Ray of Hope - 123rd Draw

[Midnight Blessing]

CIC website says,

Language tests
Check that your language test results are valid. They are valid for 2 years after the date of the test result. They must also be valid on the date you apply for permanent residence.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/submit-profile/waiting-pool.html

but in the ielts certificate it is written that IELTS is valid for 2 yrs from the test date and also many people in this forum is also saying that it is valid from the test date. I am very confused now :/

 

[imusi]

but in the ielts certificate it is written that IELTS is valid for 2 yrs from the test date and also many people in this forum is also saying that it is valid from the test date. I am very confused now :/

If I were you I would follow CIC website instructions as they are the decision makers.

However test date and result date are pretty close... not a significant difference I would say. I also heard from others who were asked for additional documents of new IELTS results post ITA or even post AOR... Anyway if your IELTS result is expiring soon, I would strongly suggest you re-sit at least one month before the expiration to minimize any risk. The safer the better.

 

[Midnight Blessing]

If I were you I would follow CIC website instructions as they are the decision makers.

However test date and result date are pretty close... not a significant difference I would say. I also heard from others who were asked for additional documents of new IELTS results post ITA or even post AOR... Anyway if your IELTS result is expiring soon, I would strongly suggest you re-sit at least one month before the expiration to minimize any risk. The safer the better.

thanks. the people who were asked for new test results had their AOR before this expiry date or after ? i mean isnt ielts results get locked once someone gets AOR before the expiry date which is 2 years after the results date ?

 

[imusi]

thanks. the people who were asked for new test results had their AOR before this expiry date or after ? i mean isnt ielts results get locked once someone gets AOR before the expiry date which is 2 years after the results date ?

CIC website says it’s ‘locked’ after e-APR (AOR):

They must also be valid on the date you apply for permanent residence.


However I am pretty sure I’ve read at least one thread by a poor guy who was asked for an updated IELTS results after AOR. Can’t remember the details but I think he mentioned he was asked for ADR several months after AOR. All rights reserved by IRCC, I guess .

 

[Dheana90]

CRS distribution estimation (441-1,200 range) and 7th August CRS cut off prediction are below:

July 5th CRS distribution are:
601-1,200 =312
451-600 =6,305
441-450 =7,169

It means, in 9 days from 26th June to 5th July, there were:

601-1,200 = 35profile/day (312/9)
451-600 =243prof/day(6305-4120=2185/9)
441-450 =30profile/day (7,169-6,895=274/9)

By 10th July, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =487 (312+ 175(35x5days))
451-600 =7,520(6,305+ 1,215(243x5))
441-450 = 7,319(7,169 + 150(30x5))

After the 10th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-487=3,113)
451-600 = 4,407 (7,520- 3,113)
441-450 =7,319

July 19th CRS distributions were:
601-1,200 =262
451-600 =6,193
441-450 =7,571

It means, in 9 days from 10th July to 19th July, there were:

601-1,200 = 29profile/day (262/9)
451-600 =198p'file/day(6,193-4,407=1,786/9)
441-450 =28profile/day (7,571-7,319=252/9)

By 24th July, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =407 (262+ 145(29x5days))
451-600 =7,183(6,193+ 990(198x5))
441-450 = 7,711(7,571+ 140(28x5))

After today, 24th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-407=3,193)
451-600 = 3,990 (7,183- 3,193)
441-450 =7,711

So, by 7th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 =406 (29x14days)
451-600 =6,762(3,990+2772(198x14days))
441-450 = 8,103(7,711 + 392(28x14days))

I estimated that with 3,990 candidates left in the range of 451-459,there were must be around 550 candidates having 459, maybe 800-1100 having 458 and the rest 2,340 are those between 451-457. By 7th August, there will be around 2772 candidates added to the pool in the score range of 451-600. Suppose from those, 1772 are having 458-600 points (772 of 459+ score and 1000 of 458 score) , and the other 1000 are having 451-457 points. Thus, if you added up 1,650 people having 458-459 from 24th July draw + 1772 people having 458-600 added until 7th August. Total is 3,422.

Thus, with 3,600 ITA the cut off score will approximately 457-458
3,600 minus:
406(601-1200)
550 (459 left from 24th July)
772(459+ up to 7th Aug)
1,100 (458 left from 24th July)
772 (1,000 of 458 score up to 7th Aug)

with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 456-457.
3,900 minus:
406(601-1200)
550 (459 left from 24th July)
772(459+ up to 7th Aug)
1,100 (458 left from 24th July)
1,000 (458 score up to 7th Aug)
72( 2,340 of 451-457 candidates left on 24th July).

As the draw didn't take place yesterday. I will calculate the estimation of CRS score distribution in pool until next Wednesday.

So, by 14th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 =609 (29x21days)
451-600 =8,148(3,990+4158(198x21days))
441-450 = 8,299(7,711 + 588(28x21days))

With 3,600 ITA the cut off score will approximately 459-460
3,600 minus:
609(601-1200)
2500(of 4158 may have score 600-461)
491(of 558 from 4158 (may have 460 score)


with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 458-459.
3,900 minus:
609(601-1200)
2500(from 4158 maybe have score 600-461)
558(of 558 from 4158 may have score 460)
233(of 550 from 24th July draw with 459score)

Note: there might be more of OINP PNP candidates who will receive nomination before the next week's draw (score 1,000+). Therefore, the cut off score will be much higher as well.

 

[imusi]

Hey everyone. I was just about to fall asleep and suddenly this thought strikes me.. CIC is skipping this ‘Aug 7’ draw intentionally, or to say they planned to do so and their reasons might be very simple:

So that the rest of the months in 2019 each have 2 draws in bi-weekly pattern.

Remember we have discussed that October has 5 Wednesdays and we wonder if 3 draws would take place in that month? Well now it won’t happen with current trend.

By skipping this week, the next draws will take place as following in perfect bi-weekly pattern:

Aug 14, Aug 28;
Sep 11, Sep 25;
Oct 9, Oct 23;
Nov 6, Nov 20;
Dec 4, Dec 18 (and public holiday Dec 25, also a Wednesday, no draw for sure).

I feel this could be the answer to this week’s delay. If I am right, then we’ll have 10 draws remaining this year. Anyone could help calculate how much ITAs per draw will help CIC reach their target?

 

[Dheana90]

Hey everyone. I was just about to fall asleep and suddenly this thought strikes me.. CIC is skipping this ‘Aug 7’ draw intentionally, or to say they planned to do so and their reasons might be very simple:

So that the rest of the months in 2019 each have 2 draws in bi-weekly pattern.

Remember we have discussed that October has 5 Wednesdays and we wonder if 3 draws would take place in that month? Well now it won’t happen with current trend.

By skipping this week, the next draws will take place as following in perfect bi-weekly pattern:

Aug 14, Aug 28;
Sep 11, Sep 25;
Oct 9, Oct 23;
Nov 6, Nov 20;
Dec 4, Dec 18 (and public holiday Dec 25, also a Wednesday, no draw for sure).

I feel this could be the answer to this week’s delay. If I am right, then we’ll have 10 draws remaining this year and is there anyone could help calculate how much ITAs per draw will help CIC reach their target?

What is CIC's targeted ITA in this years?

 

[yg96]

What is CIC's targeted ITA in this years?

85000

 

[Dheana90]

Hey everyone. I was just about to fall asleep and suddenly this thought strikes me.. CIC is skipping this ‘Aug 7’ draw intentionally, or to say they planned to do so and their reasons might be very simple:

So that the rest of the months in 2019 each have 2 draws in bi-weekly pattern.

Remember we have discussed that October has 5 Wednesdays and we wonder if 3 draws would take place in that month? Well now it won’t happen with current trend.

By skipping this week, the next draws will take place as following in perfect bi-weekly pattern:

Aug 14, Aug 28;
Sep 11, Sep 25;
Oct 9, Oct 23;
Nov 6, Nov 20;
Dec 4, Dec 18 (and public holiday Dec 25, also a Wednesday, no draw for sure).

I feel this could be the answer to this week’s delay. If I am right, then we’ll have 10 draws remaining this year. Anyone could help calculate how much ITAs per draw will help CIC reach their target?

85000

Ok. CIC have issued 49,000 ITAs in total to date (2x 3,900 + 1 x 500 FST draw + 10 x 3,3500 + 2 x 3,600).

85,000 - 49,000 = 36,000 ITA left to be issued in order to reach their target.

If CIC will continue to conduct 2 draws per month. Then, there will be 10 draws left until the end of this year. Therefore tp reach their target of 85,000, CIC have to continue to issue 3,600 ITA per draw (36,000/10). There is no need for an increase in ITA in order for CIC to reach their target.

 

[imusi]

What is CIC's targeted ITA in this years?

Did some quick research on CIC website and seems 2019 target for (FSW+FST+CEC) is 81400 in total.

Not sure if this is the correct / most updated info so I’ll just share the link here:

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2018.html

 

[imusi]

Ok. CIC have issued 49,000 ITAs in total to date (2x 3,900 + 1 x 500 FST draw + 10 x 3,3500 + 2 x 3,600).

85,000 - 49,000 = 36,000 ITA left to be issued in order to reach their target.

If CIC will continue to conduct 2 draws per month. Then, there will be 10 draws left until the end of this year. Therefore tp reach their target of 85,000, CIC have to continue to issue 3,600 ITA per draw (36,000/10). There is no need for an increase in ITA in order for CIC to reach their target.

What a perfect math... so 3600 each, 10 draws in total. Sounds convincing to me.

 

[Chuaxin1]

I just got a new IELTS results and it wasn’t good , even though I know I can improve to get 462 at max I’m not getting the scores. IELTS is very expensive and I’ve spent over USD$2.000 I didn’t plan trying to improve. Stuck at 453 I wish I had the score before May when it was a great number. I’m resigned to take the exam again

I just want to say don't lose hope because I was in the same situation as you before. I went into the pool at 451 and that was the time when the cut-off jumped to 470. I was so depressed and waited for the marks to drop, which it did, but in an extremely slow pace. So I decided to retake IELTS, I studied real hard for a month because my writing was 6.5 and I needed to boost it up to 7. I received LSRW: 8.5/7/8/6.5, but I didn't give up and took another test after another two weeks of studying and got LSRW: 8.5/7/9/8

Now my CRS score is 471.
Never give up, especially to those who are stuck at 6.5 on writing!

 

[James_bk_fun]

What a perfect math... so 3600 each, 10 draws in total. Sounds convincing to me.

I’d imagine they’ll keep to that approach and towards the end of the year have a view of how many ITA actually come through to PRs and adjust the invites accordingly depending on what their target entrants are.

They issued a fair few more ITAs than their target last year. In part that’s presumably to ensure enough people actually land per their targets

 

[Midnight Blessing]

CIC website says it’s ‘locked’ after e-APR (AOR):

They must also be valid on the date you apply for permanent residence.


However I am pretty sure I’ve read at least one thread by a poor guy who was asked for an updated IELTS results after AOR. Can’t remember the details but I think he mentioned he was asked for ADR several months after AOR. All rights reserved by IRCC, I guess .

https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ielts-expiry-date-results-date-or-test-date.474180/

People here saying that the result date meant actually by cic is the date test was taken not the date results was published. Pls see the link. I am totally confused now. What do you think?

 

[Midnight Blessing]

Did some quick research on CIC website and seems 2019 target for (FSW+FST+CEC) is 81400 in total.

Not sure if this is the correct / most updated info so I’ll just share the link here:

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2018.html

That's the target for PR not ITA. All the ita s don't convert to PR. Many get rejected.