Ray of Hope - 123rd Draw

[Herlo]

When did u create yours?

15 - June bro..

 

[db79]

Is it possible to do the medical tests and request for the bank letter in advance even though I've not yet received an ITA?

 

[Rajatsharma2304]

You missed the golden chance my friend and I'm really surprised that you didn't even check your CIC account or personal email Inbox.

Ontario provide 45 days time to submit your application from the day you receive NOI. I'm sorry to say, your NOI is no longer valid now.

This is really sad to see people are giving too much attention to this forum but not checking their CIC accounts on regular intervals. A Big mistake!

Can I write to anyone or do something about it to give it a chance?

 

[Herlo]

Is it possible to do the medical tests and request for the bank letter in advance even though I've not yet received an ITA?

Same question.. how long are the below 3 valid?
Indian PCC
Medical certificate
Bank letter

 

[Rajatsharma2304]

You missed the golden chance my friend and I'm really surprised that you didn't even check your CIC account or personal email Inbox.

Ontario provide 45 days time to submit your application from the day you receive NOI. I'm sorry to say, your NOI is no longer valid now.

This is really sad to see people are giving too much attention to this forum but not checking their CIC accounts on regular intervals. A Big mistake!

Can I create another profile if it's not against the rules? May be I get the NOI again. What's your take?

 

[13nitinsharma]

Same question.. how long are the below 3 valid?
Indian PCC
Medical certificate
Bank letter

1. Indian PCC - 6 Months
2. Medicat Certificate - 1 Year
3. Bank Letter - Most Recent

 

[Punitsingh]

Don’t create new one, if they search again they will pick old one too

 

[13nitinsharma]

Can I create another profile if it's not against the rules? May be I get the NOI again. What's your take?

No need to create a new one. If Ontario conducts another OINP draw with your NOC in demand, you'll get NOI.

Now, you can't do anything with your previous NOI, it's expired now.

 

[Kenneth89]

15 - June bro..

We will get our ITA nxt round!

 

[Dheana90]

CRS distribution estimation (441-1,200 range) and 7th August CRS cut off prediction are below:

July 5th CRS distribution are:
601-1,200 =312
451-600 =6,305
441-450 =7,169

It means, in 9 days from 26th June to 5th July, there were:

601-1,200 = 35profile/day (312/9)
451-600 =243prof/day(6305-4120=2185/9)
441-450 =30profile/day (7,169-6,895=274/9)

By 10th July, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =487 (312+ 175(35x5days))
451-600 =7,520(6,305+ 1,215(243x5))
441-450 = 7,319(7,169 + 150(30x5))

After the 10th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-487=3,113)
451-600 = 4,407 (7,520- 3,113)
441-450 =7,319

July 19th CRS distributions were:
601-1,200 =262
451-600 =6,193
441-450 =7,571

It means, in 9 days from 10th July to 19th July, there were:

601-1,200 = 29profile/day (262/9)
451-600 =198p'file/day(6,193-4,407=1,786/9)
441-450 =28profile/day (7,571-7,319=252/9)

By 24th July, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =407 (262+ 145(29x5days))
451-600 =7,183(6,193+ 990(198x5))
441-450 = 7,711(7,571+ 140(28x5))

After today, 24th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-262=3,338)
451-600 = 3,843 (7,183- 3,338)
441-450 =7,711

Those 3,843 profile left in 451-600 are only those who have score of 451-459 only now. As the tie break was May 25th, it is evident that there were huge amount of profiles having 460+ scores after the 10th July draw because even with 3,338 invitation left, the cut of score was drop by 1 point only. The good thing is that the 451-459 profiles are decreasing thanks to the 3600 ITAs and the slow influx of high scorer profile entering the pool.

By 7th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 =406 (29x14days)
451-600 =6,615(3,843+2772(198x14days))
441-450 = 8,103(7,711 + 392(28x14days))

With 3600 ITAs
The cutoff score will be around 455-457


With 3900 ITAs
The cutoff score will be around 453-455

Correction guys.
On my previous prediction, I mistakenly put (3600-262) in 601-1200 range, where it should be 3,660 - 407 (262 + 145). So, after the 24th July draw the CRS distribution should look like:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-407=3,193)
451-600 = 3,990 (7,183- 3,193)
441-450 =7,711

So, by 7th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 =406 (29x14days)
451-600 =6,762(3,990+2772(198x14days))
441-450 = 8,103(7,711 + 392(28x14days))

I estimated that with 3,990 candidates left in the range of 451-459,there were must be around 550 candidates having 459, maybe 800-1100 having 458 and the rest 2,340 are those between 451-457. By 7th August, there will be around 2772 candidates added to the pool in the score range of 451-600. Suppose from those, 1772 are having 458-600 points (772 of 459+ score and 1000 of 458 score) , and the other 1000 are having 451-457 points. Thus, if you added up 1,650 people having 458-459 from 24th July draw + 1772 people having 458-600 added until 7th August. Total is 3,422.

Thus, with 3,600 ITA the cut off score will approximately 457-458
3,600 minus:
406(601-1200)
550 (459 left from 24th July)
772(459+ up to 7th Aug)
1,100 (458 left from 24th July)
772 (1,000 of 458 score up to 7th Aug)

with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 456-457.
3,900 minus:
406(601-1200)
550 (459 left from 24th July)
772(459+ up to 7th Aug)
1,100 (458 left from 24th July)
1,000 (458 score up to 7th Aug)
72( 2,340 of 451-457 candidates left on 24th July).

 

[NikSharma01]

My 2nd ECA is from WES as well.

With my second ECA, I can claim 2 or more certificates and with CLB 10, my score should be 474 and 462 with CLB 9,dear @NikSharma01.

Oh that's great. Well, even with CLB 9 you'll be safe. You'll be through in very next draw after the updation of the crs points. When are expecting it? Any clue!?

Anyways, Good luck for it.

 

[Dheana90]

Oh that's great. Well, even with CLB 9 you'll be safe. You'll be through in very next draw after the updation of the crs points. When are expecting it? Any clue!?

Anyways, Good luck for it.

WES gave me the due for completion date of my 2nd ECA on 9th Aug...so I will missed the next draw.
I'm planning to sit for CD IELTS exam after 7th Aug draw,dear...

 

[NikSharma01]

WES gave me the due for completion date of my 2nd ECA on 9th Aug...so I will missed the next draw.
I'm planning tobsit for CD IELTS exam after 7th Aug draw,dear...

Oh, good to go then. I don't think you gonna need a CLB 10 to grab an ITA during that, considering your crs to be 462.

 

[Dheana90]

Oh, good to go then. I don't think you gonna need a CLB 10 to grab an ITA during that, considering your crs to be 462.

Yeah. Thanks dear but for that I need to get 7 in Writing first, hahaha

 

[Dream Come-True]

Yeah. Thanks dear but for that I need to get 7 in Writing first, hahaha

I have booked for computer delivered ielts on 30th July..results can come on 6th. 7th is draw. Thrilled