express Entry candidates with a provincial nomination received an ITA in 2018, up from 8,733 the year before.

This amounted to 12 per cent of all ITAs issued in 2018, which was consistent with the proportion of Express Entry candidates who had a provincial nomination in 2017.

If its 12% then 5880 of 49000 are probably PNP ITAs
So that might leave 81400-49000-5880 = 26520 ITAs for FSW, FST and CEC programs

 

[Kenneth89]

Guys I think maintenance notice is up

Where did u get that?

 

[Kenneth89]

Guys I think maintenance notice is up for 13th Aug

Where did u get that, pls share the site

 

[Punitsingh]

2018 draws patterns:
Total draws: 25
Mon draws: 3
Tue draws: 1
Thu draws: 2
Total non-wed draw: 6
B2b draw: 1
3 week gap: 2 (none followed by b2b, instead, followed by next Mon and Tue draw) edited

2019 pattern:
Total draws till now: 14
Thu draws: 1
Total non-wed draw: 1
B2b draw: 1
3 week gap: 2 (3rd in progress)
4 week gap: 1

Nothing positive has been done this year, so expecting only something positive soon

 

[Sharath957]

2018 draws patterns:
Total draws: 25
Mon draws: 3
Tue draws: 1
Thu draws: 2
Total non-wed draw: 6
B2b draw: 1
3 week gap: 2 (none followed by b2b, instead, followed by next Mon and Tue draw, so we have good probability of seeing a draw before coming Wed)

2019 pattern:
Total draws till now: 14
Thu draws: 1
Total non-wed draw: 1
B2b draw: 1
3 week gap: 2 (3rd in progress)
4 week gap: 1

Nothing positive has been done this year, so expecting only something positive soon

There has to be back to back draws if the Government has to follow there own targets

 

[Punitsingh]

There has to be back to back draws if the Government has to follow there own targets

Unfortunately not necessary.
They can achieve targets by issuing 3600 ITA in next 10 draws
49000 + 36000= 85000

 

[Silverwitch]

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/application/account.html

 

[Sharath957]

Unfortunately not necessary.
They can achieve targets by issuing 3600 ITA in next 10 draws
49000 + 36000= 85000

Last year they took 89400

 

[Punitsingh]

2018 draws patterns:
Total draws: 25
Mon draws: 3
Tue draws: 1
Thu draws: 2
Total non-wed draw: 6
B2b draw: 1
3 week gap: 2 (none followed by b2b, instead, followed by next Mon and Tue draw, so we have good probability of seeing a draw before coming Wed)

2019 pattern:
Total draws till now: 14
Thu draws: 1
Total non-wed draw: 1
B2b draw: 1
3 week gap: 2 (3rd in progress)
4 week gap: 1

Nothing positive has been done this year, so expecting only something positive soon

Looks like 2019 is paying for the extra ITAs issued in 2018

 

[Kenneth89]

Looks like 2019 is paying for the extra ITAs issued in 2018

I guess from next draw the ITAs will increase to 3750,I don't think 2019 is paying for extra ITAs giving in 2018,if that's the case 2018 would have played for the ones issued in 2017 and beside CIC has their target and I believe that is what they are working towards.

 

[bhanu1986]

I guess from next draw the ITAs will increase to 3750,I don't think 2019 is paying for extra ITAs giving in 2018,if that's the case 2018 would have played for the ones issued in 2017 and beside CIC has their target and I believe that is what they are working towards.

next draw on Wednesday ...maintenance notice up