Very good calculations dear as always! However, talking about the predictions, I highly doubt that the cut-off will be 459-460 considering the 3 weeks long gap. I wish I could be wrong, but unfortunately this another delay of odd weeks in the draws will shoot the cut-off to 464+ with 3600 ITAs.As the draw didn't take place yesterday. I will calculate the estimation of CRS score distribution in pool until next Wednesday.
So, by 14th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 =609 (29x21days)
451-600 =8,148(3,990+4158(198x21days))
441-450 = 8,299(7,711 + 588(28x21days))
With 3,600 ITA the cut off score will approximately 459-460
3,600 minus:
609(601-1200)
2500(of 4158 may have score 600-461)
491(of 558 from 4158 (may have 460 score)
with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 458-459.
3,900 minus:
609(601-1200)
2500(from 4158 maybe have score 600-461)
558(of 558 from 4158 may have score 460)
233(of 550 from 24th July draw with 459score)
Note: there might be more of OINP PNP candidates who will receive nomination before the next week's draw (score 1,000+). Therefore, the cut off score will be much higher as well.
The primary reason is the growing density of 460+ applicants, which is being accumulated consistently every other day! Also the pending nominations of May 2019, being approved, may have another effect, albeit slight.! CIC is really playing around with us!!