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Ray of Hope - 123rd Draw

jp3189n

Full Member
Sep 4, 2017
28
6
I know at this time everything is speculation but do you guys think there’s a chance for 453 in Jan 2020 before Feb 10?
 
Last edited:

Milanarora

Full Member
Mar 16, 2019
38
35
There will be an FST only draw which will be equivalent to a 4 week draw.
Yes there will be an FST draw but it will be between 2 regular draws just like last year.
Sept 19, 2018 3500 invitations Sept 24, 2018 400 FST only and October 3, 2018 3900 invitations.... so no 4 week gap.

Lets assume if they go for another 3 to 4 week gap... How are they going to conduct remaining 12 including 1 for FST draw.... Only 5 months left in 2019.... Last year there were 27 draw( 25 regular and 2 FST program specific). Till date we have 15 draws and 49000 ITA’s issued.... what about rest of 12 draws and another 40,000 plus ITA’s? Even if they go for the same number of ITA’s as they issued in 2018..... they have to go for biweekly draws.
 

hetashpatel7

Member
May 3, 2018
13
2
Really hope draw happens next week .I applied in may with CRS score of 459 but didn't get invitation in July 24th draw because of tie breaking rule and my work permit expires November 23rd .I was kind of sure will get it definitely on august 7th draw but now have no idea what is going to happen .
 

Ontherock

Star Member
Jul 21, 2019
76
22
One query...if I apply for reevaluation of writing of my latest IELTS score.....can I still go ahead with my express entry profile with the declared IELTS score ....
 

Mayureshdave

Full Member
Aug 8, 2019
20
2
People are talking about the rise in CRS score for the next draw, however I also personally believe that when the CRS score rise from 450 to 470 at that time the last draw cutoff was 450 and thus time for the draw 122 cutoff was 459. In this case I do agree that CRS will rise owing to a gap of more than 2 week but not drastically as the one happened a few months back. What's your opinion?
 

keyur sharma

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People are talking about the rise in CRS score for the next draw, however I also personally believe that when the CRS score rise from 450 to 470 at that time the last draw cutoff was 450 and thus time for the draw 122 cutoff was 459. In this case I do agree that CRS will rise owing to a gap of more than 2 week but not drastically as the one happened a few months back. What's your opinion?
If Draw is happening on Wednesday than CRS will be above 465
 

Dheana90

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Apr 8, 2019
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CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on July 29th 8:20 pm UTC):-
  • 460+ (Total 06): | Uchyann: 1053 | ntsharma: 484 | praveen22: 467 | Harsha009: 463 | Sumedh: 462 | Rose1207: 460 |
  • 455-460 (Total 60) – | nogachan301185: 459 | ExpressMan: 459 | Punit Singh: 459 | atuls: 459 | mehr_ibrahim: 459 | jaibajrangbali: 459 | imusi: 458 | Khanstan: 458 | Barinderpal: 458 | Kathy.m: 458 | SimAneja: 458 | hungta: 458 | MuibKhan: 458 | chirkut: 458 | Kenneth89: 458 | Herlo: 458 | vivi153: 458 | Dhaval Trivedi: 458 | jollystripes: 458 | jjk505: 458 | bhanu1986: 458 | Milanarora: 457 | jamlabhai: 457 | #EEC: 457 | Priyasehgal22: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | diaju:457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | yg96: 457 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | Teenz: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Angel1113: 456| missusd:456 | Akshay10: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | yigitsk: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 |
  • 454-450 (Total 48) - nadal87: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | SG1507: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | thatguy1: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | vivosvoco: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Woqi114: 451 | cdddelhi: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | tonydlaw24: 451 | Chuaxin1: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | mamuso: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 |
  • 445-449 (Total 62) - Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | dappy9: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 |nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | ssimmigration19: 449 | os32: 449 | patel_d07: 448 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | ArsheyaBegum: 447 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | prince_lords:445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445
  • 441-444 (Total 40)- Shaanoh: 444 | NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | nns14: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| Lena32: 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | tonyzz: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | Sony K Koshy: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441
  • 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435
  • Below 435 (Total 6) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421
Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.
If 1000 people gets nominated by next draw what ll be the cutoff that we might see?
Ok. I know that our CRS internal tracker is not a real reflection of the actual CRS pool size but lets make some estimation calculation based on the internal tracker and my previous calculations.

Assume that by next Wednesday the 14th, there will be:
1000 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
500 of 462
500 of 460
1158 of 451-459.

If CIC issues 3,600 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 460.
3,600 minus:
1000 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
500 of 462
100 of 460

If CIC issues 3,900 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 460.
3,900 minus:
1000 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
500 of 462
400 of 460

If CIC issues 4,000 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 460.
3,600 minus:
1000 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
500 of 462
500 of 460

Suppose, there will be:
1500 of 1053+ score (PNP)

If CIC issues 3,600 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 462.
3,600 minus:
1,500 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
100 of 462

If CIC issues 3,900 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 462.
3,600 minus:
1,500 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
400 of 462

If CIC issues 4,000 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 462.
3,600 minus:
1,500 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
500 of 462

Not all of OINP Tech NOI receivers in June- July will apply for nominations straightaway. Especially those who are sitting at 457-460 as they were waiting for general draw and hoping to get ITA on 7th Aug. The PNP nominations who will be on next week draw probably those from some 31 May NOI and June NOI.( 30-60 days processing time). July NOI receiver (457-459) most likely chose to wait for ITA on 7th Aug which didn't happen. Those who have 456 and lower score will apply for nominations so there will be no PNP nomination from July NOI.
 
Last edited:

Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
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@Dheana90
I opened face's profile to click on ignore but it shows the message "This member limits who may view their full profile.". How did you ignore his posts?
Yeah, I did the same thing few months back. But that time s/he hasn't put limitation on his audience I think. That's why I was able to click the ignore button, dear.
 
Last edited:

Punitsingh

Hero Member
Jul 27, 2018
549
403
There has to be 3600/21= 171.42 per day addition of 465+ candidates if CRS going to be around 465 on 14th August, which is quite realistic.

For example, Rough idea of per day addition of 451+ is 280, from which it can be calculated that 465+ is 175

Hence CRS is going to lie somewhere 466 +/- 1

However I believe, ita can be 3900 hence CRS May drop further.
 

Punitsingh

Hero Member
Jul 27, 2018
549
403
There has to be 3600/21= 171.42 per day addition of 465+ candidates if CRS going to be around 465 on 14th August, which is quite realistic.

For example, Rough idea of per day addition of 451+ is 280, from which it can be calculated that 465+ is 175

Hence CRS is going to lie somewhere 466 +/- 1

However I believe, ita can be 3900 hence CRS May drop further.
However it will be interesting to see that when the last 3 week gap occurred at that time there was a 3350/21= 160 per day addition of 457+ candidates and now I am considering 172 per day addition of 465+ candidates
 

Midnight Blessing

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Mar 16, 2017
888
683
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27-01-2022
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17-02-2022
Ok. I know that our CRS internal tracker is not a real reflection of the actual CRS pool size but lets make some estimation calculation based on the internal tracker and my previous calculations.

Assume that by next Wednesday the 14th, there will be:
1000 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
500 of 462
500 of 460
1658 of 451-459.

If CIC issues 3,600 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 460.
3,600 minus:
1000 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
500 of 462
100 of 460

If CIC issues 3,900 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 460.
3,900 minus:
1000 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
500 of 462
400 of 460

If CIC issues 4,000 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 460.
3,600 minus:
1000 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
500 of 462
500 of 460

Suppose, there will be:
1500 of 1053+ score (PNP)

If CIC issues 3,600 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 462.
3,600 minus:
1,500 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
100 of 462

If CIC issues 3,900 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 462.
3,600 minus:
1,500 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
400 of 462

If CIC issues 4,000 ITAs, the cut off will be approximately 462.
3,600 minus:
1,500 of 1053+ score (PNP)
500 of 484
500 of 479
500 of 467
500 of 463
500 of 462

Not all of OINP Tech NOI receivers in June- July will apply for nominations straightaway. Especially those who are sitting at 457-460 as they were waiting for general draw and hoping to get ITA on 7th Aug. The PNP nominations who will be on next week draw probably those from some 31 May NOI and June NOI.( 30-60 days processing time). July NOI receiver (457-459) most likely chose to wait for ITA on 7th Aug which didn't happen. Those who have 456 and lower score will apply for nominations so there will be no PNP nomination from July NOI.
thats a very logical and calculative representation of the ITA's and cutoffs my friend. well done. I just have a simple question, though you have used the internal tracker for finding out the distribution number but is there any logical derivation or past data analysis behind concluding that there will be around 2000 people from 463 to 500? This ll definitely determine what might be the cutoff next week.
 

Midnight Blessing

Hero Member
Mar 16, 2017
888
683
Category........
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Visa Office......
SGVO
Passport Req..
27-01-2022
VISA ISSUED...
17-02-2022
There has to be 3600/21= 171.42 per day addition of 465+ candidates if CRS going to be around 465 on 14th August, which is quite realistic.

For example, Rough idea of per day addition of 451+ is 280, from which it can be calculated that 465+ is 175

Hence CRS is going to lie somewhere 466 +/- 1

However I believe, ita can be 3900 hence CRS May drop further.

woah, thats scary. 170+ per day with 465+ is quite a daunting figure. bro, when do you think the cutoff can reach 463 again? whats your realistic assumption tells?