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Ray of Hope - 120th Draw

S

sarak1812

Hero Member
May 21, 2019
300
67
indpnv said:
2003 remaining on 29th May would be incorrect right? Because 5353 is from May 24th and you need to factor in the profiles created from 24th May to 29th May.
Click to expand...
as per my understanding

2003 left on 29th May is very clear irrespective of people added between 24th to 29th because they are considered in the next draw calculation
along with 14 days calculation from 25th till 7th June.

Whoever adds profile between 24th to 29th May hardly matters because they are included on 2003.

See please understand the 5353 people were there in the pool til 24th but the draw was on 29th May
which clearly means if between 24th to 29th May anyone added the profile they were in that 2003 population.

And no one got ITA who was above 470 and added between 24th to 29th because the tie breaker was 23rd May

So, he was there with us till today in that 2003 pool leftover and probably he is removed from the pool today.

I hope I am able to convey my calculation

Please feel free to comment and advise
 
13nitinsharma

13nitinsharma

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2012
2,568
3,163
Canada
disappointed_87 said:
@13nitinsharma, please let me know how can you say that next draw will be less than 456 bro? Please guide me too.
Click to expand...
Mr. Disappointed, please cheer up. My prediction for next draw is below. The above one was for July 24th :)

PREDICTION FOR JUNE 26:

ITA’s : 3,350
CRS: 459-461

ITA’s: 3,500
CRS: 458-460

ITA’s: 3,750
CRS: 457-459

ITA’s: 3,900
CRS: 456-458
 
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D

disappointed_87

Full Member
Dec 28, 2018
33
4
13nitinsharma said:
Mr. Disappointed, please cheer up. My prediction for next draw is below. The above one was for July 24th :)
Click to expand...
Bro, life is playing so many games that it is very hard to believe what is going on:( My score will come down to 453 on July 9:( But do you think with 3350 it can reach to 457 or expecting them to increase their draw size. CIC is playing with us. They said they need more people but in the last year as well they didn't meet their targets.
 
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Not_Your_Donkey_Kong

Hero Member
Apr 19, 2019
321
331
30
Category........
FSW
navjotbindra said:
Back to back draws make very little sense right now. They can easily meet their target by giving 3350 invitations every 2 weeks for the rest of the year (they will in fact reach the target even if they miss a week in between)
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No. They cannot achieve their target with 3350 ITA's. The high target for this year is 86000 and low is 76000. They have issued only 38450 as of now, that's almost 50% of the low target.
Now in a perfectly closed system, that would be neck to neck, however since there is always wastage of ITA's (around 12-13% fail to convert into PR's), they won't be able to meet their target at this speed.

Also, it is quite unlikely that CIC ll actually be aiming at the low target, since they have previously shown an appetite for the high one.

Worst case, they 'd aim at the median which is 81400. Add to that the excess number of ITA's that ll be issued to compensate for ITA's lost and you are looking at a figure close to 90000.
A b2b draw or a raise in ITA's is inevitable. The real question is 'When'.
 
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navjotbindra

Full Member
Apr 16, 2019
24
18
Not_Your_Donkey_Kong said:
No. They cannot achieve their target with 3350 ITA's. The high target for this year is 86000 and low is 76000. They have issued only 38450 as of now, that's almost 50% of the low target.
Now in a perfectly closed system, that would be neck to neck, however since there is always wastage of ITA's (around 12-13% fail to convert into PR's), they won't be able to meet their target at this speed.

Also, it is quite unlikely that CIC ll actually be aiming at the low target, since they have previously shown an appetite for the high one.

Worst case, they 'd aim at the median which is 81400. Add to that the excess number of ITA's that ll be issued to compensate for ITA's lost and you are looking at a figure close to 90000.
A b2b draw or a raise in ITA's is inevitable. The real question is 'When'.
Click to expand...
Makes sense! I didn't count the wastage :) Still new at this.
 
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indpnv

indpnv

Hero Member
Mar 16, 2018
744
337
United States
sarak1812 said:
as per my understanding

2003 left on 29th May is very clear irrespective of people added between 24th to 29th because they are considered in the next draw calculation
along with 14 days calculation from 25th till 7th June.

Whoever adds profile between 24th to 29th May hardly matters because they are included on 2003.

See please understand the 5353 people were there in the pool til 24th but the draw was on 29th May
which clearly means if between 24th to 29th May anyone added the profile they were in that 2003 population.

And no one got ITA who was above 470 and added between 24th to 29th because the tie breaker was 23rd May

So, he was there with us till today in that 2003 pool leftover and probably he is removed from the pool today.

I hope I am able to convey my calculation

Please feel free to comment and advise
Click to expand...

Sorry I got to disagree with this.

Let me just explain my understanding.

May 24th: 5353 Profiles with 451+ score
May 29th: Draw happened with a cutoff of 470 with 3350 profiles removed from the pool.

You just can not do a 5353 - 3350 = 2003 and say that 2003 profiles remained on May 29th.
Because, you need to get the number of profiles added from May 24th to May 29th and add that to 5353 and then subtract with 3350.
This is because 5353 is from May 24th and not the pool count as of May 29th.
Assume 240 profiles/day (This can vary, Am just using some number).
So you get 5353+(5*240)-3350 = 3203 after the May 29th draw.

The below statement I didn't understand, as the tie breaker date is irrelevant here. Because May 23rd is used for the 470 profiles alone in case of a tie and it wouldn't matter for anyone < 470 as we are talking about profiles with 451+
"And no one got ITA who was above 470 and added between 24th to 29th because the tie breaker was 23rd May"
 
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sarak1812

Hero Member
May 21, 2019
300
67
indpnv said:
Sorry I got to disagree with this.

Let me just explain my understanding.

May 24th: 5353 Profiles with 451+ score
May 29th: Draw happened with a cutoff of 470 with 3350 profiles removed from the pool.

You just can not do a 5353 - 3350 = 2003 and say that 2003 profiles remained on May 29th.
Because, you need to get the number of profiles added from May 24th to May 29th and add that to 5353 and then subtract with 3350.
This is because 5353 is from May 24th and not the pool count as of May 29th.
Assume 240 profiles/day (This can vary, Am just using some number).
So you get 5353+(5*240)-3350 = 3203 after the May 29th draw.

The below statement I didn't understand, as the tie breaker date is irrelevant here. Because May 23rd is used for the 470 profiles alone in case of a tie and it wouldn't matter for anyone < 470 as we are talking about profiles with 451+
"And no one got ITA who was above 470 and added between 24th to 29th because the tie breaker was 23rd May"
Click to expand...
ok got it.
forgot to consider that 5 day calculation.
wrongly assumed 5353 till 29th May

yes then my tie breaker assumption also negates with the above correction.
 
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