Even though, yes, the relatively minor increase in CSR score really is a GOOD thing, I agree with those that say it may not affect CSR score dramatically. At least, in August or September - EXCEPT it is increased again in the next few draws. That is a possibility, given precedence.
ITA 3350 - 470 to 465 CSR = 5 points decrease
ITA 3350 - 465 to 462 CSR = 3 points decrease
Now, inspite of increase of ITA to 3600 - 462 to 460 CSR = a mere 2 points decrease
At the risk of not sounding hyper hopeful
, and from my non-expert-statistician point of view, it confirms:
1) That that spike to 470 CSR did build up loads of applicants with CSR 462 and lower( like we all know)
2) If the number of daily additions of applicants with CSR between 460 and 455 and below continues, there isn't likely to be a drop in CSR beyond 2 points per draw.
That is clear because ITA of 3350 and 3600 both only led to 2 point drops.
Exception is if there presently are more people between 462 and 460, and less people between 460 below - data that isn't readily available
Sad to see that tie-break rule applied for June 11th! That's just half of the month of June. That means we still have lots of people btw 462 and 460 to be cleared - plus newcomers in this category!
In essence, we could safely estimate an average (I dare say a minimum)of 2 point drop in CSR cut-off, for the next 3 or 4 draws.
Can't predict what, after the next program-specific draw. Hopefully, there'll be no break at that time, bcos of that draw.
Definitely can't predict what, after elections.
My hope though, in spite of the realities, is that ITA will again increase - very very soon!
We are special, highly intellectual and skilled people and all this anxiety and uncertainty isn't a fun ride
Congrats again, to all who made the recent cut - if they are still on this forum
But then, this EE process is standard and needed... Nevertheless, hoping we all soon achieve our dreams, one way or the other.