Looks like u are considering only 451-600 candidates in above calculation, what about 600-1200 candidates?More info for why I think the score would be in the range of 455-457:
After 24th July draw, I predicted that From 3,843 people left in the range of 451-459, were must be only around 500 candidates having 459, maybe 750-1000 having 458 and the rest 2343 are those between 451-457. By 7th August, there will be around 2772 candidates added to the pool in the score range of 451-600. Suppose from those, 1772 are having 458-600 points, and the other 1000 are having 451-457 points. Thus, if you added up 1500 people having 458-459 from 24th July draw + 1772 people having 458-600 added until 7th August. Total is 3272. There will be 328 Extra ITA left for those having 451-457. But I guess those gonna go to the 455-457, depends on the how manu are there in the pool.
Remember that it's only estimation. The range of 451-600 in the pool can be less or more than 6,615. Thank you
Ray of Hope - 123rd Draw
- Thread starter 13nitinsharma
- Start date
More info for why I think the score would be in the range of 455-457:
After 24th July draw, I predicted that From 3,843 people left in the range of 451-459, were must be only around 500 candidates having 459, maybe 750-1000 having 458 and the rest 2343 are those between 451-457. By 7th August, there will be around 2772 candidates added to the pool in the score range of 451-600. Suppose from those, 1772 are having 458-600 points, and the other 1000 are having 451-457 points. Thus, if you added up 1500 people having 458-459 from 24th July draw + 1772 people having 458-600 added until 7th August. Total is 3272. There will be 328 Extra ITA left for those having 451-457. But I guess those gonna go to the 455-457, depends on the how manu are there in the pool.
Remember that it's only estimation. The range of 451-600 in the pool can be less or more than 6,615. Thank you
Super bro!!! I think your calculations make sense. Great work.
More info for why I think the score would be in the range of 455-457:
After 24th July draw, I predicted that From 3,843 people left in the range of 451-459, were must be only around 500 candidates having 459, maybe 750-1000 having 458 and the rest 2343 are those between 451-457. By 7th August, there will be around 2772 candidates added to the pool in the score range of 451-600. Suppose from those, 1772 are having 458-600 points, and the other 1000 are having 451-457 points. Thus, if you added up 1500 people having 458-459 from 24th July draw + 1772 people having 458-600 added until 7th August. Total is 3272. There will be 328 Extra ITA left for those having 451-457. But I guess those gonna go to the 455-457, depends on the how manu are there in the pool.
Remember that it's only estimation. The range of 451-600 in the pool can be less or more than 6,615. Thank you
And for this who think the score will remain same as 459 nxt draw , want to quickly remind you that as at 26th June when the draw was conducted only about 30% of 462 applicant were collected. Placing he tie breaking rule at may 11. So almost same scenario happened yesterday...And it didn't stop the July 10 draw not to decrease by 2point. Am of the opinion that the nxt cut off will be 457.
I was 452, lost 5 points last week... lets not loose hope... will see.. Miracle may happenYa..even I am in 455..5 points gets reduced by August birthday. Feeling devastated
Ok. Suppose there will be about 262-300 from 601-1200 range then 28 candidates will be picked up with 457 scores.
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Intelligent thought bro.
Let me add something to it, to justify that there will not be a 2 point decrease on 7th aug due to below differences in 10th July and 7th aug situation:
1.
10th July: there was accumulation of upto 10th July on 460,461,462
7th Aug: extra 4 week accumulation on targeted 459,458 , hence resistance will be higher than it was on 460,61,62 on 10 July
2.
10 July: before starting to clear accumulation of 460,61,62 on 10july it first had to clear newly added 463+ candidates during previous 14 days
7 Aug: before starting to clear accumulation of 459,458 on 7th Aug, it will have to first clear newly added 460+ candidates also
Now see the difference, 7th aug will have some extra burden as compared to 10july
And above logic goes true wid every next draw, that’s way rate of decrease in CRS points will have to fall with each new draw
470–465: 5 point decrease
465-462: 3 point decrease
462-460: 2 point decrease
460-459: 1 point decrease
459-xxx: u can easily predict this
Ok, fine but with what u have explained now if am getting u is that there will be no point decrease in the nxt draw?
Well let's wait and see bro.. And besides what do u mean by middle 458 AND lower 459?
October 30th the could be the month with 3 draws. We'll have to wait and watch! ( October has 5 Wednesday's and the spacing will be 14days between each draw, as the first draw will be on the 4th of October)Is there any chance of B2B draw as July month has 5 Wednesdays