Ray of Hope - 123rd Draw
- Thread starter 13nitinsharma
- Start date
Yes there will be an FST draw but it will be between 2 regular draws just like last year.
Sept 19, 2018 3500 invitations Sept 24, 2018 400 FST only and October 3, 2018 3900 invitations.... so no 4 week gap.
Lets assume if they go for another 3 to 4 week gap... How are they going to conduct remaining 12 including 1 for FST draw.... Only 5 months left in 2019.... Last year there were 27 draw( 25 regular and 2 FST program specific). Till date we have 15 draws and 49000 ITA’s issued.... what about rest of 12 draws and another 40,000 plus ITA’s? Even if they go for the same number of ITA’s as they issued in 2018..... they have to go for biweekly draws.
Really hope draw happens next week .I applied in may with CRS score of 459 but didn't get invitation in July 24th draw because of tie breaking rule and my work permit expires November 23rd .I was kind of sure will get it definitely on august 7th draw but now have no idea what is going to happen .
BC issues new PNPs
https://www.canadavisa.com/news/bc-issues-238-new-invitations-to-graduates-and-workers.html
PNPs raining...
https://www.canadavisa.com/news/bc-issues-238-new-invitations-to-graduates-and-workers.html
PNPs raining...
People are talking about the rise in CRS score for the next draw, however I also personally believe that when the CRS score rise from 450 to 470 at that time the last draw cutoff was 450 and thus time for the draw 122 cutoff was 459. In this case I do agree that CRS will rise owing to a gap of more than 2 week but not drastically as the one happened a few months back. What's your opinion?
keyur sharma
Hero Member
- Dec 3, 2016
- 190
- 34
- Category........
- CEC
- Job Offer........
- Yes
- Pre-Assessed..
- Yes
- App. Filed.......
- 1/07/2017
- Doc's Request.
- 12/08/2017
- Nomination.....
- 12/07/2017
- AOR Received.
- 12/08/2017
- IELTS Request
- 31/05/2017
- Med's Request
- 12/08/2017
- Med's Done....
- 12/09/2017
- Passport Req..
- 26/10/2017
- VISA ISSUED...
- 29/11/2017
- LANDED..........
- 30/11/2017
Ok. I know that our CRS internal tracker is not a real reflection of the actual CRS pool size but lets make some estimation calculation based on the internal tracker and my previous calculations.
Assume that by next Wednesday the 14th, there will be:
1000 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
500 of 462
500 of 460
1158 of 451-459.
If CIC issues 3,600 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 460.
3,600 minus:
1000 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
500 of 462
100 of 460
If CIC issues 3,900 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 460.
3,900 minus:
1000 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
500 of 462
400 of 460
If CIC issues 4,000 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 460.
3,600 minus:
1000 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
500 of 462
500 of 460
Suppose, there will be:
1500 of 1053+ score (PNP)
If CIC issues 3,600 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 462.
3,600 minus:
1,500 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
100 of 462
If CIC issues 3,900 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 462.
3,600 minus:
1,500 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
400 of 462
If CIC issues 4,000 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 462.
3,600 minus:
1,500 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
500 of 462
Not all of OINP Tech NOI receivers in June- July will apply for nominations straightaway. Especially those who are sitting at 457-460 as they were waiting for general draw and hoping to get ITA on 7th Aug. The PNP nominations who will be on next week draw probably those from some 31 May NOI and June NOI.( 30-60 days processing time). July NOI receiver (457-459) most likely chose to wait for ITA on 7th Aug which didn't happen. Those who have 456 and lower score will apply for nominations so there will be no PNP nomination from July NOI.
Last edited:
Yeah, I did the same thing few months back. But that time s/he hasn't put limitation on his audience I think. That's why I was able to click the ignore button, dear.
Last edited:
There has to be 3600/21= 171.42 per day addition of 465+ candidates if CRS going to be around 465 on 14th August, which is quite realistic.
For example, Rough idea of per day addition of 451+ is 280, from which it can be calculated that 465+ is 175
Hence CRS is going to lie somewhere 466 +/- 1
However I believe, ita can be 3900 hence CRS May drop further.
For example, Rough idea of per day addition of 451+ is 280, from which it can be calculated that 465+ is 175
Hence CRS is going to lie somewhere 466 +/- 1
However I believe, ita can be 3900 hence CRS May drop further.
However it will be interesting to see that when the last 3 week gap occurred at that time there was a 3350/21= 160 per day addition of 457+ candidates and now I am considering 172 per day addition of 465+ candidates
Midnight Blessing
Hero Member
- Mar 16, 2017
- 683
- Category........
- FSW
- Visa Office......
- SGVO
- Passport Req..
- 27-01-2022
- VISA ISSUED...
- 17-02-2022
thats a very logical and calculative representation of the ITA's and cutoffs my friend. well done. I just have a simple question, though you have used the internal tracker for finding out the distribution number but is there any logical derivation or past data analysis behind concluding that there will be around 2000 people from 463 to 500? This ll definitely determine what might be the cutoff next week.
Midnight Blessing
Hero Member
- Mar 16, 2017
- 683
- Category........
- FSW
- Visa Office......
- SGVO
- Passport Req..
- 27-01-2022
- VISA ISSUED...
- 17-02-2022
woah, thats scary. 170+ per day with 465+ is quite a daunting figure. bro, when do you think the cutoff can reach 463 again? whats your realistic assumption tells?