Ray of Hope - 120th Draw

[SithLord]

As I congratulated @13nitinsharma , you deserve a round of applause for perfect prediction!! Please both of you predict for 26th June draw as well and give us the data model you guys are using to get the results.

I believe next cut-off should be around 462

If I'm correct IELTS results for June 1st candidates will be released on June 14th so that will increase the pool further. Computer based applicants have already entered the current pool.

Ofcourse, IQAS and WES results could also affect the pool this period. However, I don't think ECA makes a bigger impact on the pool the same way IELTS has in a matter of 2 weeks.

Now if there is a back to back draw after June 26. Then cut-off for July 3 could fall around 452-454 since IELTS will be on June 29th and results for paper/computer based will not be released before July 3 If they increase ITAs this could even drop to 450.

So everyone just pray there is back to back draw on June 26 and July 3.

 

[SithLord]

simce you are on a roll what is your prediction for the next one?

462

 

[sao_18]

Results: Rounds of invitations
Ministerial Instructions respecting invitations to apply for permanent residence under the Express Entry system – June 12, 2019

No program specified

See full text of Ministerial Instruction

Number of invitations issued: 3,350Footnote*

Rank required to be invited to apply: 3,350th or above

Date and time of round: June 12, 2019 at 11:59:22 UTC

CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 465

Tie-breaking rule: June 6, 2019 at 13:51:59 UTC

Many congratulations to those who've sailed through this waiting period! Good luck for future..

Mine is above 465 , I haven't received the ITA ... almost like 10hrs before the draw I checked my profile and did a minor change , is that a reason?? or will it take a while after draw to receive the ITA

 

[SithLord]

Mine is above 465 , I haven't received the ITA ... almost like 10hrs before the draw I checked my profile and did a minor change , is that a reason?? or will it take a while after draw to receive the ITA

Wait for 24 hours

 

[gursimran walia]

462

i m at 462 and my birthday on 24 july will i loose 5 points on 24 or

 

[indpnv]

Here is my prediction

465 - 12th June
464 +/- 1 - 26th June
462 +/1 - 10th July
461 +/-1 - 24th July
460 +1/-1 - 7th August
459 +1/-1 - 22nd August
PNP in September

Here now there are 5934 - 3350 = 2580 in the pool for 451-600
assuming

On 29th May there were 2003 people left
On 7th June the total is 5646
means in 14 days people added are : 5646 - 2003 = 3643

now assuming each day 3643 /14 = 260 people are added

then after 14 days the count be around 3643 again.

plus we will add the left over which is 2580

total 2580 + 3643 = 6223

6223 in the pool in 451- 600 range

Now in that case I am not sure how many 455+, 450+ and 460+

So, this is just my opinion please feel free to comment.
There is no way to understand how many people above 460-465 still there in the pool

Few questions

1.
How did you get this? "now there are 5934 - 3350 = 2580 in the pool for 451-600"

5934 is the number of profiles on June 7, Did you make an assumption that there were no profiles created from June 7 to today?

2.
Can you explain this? "On 29th May there were 2003 people left"
Edit : Did you do 5353 (Score from May 24) - 3350?

 

[SithLord]

i m at 462 and my birthday on 24 july will i loose 5 points on 24 or

Yes you will lose points on July 24

 

[Not_Your_Donkey_Kong]

I believe next cut-off should be around 462

If I'm correct IELTS results for June 1st candidates will be released on June 14th so that will increase the pool further. Computer based applicants have already entered the current pool.

Ofcourse, IQAS and WES results could also affect the pool this period. However, I don't think ECA makes a bigger impact on the pool the same way IELTS has in a matter of 2 weeks.

Now if there is a back to back draw after June 26. Then cut-off for July 3 could fall around 452-454 since IELTS will be on June 29th and results for paper/computer based will not be released before July 3 If they increase ITAs this could even drop to 450.

So everyone just pray there is back to back draw on June 26 and July 3.

For a 'Sith Lord' you are rather quite helpful.

 

[navjotbindra]

26th June: 462 (+/-1)
10th July: 458 (+/-1)

My worst case prediction for 12th July was 465 - and unfortunately, we saw the worst.

So I take the same set of worst case assumptions for forecasting the next 2 draws:

• 240 candidates with CRS over 450 enter the draw everyday.
• 75% of these are above 460
• Remaining 25% between 450-460

Given today's draw, it's unlikely that we will see a sub-450 cutoff anytime soon unless we have b2b draws or a draw of more than 3350 invitations.

Fingers crossed! Sitting on 460 myself. (however not in the pool yet, waiting for ECA which is taking forever)

 

[Mspa]

I believe next cut-off should be around 462

If I'm correct IELTS results for June 1st candidates will be released on June 14th so that will increase the pool further. Computer based applicants have already entered the current pool.

Ofcourse, IQAS and WES results could also affect the pool this period. However, I don't think ECA makes a bigger impact on the pool the same way IELTS has in a matter of 2 weeks.

Now if there is a back to back draw after June 26. Then cut-off for July 3 could fall around 452-454 since IELTS will be on June 29th and results for paper/computer based will not be released before July 3 If they increase ITAs this could even drop to 450.

So everyone just pray there is back to back draw on June 26 and July 3.

We can expect next draw on 19th June also...

 

[Mspa]

No

Why??Any specific reason??

 

[Jasmine1998]

Chances of 456 in July 10th draw??? Anybody??

 

[night1234]

With folks at 460's worried about their chances, my 449 look so bleak!

Hoping and praying for a back to back draw.

You need like 3-4 back to back draws.
chances are less than .01%

 

[ramank22787]

Any chances for 461 in next two draws?

 

[navjotbindra]

Chances of 456 in July 10th draw??? Anybody??

You are right on the edge in my view - you may just be able to make it if the 26th one is around 459-460. Anything more than that on 26th, and you are likely to miss on 10th.