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Ray of Hope - 123rd Draw

Kenneth89

Hero Member
Jun 1, 2019
405
192
Correction guys.
On my previous prediction, I mistakenly put (3600-262) in 601-1200 range, where it should be 3,660 - 407 (262 + 145). So, after the 24th July draw the CRS distribution should look like:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-407=3,193)
451-600 = 3,990 (7,183- 3,193)
441-450 =7,711

So, by 7th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 =406 (29x14days)
451-600 =6,762(3,990+2772(198x14days))
441-450 = 8,103(7,711 + 392(28x14days))

I estimated that with 3,990 candidates left in the range of 451-459,there were must be around 550 candidates having 459, maybe 800-1100 having 458 and the rest 2,340 are those between 451-457. By 7th August, there will be around 2772 candidates added to the pool in the score range of 451-600. Suppose from those, 1772 are having 458-600 points (772 of 459+ score and 1000 of 458 score) , and the other 1000 are having 451-457 points. Thus, if you added up 1,650 people having 458-459 from 24th July draw + 1772 people having 458-600 added until 7th August. Total is 3,422.

Thus,
with 3,600 ITA the cut off score will approximately 457-458
3,600 minus:
406(601-1200)
550 (459 left from 24th July)
772(459+ up to 7th Aug)
1,100 (458 left from 24th July)
772 (1,000 of 458 score up to 7th Aug)

with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 456-457.
3,900 minus:
406(601-1200)
550 (459 left from 24th July)
772(459+ up to 7th Aug)
1,100 (458 left from 24th July)
1,000 (458 score up to 7th Aug)
72( 2,340 of 451-457 candidates left on 24th July).














Your calculations are always correct. The last time u did a calculation and it was accurate in yesterday's draw.i believe in this your predictions
 

Punitsingh

Hero Member
Jul 27, 2018
549
403
Guys, just figured out that this draw was exceptional in terms of huge PNP approvals from 19th to 24th July hence the CRS drop was below our expectations:

10th July draw cleared below accumulation:
462: 60 days (11th May to 10th July)
461: 70 days
460: 41 days( 1st May to 11th jun)

Total: 171 days accumulations were cleared after clearing all 463+ candidates

Accumulation cleared by 24th July draw:
460: 43 days (11th jun to 24th jul)
459: 25 days
Also in comparison to 10th jul draw, 24th jul draw also invested some of its quota to clear newly added 460 (14 days) and 461 (14days) candidates

Hence total positions cleared by 24th July draw after clearing 463+ candidates were: 43+25+14+14= 96

While a 3600 ita has tendency to clear 171 accumulation as done by 10th jul draw

Howcome 24th July just cleared 96 days accumulation instead of 171?

Below are two possible answers to this:

1. High influx of high scoring candidates, which I doubt as such situations don’t change in just 14 days

2. High no of PNP issued from 19th to 24th July which ate up the capacity of this draw to remove 171 days accumulation and hence only 96 days accumulation was removed.

If option 2 is true then we can rule out the possibility of CRS 459 in next draw and it will be 458
 

NikSharma01

Champion Member
Jan 3, 2019
1,624
1,210
I believed that the cut-off would have been 457-458 in yesterday's draw. Infact, it had to. However, we'd been disappointed with only 1 point drop. The primary reason is the sudden distribution of Nominations on Tuesday and even on the D-day itself, which resulted in the surprised increase in the influx of PNP applicants, and thus the cut-off was affected.

As per my understanding, the actual cut-off was 457-458, but due to the intensity of boosted points by the nominations (nearly 500-700), the cut-off went back to 459. Now, I seriously believe it will be somewhere 457-458. Rest is upto the CIC. o_O
 

Punitsingh

Hero Member
Jul 27, 2018
549
403
I believed that the cut-off would have been 457-458 in yesterday's draw. Infact, it had to. However, we'd been disappointed with only 1 point drop. The primary reason is the sudden distribution of Nominations on Tuesday and even on the D-day itself, which resulted in the surprised increase in the influx of PNP applicants, and thus the cut-off was affected.

As per my understanding, the actual cut-off was 457-458, but due to the intensity of boosted points by the nominations (nearly 500-700), the cut-off went back to 459. Now, I seriously believe it will be somewhere 457-458. Rest is upto the CIC. o_O
Very true, last draw cud not clear much accumulation as was done by 10th jul draw and high pnp seems the only culprit
10 jul: 171 days accumulation cleared
24th jul: only 96 days , strange
 

NikSharma01

Champion Member
Jan 3, 2019
1,624
1,210
Very true, last draw cud not clear much accumulation as was done by 10th jul draw and high pnp seems the only culprit
10 jul: 171 days accumulation cleared
24th jul: only 96 days , strange
Exactly! Otherwise the scenario would have been very clear, free from any complications. However, Similar impact could be witnessed in the next month and moreover, in September/October FST draw is due to be held. All these things will slow down the pace of CRS decrease for a while.

Meanwhile, you never know if the ITAs are increased to 3900 or 4100. So, being hopeful is the only key here. Good luck fellas.
 

Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6332
Ahh! You should have maintained it ie everyone should start appearing in ielts again at least 6 months before expiry date
Well. I thought that I don't need it since I was hoping to get ECA from WES sooner. But It got delay because of high volume of applicants the received. and the cut off score kept on increasing since Feb. :(
 

blessedveev

Member
Jul 25, 2019
13
17
CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS

CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on July 24th 9:50 pm UTC):-
  • 460+ (Total 0)
  • 455-460 (Total 49) – nogachan301185: 459 | ExpressMan: 459 | Punitsingh: 459 | atuls: 459 | mehr_ibrahim: 459 | imusi: 458 | Khanstan: 458 | Barinderpal: 458 | Kathy.m: 458 | SimAneja: 458 | hungta: 458 | MuibKhan: 458 | chirkut: 458 | Kenneth89: 458 | Herlo: 458 | vivi153: 458 | Dhaval Trivedi: 458 | jollystripes: 458 | jjk505: 458 | Milanarora: 457 | jamlabhai: 457 | #EEC: 457 | Priyasehgal22: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | diju:457 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | Teenz: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | bhanu1986: 456 | tharibak: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Angel1113: 456| missusd:456 | Akshay10: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | yigitsk: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455
  • 450-454 (Total 42) - nadal87: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | SG1507: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | rose1207: 453 | strawy96: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | vivosvoco: 453 | Maya53: 453 | Uchyann: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Woqi114: 451 | cdddelhi: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | praveen22: 451 | captainUT: 451 | tonydlaw24: 451 | Chuaxin1: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | mamuso: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 |
  • 445-449 (Total 60) - Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | dappy9: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 |nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | ssimmigration19: 449 | os32: 449 | patel_d07: 448 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | ArsheyaBegum: 447 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | prince_lords:445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445
  • 441-444 (Total 40)- Shaanoh: 444 | NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | nns14: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| Lena32: 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | Sony K Koshy: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441
  • 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435
  • Below 435 (Total 6) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421
Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list. Also, if someone in the list with 459 got ITA please let me know.
Hi! New here

CRS- 456

I’m a bit skeptical about the high CRS profiles that enter the pool few days or hours before the draw. I think they are responsible for the high CRS cutoffs. There are rumors that people are currently doing illegal stuff to get high CRS like false claims of 3yrs work experience and more. I think this is selfish on their part. Here’s hoping CIC fishes illegal applications out soon enough.
 
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Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6332
That's highly disappointing. Due to this you're left with no choice of re-attempting. I wish you will crack it again this time. :)
Amen to that. I think I'm gonna book the test around Aug 10ish. So, I will get the result before 21st Aug draw.

And yeah, I'm expecting the score will come up in that draw or Sept draws as PNP nomination from July's draw will be approved around that time,right?

So, I'm a lil worried that CLB 9 won't be enough for me in order to make it above the cut off score.
 
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Kenneth89

Hero Member
Jun 1, 2019
405
192
Guys, just figured out that this draw was exceptional in terms of huge PNP approvals from 19th to 24th July hence the CRS drop was below our expectations:

10th July draw cleared below accumulation:
462: 60 days (11th May to 10th July)
461: 70 days
460: 41 days( 1st May to 11th jun)

Total: 171 days accumulations were cleared after clearing all 463+ candidates

Accumulation cleared by 24th July draw:
460: 43 days (11th jun to 24th jul)
459: 25 days
Also in comparison to 10th jul draw, 24th jul draw also invested some of its quota to clear newly added 460 (14 days) and 461 (14days) candidates

Hence total positions cleared by 24th July draw after clearing 463+ candidates were: 43+25+14+14= 96

While a 3600 ita has tendency to clear 171 accumulation as done by 10th jul draw

Howcome 24th July just cleared 96 days accumulation instead of 171?

Below are two possible answers to this:

1. High influx of high scoring candidates, which I doubt as such situations don’t change in just 14 days

2. High no of PNP issued from 19th to 24th July which ate up the capacity of this draw to remove 171 days accumulation and hence only 96 days accumulation was removed.

If option 2 is true then we can rule out the possibility of CRS 459 in next draw and it will be 458











This is exactly what I was trying to explain before, the reason for the increase was as a result of the PNP applicant that got approval. If at 19th July they were already 262. And approvals were giving upto 24th, u could imagine the effect it will have on the CRS score. In my own opinion I think the number of PNP that has gotten approval as at 24th is over 60% given that it takes 30 to 60 days to get approval. Some would gave gotten inbetween. So my prediction is still goes with dhean calculations. Which is 457-458
 
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Kiran Sandhu

Newbie
Jul 25, 2019
7
0
A lawyer in canada has offered LMIA for administrative position in health care field for 16000 CAD.
I am a nursing graduate. Should I take it?
My CRS is 435 and I need to raise my score. I already have CLB 9 so there is nothing much I can do to improve my score except to consider this LMIA option.
Please help!!