Guys,
We all know one week and three week draws are slightly inconsistent with IRCC's mandate of conducting draws in a manner which is fair to all. On this forum itself, we have seen the kind of Carnage 30 Jan draw had..Some people were left in limbo for months and others got their ITA out of nowhere.
Let's say a one week draw occurs. There are people who will enter the pool after that draw at a borderline score. They all will witness the same level of frustration we went through post 30 Jan.
Just because it's an election year and elections are hardly 5 months away, I doubt IRCC will resort to either a three-week draw or a one-week draw. They would probably wish to exemplify the way to do it consistently.
Coming to draw size, this one can increase to 3500 or even 3750 at some point in the second half of the year.
The backlog of 446-450 is around 2500. Number of draws until elections is around 11. Thus, the backlog itself will take up 230 spots of each draw if we have to consider from 445. Otherwise, from 447 onwards, the backlog will consume around 150 slots in each draw.
In addition, we should also remember that while we had 3750 / 3900 draws last year, we also had couple of three-week draws between May and October.
Thus, if the draw size increases, it would likely go beyond 3500 at least until October. Subtracting 230 from 3500 gives 3270, which is not a par score for a cut-off of 445.
Here is the summary:
1. If a one-week draw happens, good for folks above 447 as they all will get through. In this case, we should not be surprised if the next draw post this one-week draw happens to be a three-week draw and cut-off may again go to high 450s.
2. If no one-week draw until October, CRS cut-off can eventually reach 447 by October, although I think it will hover around 448 almost.
All of this is only until elections. Anything can happen afterwards.
In summary, folks below 447, I would recommend you to step up your game. Give IELTS etc. It's unfortunate that IRCC couldn't predict the current situation in Dec/Jan and resorted to draws with highly volatile CRS.